AFL Insights

2026 season

Sydney

9-1 SCG
Ladder 1st Current position
Power +1.7 6th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -2.5
Injuries Major 7.4 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
GEE
Kardinia Park · Sat 23 May, 4:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Sydney

Sydney hold up vs top 8 sides (75%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (100%).

Avg next-5 win chance 58%
Falling Slightly favourable Injuries: Major

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 10.2 Slightly favourable · 58% avg win prob Toughest Geelong
A Tough
GEE Ladder 3rd · R11 · Kardinia 34% win · -1 pts
Our own injury load Interstate trip
H Favourable
RIC Ladder 18th · R12 · SCG 78% win
True form +33.1 advantage
H Favourable
STK Ladder 9th · R13 · SCG 61% win
True form +14.7 advantage
A Line ball
PORT Ladder 14th · R14 · Adel Oval 55% win
True form +23.0 advantage Interstate trip
A Favourable
BRL Ladder 7th · R16 · Gabba 60% win
True form +11.8 advantage Interstate trip

Projected 2.9 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Hot
Last 5 record 5-0
Margin Avg margin +27.6
H W
COL +6 · R10 Underperformed
A W
NTH +8 · R9 Underperformed
H W
MEL +17 · R8 Underperformed
A W
WBD +66 · R7 Overperformed
H W
GWS +41 · R6 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Major 94% 5 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Matt Roberts 2-4 weeks
Errol Gulden 7-9 weeks
Ned Bowman 1-2 weeks
Taylor Adams 6 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +1.7
Lower League avg Stronger
6th power rank
Ladder rank 1st
True form 13.9
Cool Par Strong
3rd
Record 9-1
TFR momentum -2.5
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +38.8
Injury load 7.4 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 94%
Free-kick ladder 3rd +2.9
Close games 2-0 2 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Gold Coast
+32 Opp 8th R5 Norwood Oval

+27.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Hawthorn
-17 Opp 9th R2 MCG

+2.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.1
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 10.7
Upset win % 0% 1 game · low sample
Win % vs top 8 75% 4 games
Win % vs bottom 10 100% 6 games
Close game win % 100% 2 games · low sample
Home win % 100% 6 games
Away win % 75% 4 games
Interstate win % 80% 5 games
Favourite win % 100% 9 games
Underdog win % 0% 1 game · low sample
Fast start rate 50% Led at Q1 in 5 of 10 games
Comeback rate 100% 3 games
Lead held at siren 90% 10 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Sydney · After OR beat Carlton 132-69 (+63) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R1 beat Brisbane Lions 104-60 (+44) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R2 lost to Hawthorn 82-99 (-17) · Ladder 3rd Sydney · After R4 beat West Coast 163-35 (+128) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R5 beat Gold Coast 100-68 (+32) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R6 beat GWS 107-66 (+41) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R7 beat Western Bulldogs 126-60 (+66) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R8 beat Melbourne 131-114 (+17) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R9 beat North Melbourne 105-97 (+8) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R10 beat Collingwood 81-75 (+6) · Ladder 1st Sydney 1st OR R1 R2 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Brodie Grundy Ruck · 3rd league
117.6
Errol Gulden Mid · 4th league
116
Isaac Heeney Key fwd · 16th league
105.9
Justin McInerney Key fwd · 36th league
96.1
Nick Blakey Mid
88.8
Venue performance Ground split
SCG vs COL, MEL, GWS 5 games 100% +34.2 -4.6
Marvel Stadium vs NTH, WBD 2 games · low sample 100% +37.0 -1.8
One-off venues
Optus Stadium vs WCE 1 game · low sample 100% +128.0 +89.2
Norwood Oval vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +32.0 -6.8
MCG vs HAW 1 game · low sample 0% -17.0 -55.8
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Charlie Curnow 21 · 2.3 per game
Accuracy Malcolm Rosas 86.7% · 1.4 goals per game · 13 goals, 2 behinds from 15 shots
Goal Assists Chad Warner 13 · 1.3 per game
Marks inside 50 Joel Amartey 27 · 2.7 per game
Marks Callum Mills 59 · 5.9 per game
One-Percenters Tom McCartin 58 · 7.2 per game
Disposals Nick Blakey 263 · 26.3 per game
Clearances Brodie Grundy 64 · 6.4 per game
Contested Possessions Brodie Grundy 135 · 13.5 per game
Tackles James Rowbottom 66 · 6.6 per game
Clangers Brodie Grundy 62 · 6.2 per game
Free Kicks Against Brodie Grundy 31 · 3.1 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
3rd projected finish 16.1 wins 9W after 10 played
84% Wildcard round
Top 10
71% Home final
Top 6
58% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Port Adelaide

2-9 -20.4 avg margin · 11 games · Usable sample

Sydney have gone 2-9 against Port Adelaide across the last 10 seasons.