AFL Insights

Tips

← Prev 2026 Round 10
Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 7.04/9 tips (4th easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Melbourne over Hawthorn

$2.92 · model 37% vs market 33%

Highest confidence

St Kilda over Richmond

88% confidence · ~51 pts

Closest calls

Tightest decisions
CAR v WBD · 59% MEL v HAW · 63%

What stands out

Round storylines

Fixture cluster
Geelong
5 of 6 top-8 opponents next up

Geelong walk into one of the rougher top-eight clusters left

5 of their next 6 are against sides currently in the top 8.

This week is the front edge of that fixture squeeze, not the end of it.

1 outside top 8 3 in their home state 3 interstate

Open match →

Streak oddity
GWS
L-W-L-W-L-W last 6

GWS have not repeated a result in over a month

Their last 6 read L-W-L-W-L-W.

Trying to pin a clean short-term trend on them has been awkward.

3-3 overall perfect alternation

Open match →

Round 10  ·  Thu 14 May, 7:30 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Geelong

Gabba

Tip

65%
Brisbane Lions

Medium confidence ~15 pts

Rub of the green

Brisbane Lions big edge Brisbane Lions +4.2 pts · BRL +7.2 · GEE +3.0

Weather

Geelong big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.
AI agrees 🌧 Wet
Full detail →

Round 10  ·  Fri 15 May, 7:30 PM AEST

Sydney v Collingwood

SCG

Tip

77%
Sydney

High confidence ~28 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 26.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Sydney big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
AI agrees Flat-track bully: SYD 🌧 Wet
Full detail →

Round 10  ·  Fri 15 May, 7:40 PM ACST

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide

TIO Stadium

Tip

77%
Gold Coast

High confidence ~25 pts

Rub of the green

Port Adelaide solid edge Port Adelaide +3.5 pts · GCS -5.4 · PORT -1.8

Travel / turnaround

Gold Coast solid edge travel turnaround · rest differential
💀 Bogey: GCS
Full detail →

Round 10  ·  Sat 16 May, 12:45 PM ACST

Adelaide v North Melbourne

Adelaide Oval

Tip

69%
Adelaide

Medium confidence ~11 pts

Travel / turnaround

Adelaide big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential

Venue

Adelaide big edge true home ground · fortress edge
AI agrees Flat-track bully: ADE 🌧 Wet
Full detail →

Round 10  ·  Sat 16 May, 4:15 PM AEST

Melbourne v Hawthorn

MCG

Tip

63%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~15 pts

Form

Melbourne solid edge Recent margin form is running 8.5 pts better.

Venue

Hawthorn solid edge shared venue softens the listed home edge
AI agrees Flat-track bully: HAW
Full detail →

Round 10  ·  Sat 16 May, 7:35 PM AEST

Carlton v Western Bulldogs

Marvel Stadium

Tip

59%
Western Bulldogs

Medium confidence ~6 pts

Form

Carlton big edge Recent margin form is running 20.5 pts better.

Injury

Carlton solid edge Outs currently sit 5-6 across the two squads.
AI dissent
Full detail →

Round 10  ·  Sun 17 May, 1:10 PM AEST

Essendon v Fremantle

MCG

Tip

81%
Fremantle

High confidence ~24 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 65.2 pts better.

Weather

Fremantle big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.
AI agrees 🌧 Wet
Full detail →

Round 10  ·  Sun 17 May, 3:15 PM AEST

St Kilda v Richmond

Marvel Stadium

Tip

88%
St Kilda

High confidence ~51 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 66.2 pts better.

Injury

St Kilda big edge Outs currently sit 7-17 across the two squads.
Full detail →

Round 10  ·  Sun 17 May, 4:15 PM AWST

West Coast v GWS

Optus Stadium

Tip

81%
GWS

High confidence ~26 pts

Form

GWS big edge Recent margin form is running 40.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

GWS solid edge GWS +2.9 pts · WCE -2.1 · GWS +0.8
AI agrees
Full detail →