AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 5.60/8 tips (3rd hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Melbourne over Gold Coast

$3.43 · model 42% vs market 28%

Highest confidence

Western Bulldogs over Essendon

88% confidence · ~71 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
NTH v CAR · 51%

Round 4  ·  Thu 2 Apr, 6:30 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Collingwood

Gabba

Tip

61%
Brisbane Lions

Medium confidence ~15 pts

Travel / turnaround

Brisbane Lions big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround

Weather

Collingwood big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.
🌧 Wet

Round 4  ·  Fri 3 Apr, 3:15 PM AEDT

North Melbourne v Carlton

Marvel Stadium

Tip

51%
North Melbourne

Coin toss confidence ~12 pts Coin toss

Form

North Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 19.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

North Melbourne big edge North Melbourne +5.3 pts · NTH -0.9 · CAR -6.2
Coin toss AI agrees

Round 4  ·  Fri 3 Apr, 6:45 PM ACDT

Adelaide v Fremantle

Adelaide Oval

Tip

58%
Adelaide

Medium confidence ~6 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 32.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Adelaide big edge Adelaide +5.0 pts · ADE +2.0 · FRE -3.0
AI agrees

Round 4  ·  Sat 4 Apr, 4:15 PM AEDT

Richmond v Port Adelaide

MCG

Tip

55%
Port Adelaide

Coin toss confidence ~7 pts

Form

Port Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 47.5 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Richmond solid edge interstate travel · rest differential

Round 4  ·  Sat 4 Apr, 4:35 PM AWST

West Coast v Sydney

Optus Stadium

Tip

81%
Sydney

High confidence ~25 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 66.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Sydney big edge Sydney +8.1 pts · WCE -1.0 · SYD +7.1
AI agrees Flat-track bully: SYD 💀 Bogey: WCE

Round 4  ·  Sun 5 Apr, 3:15 PM AEST

Melbourne v Gold Coast

MCG

Tip

58%
Gold Coast

Medium confidence ~18 pts

Form

Gold Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 37.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Gold Coast big edge interstate travel · rest differential

Round 4  ·  Sun 5 Apr, 7:20 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Essendon

Marvel Stadium

Tip

88%
Western Bulldogs

High confidence ~71 pts

Form

Western Bulldogs big edge Recent margin form is running 77.2 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Western Bulldogs big edge rest differential
Flat-track bully: WBD 💀 Bogey: ESS

Round 4  ·  Mon 6 Apr, 3:15 PM AEST

Hawthorn v Geelong

MCG

Tip

61%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~11 pts

Form

Hawthorn big edge Recent margin form is running 26.8 pts better.

Weather

Geelong big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.
🌧 Wet 💀 Bogey: HAW