AFL Insights

Umpire analytics

Residual leaderboards

Residual margin versus the closing line is the headline stat. Free-kick differential stays as supporting context only.

Retired filter

Showing active umpires only

Retired means no officiated match since 1 Aug 2025, or missing both AFLUA link and shirt number. Active 41 ยท retired 58.

Minimum sample

4 lined matches

Anything on 4-6 matches is still shown, but marked low confidence.

Shrinkage

+8 match prior

Leaderboards rank the shrunk residual, so one hot patch does not jump the queue too quickly.

Victorian bias set

7 clubs

Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs

Overall favourite teams

Best club-umpire combinations

# Club Umpire Sample Residual Free-kick diff
1
Hawthorn
#38 Matthew Young 7 +16.0 pts +2.1
2
Western Bulldogs
#35 Peter Bailes 9 +15.6 pts +3.0
3
Essendon
#26 Craig Fleer 19 +13.9 pts -1.2
4
Geelong
#29 Andrew Heffernan 13 +13.5 pts +0.7
5
Adelaide
#3 Leigh Fisher 25 +13.4 pts +1.8
6
Sydney
#6 Daniel Johanson 17 +12.7 pts +1.6
7
Port Adelaide
#4 Justin Power 11 +12.4 pts +0.0
8
Adelaide
#17 John Howorth 16 +12.0 pts +0.5
9
Gold Coast
#38 Matthew Young 6 Low confidence +11.7 pts +4.3
10
Melbourne
#31 Paul Rebeschini 7 +11.3 pts -2.1
11
Fremantle
#4 Justin Power 27 +11.2 pts -0.7
12
Brisbane Lions
#21 Simon Meredith 43 +11.0 pts +0.3
13
Fremantle
#7 Cameron Jones 5 Low confidence +10.8 pts +8.0
14
Carlton
#13 Nick Brown 16 +10.8 pts -0.6
15
Fremantle
#32 Jacob Mollison 34 +10.7 pts -0.7
16
Western Bulldogs
#37 Martin Rodger 11 +10.7 pts +0.4
17
Brisbane Lions
#4 Justin Power 12 +10.3 pts +2.8
18
GWS
#25 Nathan Toner 12 +10.3 pts -2.1
19
Western Bulldogs
#11 Curtis Deboy 24 +10.3 pts +2.5
20
St Kilda
#39 Jordan Fry 8 +10.1 pts +1.4

Overall hated teams

Worst club-umpire combinations

# Club Umpire Sample Residual Free-kick diff
1
West Coast
#28 Cameron Dore 20 -15.0 pts +0.4
2
Brisbane Lions
#1 Nick Jankovskis 6 Low confidence -14.1 pts -2.8
3
Carlton
#16 Brendan Hosking 31 -13.9 pts +1.4
4
North Melbourne
#25 Nathan Toner 11 -13.1 pts -0.9
5
St Kilda
#14 Hayden Meyer 23 -12.4 pts -0.2
6
Essendon
#12 Andrew Stephens 22 -12.3 pts +1.0
7
Melbourne
#4 Justin Power 11 -12.2 pts -1.4
8
St Kilda
#35 Peter Bailes 6 Low confidence -11.9 pts -1.5
9
Carlton
#27 Andre Gianfagna 11 -11.4 pts -1.0
10
Port Adelaide
#14 Hayden Meyer 20 -11.4 pts -4.2
11
Gold Coast
#9 Matt Stevic 22 -11.2 pts +0.2
12
Fremantle
#3 Leigh Fisher 26 -11.0 pts -3.1
13
Richmond
#31 Paul Rebeschini 15 -10.8 pts -2.0
14
North Melbourne
#6 Daniel Johanson 12 -10.5 pts -3.0
15
Gold Coast
#7 Cameron Jones 6 Low confidence -10.4 pts -0.5
16
Melbourne
#39 Jordan Fry 5 Low confidence -10.2 pts +2.6
17
GWS
#14 Hayden Meyer 22 -10.1 pts -0.6
18
Western Bulldogs
#7 Cameron Jones 6 Low confidence -9.6 pts -0.5
19
Essendon
#25 Nathan Toner 16 -9.6 pts +0.1
20
Gold Coast
#32 Jacob Mollison 30 -9.5 pts +1.1

Victorian bias leaderboard

Positive means pro-Victorian-club

# Umpire Bias sample Bias score Free-kick diff
1 #19 Alex Whetton 58 +9.6 pts +0.2
2 #35 Peter Bailes 20 +9.4 pts +2.3
3 #38 Matthew Young 13 +9.1 pts +0.8
4 #9 Matt Stevic 121 +6.1 pts +1.1
5 #29 Andrew Heffernan 44 +5.8 pts -0.8
6 #8 Brett Rosebury 131 +5.5 pts -0.1
7 #33 Brent Wallace 71 +5.0 pts +0.7
8 #26 Craig Fleer 102 +4.4 pts -0.5
9 #18 Jack Howard 6 Low confidence +3.4 pts -0.2
10 #5 Jordyn Pearson 4 Low confidence +3.3 pts -1.2
11 #22 Nathan Williamson 90 +2.6 pts +0.7
12 #40 Harrison Birch 17 +2.6 pts +0.4
13 #20 Jamie Broadbent 47 +2.4 pts +1.1
14 #10 Rob O'Gorman 95 +1.7 pts +0.5
15 #37 Martin Rodger 33 +1.6 pts +0.5
16 #14 Hayden Meyer 89 +1.4 pts +1.7
17 #2 Nick Foot 102 +1.4 pts +0.4
18 #27 Andre Gianfagna 67 +0.8 pts +0.8
19 #17 John Howorth 64 +0.5 pts -1.1
20 #13 Nick Brown 61 +0.3 pts +1.0