AFL Insights
Jamie Broadbent

Umpire profile

Jamie Broadbent

No. 20 Heritage 446 Active Last officiated 4 Sep 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

31.2%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 109 · Baseline 28.3% · +2.9 pts

Victorian bias

+2.5 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 48 · Free-kick diff +1.0

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Adelaide
13 +6.8 pts +3.0
2
Geelong
22 +4.9 pts +1.4
3
Collingwood
24 +3.6 pts +0.6
4
Port Adelaide
22 +3.5 pts -1.0
5
Carlton
21 +1.2 pts -0.6
6
Brisbane Lions
15 +1.1 pts +0.7
7
Richmond
5 +1.0 pts -3.0
8
Western Bulldogs
22 +0.9 pts +0.5
9
Sydney
22 +0.6 pts +0.9
10
Gold Coast
18 +0.6 pts -1.4
11
St Kilda
18 +0.5 pts +1.6
12
Hawthorn
18 -0.6 pts -0.2
13
Fremantle
15 -0.8 pts -1.5
14
North Melbourne
8 -2.4 pts +0.0
15
Essendon
11 -3.6 pts -0.6
16
Melbourne
16 -6.2 pts +0.3
17
West Coast
8 -6.7 pts +0.4
18
GWS
20 -9.1 pts -2.8

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Adelaide 16.16 112 def. Port Adelaide 9.11 65 78

Round 20 · 29 Jul 2023 · Adelaide Oval

2.75 odds · 68% favourite · 47-pt win · 13.5-pt dog

Western Bulldogs 5.11 41 def. by St Kilda 14.8 92 77

Round 2 · 25 Mar 2023 · Marvel Stadium

2.62 odds · 66% favourite · 51-pt win · 11.5-pt dog

Hawthorn 17.8 110 def. Collingwood 6.10 46 74

Round 22 · 7 Aug 2025 · MCG

2.30 odds · 61% favourite · 64-pt win · 7.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 18.13 121 def. Hawthorn 14.7 91 69

Round 5 · 13 Apr 2025 · Adelaide Oval

2.85 odds · 69% favourite · 30-pt win · 15.5-pt dog

Sydney 14.14 98 def. by Fremantle 15.9 99 66

Round 16 · 29 Jun 2024 · SCG

4.80 odds · 83% favourite · 1-pt win · 27.5-pt dog