AFL Insights

2026 season

Sydney

18-5 SCG
Ladder 2nd Current position
Power +4.4 2nd in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: +0.9
Injuries Major 20.4 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
FRE
SCG · Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Sydney

Sydney are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (50%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (100%).

Avg next-5 win chance 33%
Stable Tough slate Injuries: Major

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Tough slate
Avg opp rank 1.0 Tough slate · 33% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle
H Tough
FRE Ladder 1st · PF · SCG 33% win · -12 pts
True form +1.4 advantage Our own injury load

Projected 0.3 wins from the next 1.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Red hot
Last 5 record 5-0
Margin Avg margin +51.6
H W
BRL +53 · F1 Overperformed
H W
NTH +53 · R24 Overperformed
A W
ESS +36 · R23 Underperformed
H W
PORT +97 · R22 Overperformed
A W
STK +19 · R21 Result

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Major 62% 13 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Isaac Heeney Season
Chad Warner Season
Nick Blakey Season
Callum Mills Season

As of 08 Sep 2026 · Worsening — more players out

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +4.4
Lower League avg Stronger
2nd power rank
Ladder rank 2nd
True form 15.5
Cool Par Strong
3rd
Record 18-5
TFR momentum +0.9
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +29.3
Injury load 20.4 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 62%
Free-kick ladder 4th +1.2
Close games 4-0 4 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Worst loss

L v Adelaide
-16 Opp 10th R19 SCG

-30.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.3
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 11.0
Upset win % 20% 5 games
Win % vs top 8 50% 10 games
Win % vs bottom 10 100% 14 games
Close game win % 100% 4 games
Home win % 92% 13 games
Away win % 64% 11 games
Interstate win % 64% 11 games
Favourite win % 95% 19 games
Underdog win % 20% 5 games
Fast start rate 54% Led at Q1 in 13 of 24 games
Comeback rate 67% 9 games
Lead held at siren 84% 19 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Sydney · After OR beat Carlton 132-69 (+63) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R1 beat Brisbane Lions 104-60 (+44) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R2 lost to Hawthorn 82-99 (-17) · Ladder 3rd Sydney · After R4 beat West Coast 163-35 (+128) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R5 beat Gold Coast 100-68 (+32) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R6 beat GWS 107-66 (+41) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R7 beat Western Bulldogs 126-60 (+66) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R8 beat Melbourne 131-114 (+17) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R9 beat North Melbourne 105-97 (+8) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R10 beat Collingwood 81-75 (+6) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R11 lost to Geelong 80-107 (-27) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R12 beat Richmond 170-56 (+114) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R13 beat St Kilda 104-102 (+2) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R14 beat Port Adelaide 93-90 (+3) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R16 lost to Brisbane Lions 83-126 (-43) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R17 beat Western Bulldogs 90-55 (+35) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R18 lost to Fremantle 73-111 (-38) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R19 lost to Adelaide 71-87 (-16) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R20 beat GWS 139-88 (+51) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R21 beat St Kilda 107-88 (+19) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R22 beat Port Adelaide 167-70 (+97) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R23 beat Essendon 112-76 (+36) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R24 beat North Melbourne 123-70 (+53) · Ladder 2nd Sydney 2nd OR R7 R12 R18 R24

Player power

Top 5 players

Errol Gulden Mid · 4th league
116
Isaac Heeney Key fwd · 8th league
107
Brodie Grundy Ruck · 12th league
106
Chad Warner Key fwd · 39th league
95.1
Nick Blakey Mid
88.1
Venue performance Ground split
SCG vs BRL, NTH, PORT 12 games 92% +42.4 +12.1
Marvel Stadium vs STK, NTH, WBD 3 games 100% +31.0 +0.7
Optus Stadium vs FRE, WCE 2 games · low sample 50% +45.0 +14.7
MCG vs ESS, HAW 2 games · low sample 50% +9.5 -20.8
One-off venues
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 100% +51.0 +20.7
Norwood Oval vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +32.0 +1.7
Adelaide Oval vs PORT 1 game · low sample 100% +3.0 -27.3
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -27.0 -57.3
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -43.0 -73.3
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Charlie Curnow 74 · 3.2 per game
Accuracy Malcolm Rosas 88.9% · 1.0 goals per game · 16 goals, 2 behinds from 18 shots
Goal Assists Chad Warner 30 · 1.4 per game
Marks inside 50 Charlie Curnow 69 · 3.0 per game
Marks Tom McCartin 139 · 6.6 per game
One-Percenters Tom McCartin 123 · 5.9 per game
Disposals Nick Blakey 564 · 25.6 per game
Clearances Brodie Grundy 138 · 6.3 per game
Contested Possessions Brodie Grundy 290 · 13.2 per game
Tackles James Rowbottom 143 · 6.5 per game
Clangers Brodie Grundy 113 · 5.1 per game
Free Kicks Against Brodie Grundy 57 · 2.6 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 4th Avg diff +1.2

Favourite umpires

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +12.7 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.6

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +10.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.8

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +8.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.2

Least favourite umpires

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -7.1 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.7

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -5.6 pts

52 matches · FK diff -0.9

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -5.5 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.1

Show all 36 umpire rows
Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +12.7 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.6

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +10.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.8

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +8.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.2

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +7.8 pts

14 matches · FK diff +0.8

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +5.9 pts

8 matches · FK diff -0.1

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +5.9 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.0

Jack Howard
Jack Howard +5.9 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +5.8 pts

28 matches · FK diff -2.1

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +5.6 pts

51 matches · FK diff -1.1

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +5.6 pts

7 matches · FK diff +3.0

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +5.3 pts

26 matches · FK diff -1.4

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +5.0 pts

27 matches · FK diff -2.6

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +4.8 pts

38 matches · FK diff -0.4

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +4.6 pts

10 matches · FK diff +0.8

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +4.5 pts

14 matches · FK diff +3.3

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger +3.8 pts

7 matches · FK diff -3.9

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +3.4 pts

10 matches · FK diff -1.9

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +2.9 pts

29 matches · FK diff -2.7

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +1.9 pts

29 matches · FK diff -1.5

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +1.8 pts

10 matches · FK diff +0.0

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +1.7 pts

10 matches · FK diff -3.2

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +0.6 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.9

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +0.6 pts

23 matches · FK diff +0.4

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -0.4 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.8

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -0.5 pts

43 matches · FK diff -0.6

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch -0.8 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.2

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -0.9 pts

7 matches · FK diff -0.9

Nick Brown
Nick Brown -1.1 pts

16 matches · FK diff +1.8

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -1.7 pts

46 matches · FK diff -0.4

John Howorth
John Howorth -2.0 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.2

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -2.6 pts

42 matches · FK diff -0.3

Justin Power
Justin Power -2.7 pts

22 matches · FK diff -0.1

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -2.7 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.7

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -5.5 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.1

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -5.6 pts

52 matches · FK diff -0.9

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -7.1 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.7

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Top 2 locked
2nd projected finish 19.7 wins 19W after 24 played
100% Wildcard round
Top 10
100% Home final
Top 6
100% Double chance
Top 4
100% Top 2
Top 2

Round 24 of 25 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

5-9-1 -16.3 avg margin · 15 games · Usable sample

Sydney have gone 5-9-1 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.