AFL Insights

2026 season

Sydney

13-4 SCG
Ladder 2nd Current position
Power +1.9 7th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: -0.3
Injuries Minor 5.9 pts
Confidence High High tipping confidence
Next opponent
ADE
SCG · Fri 17 Jul, 7:40 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Sydney profile is tip-friendly

Sydney hold up vs top 8 sides (62%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (89%).

Avg next-5 win chance 58%
Stable Slightly favourable Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 11.8 Slightly favourable · 58% avg win prob Toughest Adelaide
H Line ball
ADE Ladder 5th · R19 · SCG 52% win · +12 pts
True form +1.6 advantage Our own injury load
A Line ball
GWS Ladder 11th · R20 · ENGIE 52% win
True form +15.6 advantage
A Line ball
STK Ladder 10th · R21 · Marvel 54% win
True form +16.4 advantage Interstate trip
H Line ball
PORT Ladder 15th · R22 · SCG 55% win
True form +23.3 advantage
A Favourable
ESS Ladder 18th · R23 · MCG 78% win
True form +33.7 advantage Interstate trip

Projected 2.9 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend
Form heat Cold
Last 5 record 3-2
Margin Avg margin -8.2
A L
FRE -38 · R18 Underperformed
H W
WBD +35 · R17 Overperformed
A L
BRL -43 · R16 Underperformed
A W
PORT +3 · R14 Got Away With One
H W
STK +2 · R13 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 86% 7 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Justin McInerney 4-5 weeks
Sam Wicks 2-3 weeks
Peter Ladhams TBC
Joel Amartey 8 weeks

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +1.9
Lower League avg Stronger
7th power rank
Ladder rank 2nd
True form 13.8
Cool Par Strong
3rd
Record 13-4
TFR momentum -0.3
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +25.5
Injury load 5.9 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 86%
Free-kick ladder 4th +1.1
Close games 4-0 4 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Worst loss

L v Geelong
-27 Opp 3rd R11 Kardinia Park

-16.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.4
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 10.2
Upset win % 0% 4 games
Win % vs top 8 62% 8 games
Win % vs bottom 10 89% 9 games
Close game win % 100% 4 games
Home win % 100% 9 games
Away win % 50% 8 games
Interstate win % 56% 9 games
Favourite win % 100% 13 games
Underdog win % 0% 4 games
Fast start rate 53% Led at Q1 in 9 of 17 games
Comeback rate 71% 7 games
Lead held at siren 85% 13 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Sydney · After OR beat Carlton 132-69 (+63) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R1 beat Brisbane Lions 104-60 (+44) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R2 lost to Hawthorn 82-99 (-17) · Ladder 3rd Sydney · After R4 beat West Coast 163-35 (+128) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R5 beat Gold Coast 100-68 (+32) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R6 beat GWS 107-66 (+41) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R7 beat Western Bulldogs 126-60 (+66) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R8 beat Melbourne 131-114 (+17) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R9 beat North Melbourne 105-97 (+8) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R10 beat Collingwood 81-75 (+6) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R11 lost to Geelong 80-107 (-27) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R12 beat Richmond 170-56 (+114) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R13 beat St Kilda 104-102 (+2) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R14 beat Port Adelaide 93-90 (+3) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R16 lost to Brisbane Lions 83-126 (-43) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R17 beat Western Bulldogs 90-55 (+35) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R18 lost to Fremantle 73-111 (-38) · Ladder 2nd Sydney 2nd OR R5 R9 R13 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Isaac Heeney Key fwd · 7th league
109.3
Brodie Grundy Ruck · 8th league
109.1
Errol Gulden Mid · 19th league
104.6
Chad Warner Key fwd · 47th league
92.3
Callum Mills Mid
89.7
Venue performance Ground split
SCG vs WBD, STK, RIC 8 games 100% +40.2 +14.7
Optus Stadium vs FRE, WCE 2 games · low sample 50% +45.0 +19.5
Marvel Stadium vs NTH, WBD 2 games · low sample 100% +37.0 +11.5
One-off venues
Norwood Oval vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +32.0 +6.5
Adelaide Oval vs PORT 1 game · low sample 100% +3.0 -22.5
MCG vs HAW 1 game · low sample 0% -17.0 -42.5
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -27.0 -52.5
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -43.0 -68.5
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Charlie Curnow 50 · 3.1 per game
Accuracy Malcolm Rosas 88.9% · 1.2 goals per game · 16 goals, 2 behinds from 18 shots
Goal Assists Chad Warner 22 · 1.3 per game
Marks inside 50 Charlie Curnow 50 · 3.1 per game
Marks Tom McCartin 103 · 7.4 per game
One-Percenters Tom McCartin 86 · 6.1 per game
Disposals Nick Blakey 434 · 25.5 per game
Clearances Brodie Grundy 100 · 6.2 per game
Contested Possessions Brodie Grundy 211 · 13.2 per game
Tackles James Rowbottom 108 · 6.4 per game
Clangers Brodie Grundy 85 · 5.3 per game
Free Kicks Against Brodie Grundy 44 · 2.8 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 4th Avg diff +1.1

Favourite umpires

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +12.7 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.6

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +7.8 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.1

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +6.1 pts

50 matches · FK diff -0.9

Least favourite umpires

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -8.4 pts

12 matches · FK diff +0.0

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -7.1 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.7

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -6.6 pts

50 matches · FK diff -0.9

Show all 34 umpire rows
Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +12.7 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.6

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +7.8 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.1

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +6.1 pts

50 matches · FK diff -0.9

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +5.9 pts

8 matches · FK diff -0.1

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +5.9 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.0

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +5.8 pts

28 matches · FK diff -2.1

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +5.6 pts

7 matches · FK diff +3.0

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +5.3 pts

26 matches · FK diff -1.4

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +4.5 pts

14 matches · FK diff +3.3

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +3.8 pts

28 matches · FK diff -2.6

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger +3.8 pts

7 matches · FK diff -3.9

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +3.2 pts

37 matches · FK diff -0.5

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +2.9 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.8

Jack Howard
Jack Howard +2.4 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.8

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +2.1 pts

8 matches · FK diff -1.4

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +1.9 pts

29 matches · FK diff -1.5

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +1.8 pts

10 matches · FK diff +0.0

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +1.7 pts

10 matches · FK diff -3.2

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +1.7 pts

25 matches · FK diff -3.2

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +1.3 pts

9 matches · FK diff -2.9

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +0.6 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.9

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +0.6 pts

23 matches · FK diff +0.4

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +0.1 pts

42 matches · FK diff -0.5

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -0.9 pts

7 matches · FK diff -0.9

Nick Brown
Nick Brown -1.1 pts

16 matches · FK diff +1.8

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -1.5 pts

16 matches · FK diff +1.1

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -1.8 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.6

John Howorth
John Howorth -2.0 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.2

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -2.6 pts

42 matches · FK diff -0.3

Justin Power
Justin Power -2.7 pts

22 matches · FK diff -0.1

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -2.7 pts

44 matches · FK diff -0.8

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -6.6 pts

50 matches · FK diff -0.9

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -7.1 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.7

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -8.4 pts

12 matches · FK diff +0.0

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
2nd projected finish 16.4 wins 13W after 17 played
94% Wildcard round
Top 10
89% Home final
Top 6
78% Double chance
Top 4
51% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Port Adelaide

3-9 -18.4 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Sydney have gone 3-9 against Port Adelaide across the last 10 seasons.