AFL Insights

Tips

← Prev 2026 Round 28
Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 1.50/2 tips (3rd easiest so far this season)

Highest confidence

Fremantle over Sydney

67% confidence · ~12 pts

Closest calls

Tightest decisions
HAW v BRL · 59% SYD v FRE · 67%

New tipping comp tool

Behind in your tipping comp?

The normal tips are below. If you need to chase, use the new ladder-gap tool after them to see which roughie gives you a real shot at making ground.

Show me the chase plan

What stands out

Round storylines

Record streak
Hawthorn
vs
Brisbane Lions
Thrashed

Brisbane were belted twice by 75+ this year - a hole almost no premier escapes

Brisbane lost by 78 to GWS (R11) and 76 to Carlton (R21) in 2026. Only twice in VFL/AFL history has a side lost two games by 75+ in a season and still won the flag - most recently Hawthorn in 1991.

Sample: 2
Match angle
Road favourites

The model and market back the road team in both prelims - history says that's a long shot

The host has won 29 of the last 40 preliminary finals (73%, 2006-2025), yet the tip model and bookmakers both favour the travelling team in each 2026 prelim - Fremantle at the SCG and Brisbane at the MCG. The road team has won both prelims in a single season only twice in 20 years: 2016, and 2020 in the COVID hub season when home/away was largely artificial.

Sample: 40

Preliminary Finals  ·  Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST

Sydney v Fremantle

SCG

Tip

67%
Fremantle

Medium confidence ~12 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 67.5 pts better.

Injury

Fremantle big edge Outs currently sit 12-3 across the two squads.

Preliminary Finals  ·  Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST

Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions

MCG

Tip

59%
Brisbane Lions

Medium confidence ~8 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 19.5 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Hawthorn big edge interstate travel · rest differential

Competition strategy

Ladder-gap strategy

Head-to-head against the current leader, assuming they follow the field favourite. It does not know field size or every rival's ladder position.

1 round modelled

Use 0 if level; use a negative number if you lead.

Chase Loading strategy

-- Leader result Head-to-head model read against one assumed leader. Shows chase odds when behind; otherwise shows tie or lead status.
-- Tips position Whether this plan projects you level or ahead of the assumed leader on correct tips.
-- Tip EV vs field Expected correct-tip gain or cost this round versus tipping with the favourites.
1 flip candidate this round 0 future flip candidates