Hawthorn vs Sydney | AFL Tipping

Round 2

Hawthorn 6th • 1-1

Sydney 1st • 2-0

MCG · Thu 19 Mar, 7:30 PM

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Recommendation

Hawthorn 64%

Medium

Margin: ~13 pts (1–46)

Hawthorn Sydney

64%

36%

Hawthorn gets the nod at the MCG despite Sydney's superior recent form, mainly because the Hawks enjoy a significant home-ground advantage and the Swans face the grind of interstate travel. Sydney's loss of key bodies in Billy Cootee and Ned Bowman leaves them threadbare, while Hawthorn, barring Henry Hustwaite, remain closer to full strength. The MCG conditions—mild and relatively dry—suit a home side that knows every blade of grass, and while Sydney have historically owned this matchup, they've never won at the G in this fixture, which looms large. It's moderate confidence territory, but the structural advantages favour the Hawks to break through here.

Roughie of the week: Sydney at $3.12. Model 36% vs market 30%. This is the value swing, not the main accuracy tip.

Match summary

Form · Rub of the green · Venue · Travel / turnaround

Form SYD · big edge

HAW Recent margin form is running 23.0 pts better. SYD

Rub of the green HAW · solid edge

HAW Hawthorn +3.8 pts HAW +2.2 · SYD -1.6 SYD

Venue HAW · solid edge

HAW true home ground, fortress edge SYD

Travel / turnaround HAW · small edge

HAW interstate travel SYD

Umpire Crew

How this crew has historically impacted each side

Rub of the green HAW +2.2 · SYD -1.6

Crew lean: Hawthorn +3.8 pts

Hawthorn Sydney

196 combined team-specific lined samples

Hayden Meyer No. 14

Hawthorn -2.9 pts 20 matches

Sydney +10.8 pts 23 matches

Simon Meredith No. 21

Hawthorn +2.8 pts 31 matches

Sydney -10.6 pts 35 matches

Martin Rodger No. 37

Hawthorn +13.0 pts 15 matches

Sydney +6.7 pts 5 matches

Jacob Mollison No. 32

Hawthorn -0.3 pts 32 matches

Sydney -1.9 pts 35 matches

Context

Weather ✓ Fine · 21.0°C · forecast Thu 19 Mar

Odds Hawthorn: $1.35 · Sydney: $3.12

Market line -19.5

Recent H2H Sydney lead the last 8 meetings 5-3 (MCG: 0-1)

Injury / Availability

Availability impact looks balanced this week

Hawthorn 1 out · 1 test

Minor impact

Key absences

Out

Henry Hustwaite

Tests / watchlist

Test Matt LeRay

Sydney 2 out · 2 tests

Minor impact

Key absences

Out

Billy Cootee

Out

Ned Bowman

Tests / watchlist

Test Isaac Heeney Test Tom Hanily

Injury list

Hawthorn

Out

Henry Hustwaite 3+ weeks

Test

Matt LeRay Test / uncertain

Sydney

Out

Billy Cootee 1-2 weeks

Out

Ned Bowman 3+ weeks

Test

Isaac Heeney Test / uncertain

Test

Tom Hanily Test / uncertain

Performance snapshot

Venue edge plus recent form and season-to-date situational rates.

Venue performance

MCG

Hawthorn Based on 105 completed games at MCG

Win rate 51%

Avg margin +4

Sydney Based on 32 completed games at MCG

Win rate 50%

Avg margin +0

Season performance

Hawthorn

Record 1-1

Avg margin +18

Upset win % 0%

Win % vs top 8 —

Home win % vs interstate —

Road win % vs interstate 0%

Sydney

Record 2-0

Avg margin +54

Upset win % —

Win % vs top 8 —

Home win % vs interstate 100%

Road win % vs interstate —

Last 5 this season

Hawthorn

vs Essendon +62 · Round 1

vs GWS -27 · Opening Round

Sydney

vs Brisbane Lions +44 · Round 1

vs Carlton +63 · Opening Round

Team selection

Official AFL team sheet · updated Thursday Mar 19, 2026

Hawthorn

Sydney

Selected team

FB [14] Jack Scrimshaw, [37] Tom Barrass, [4] Jarman Impey

HB [24] Josh Battle, [6] James Sicily, [15] Blake Hardwick

C [8] Dylan Moore, [28] Cam Mackenzie, [10] Karl Amon

HF [33] Jack Ginnivan, [11] Conor Nash, [5] Nick Watson

FF [30] Sam Butler, [2] Mitch Lewis, [19] Jack Gunston

FOL [17] Lloyd Meek, [3] Jai Newcombe, [23] Josh Weddle

IC [16] Massimo D'Ambrosio, [25] Josh Ward, [7] Ned Reeves, [9] Connor Macdonald, [18] Mabior Chol

EMG [1] Harry Morrison, [13] Calsher Dear, [41] Matt Hill

Selected team

FB [43] Lewis Melican, [30] Tom McCartin, [14] Callum Mills

HB [15] Sam Wicks, [22] Nick Blakey, [26] Riley Bice

C [13] Jai Serong, [27] Justin McInerney, [34] Matt Roberts

HF [10] Malcolm Rosas, [17] James Jordon, [37] Corey Warner

FF [36] Joel Amartey, [11] Tom Papley, [35] Charlie Curnow

FOL [4] Brodie Grundy, [8] James Rowbottom, [1] Chad Warner

IC [24] Dane Rampe, [12] Angus Sheldrick, [33] Caiden Cleary, [44] Jake Lloyd, [6] Logan McDonald

EMG [29] Joel Hamling, [19] Peter Ladhams, [2] Hayden McLean

Ins

None listed

Ins

[37] Corey Warner, [33] Caiden Cleary

Outs

None listed

Outs

Isaac Heeney - Injured, Errol Gulden - Injured