AFL Insights

Umpire analytics

Residual leaderboards

Residual margin versus the closing line is the headline stat. Free-kick differential stays as supporting context only.

Retired filter

Showing active umpires only

Retired means no officiated match since 1 Aug 2025, or missing both AFLUA link and shirt number. Active 42 ยท retired 58.

Minimum sample

4 lined matches

Anything on 4-6 matches is still shown, but marked low confidence.

Shrinkage

+8 match prior

Leaderboards rank the shrunk residual, so one hot patch does not jump the queue too quickly.

Victorian bias set

7 clubs

Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs

Overall favourite teams

Best club-umpire combinations

# Club Umpire Sample Residual Free-kick diff
1
Hawthorn
#38 Matthew Young 7 +16.0 pts +2.1
2
Western Bulldogs
#35 Peter Bailes 10 +16.0 pts +1.9
3
Essendon
#26 Craig Fleer 19 +13.9 pts -1.2
4
Adelaide
#3 Leigh Fisher 25 +13.4 pts +1.8
5
Geelong
#29 Andrew Heffernan 14 +12.7 pts +0.6
6
Sydney
#6 Daniel Johanson 17 +12.7 pts +1.6
7
Gold Coast
#38 Matthew Young 6 Low confidence +11.7 pts +4.3
8
Adelaide
#17 John Howorth 17 +11.6 pts +0.9
9
Fremantle
#4 Justin Power 28 +11.4 pts -0.1
10
Brisbane Lions
#32 Jacob Mollison 37 +11.3 pts +0.6
11
Port Adelaide
#4 Justin Power 12 +11.3 pts +0.7
12
Melbourne
#31 Paul Rebeschini 7 +11.3 pts -2.1
13
Adelaide
#19 Alex Whetton 20 +10.8 pts -2.2
14
Carlton
#13 Nick Brown 16 +10.8 pts -0.6
15
Western Bulldogs
#37 Martin Rodger 11 +10.7 pts +0.4
16
Sydney
#24 Tom Bryce 5 Low confidence +10.6 pts +2.8
17
Brisbane Lions
#4 Justin Power 12 +10.3 pts +2.8
18
Adelaide
#24 Tom Bryce 5 Low confidence +10.3 pts -3.6
19
Western Bulldogs
#11 Curtis Deboy 24 +10.3 pts +2.5
20
Fremantle
#32 Jacob Mollison 35 +10.3 pts -0.6

Overall hated teams

Worst club-umpire combinations

# Club Umpire Sample Residual Free-kick diff
1
West Coast
#28 Cameron Dore 21 -14.9 pts +0.4
2
Brisbane Lions
#1 Nick Jankovskis 6 Low confidence -14.1 pts -2.8
3
Carlton
#16 Brendan Hosking 32 -13.1 pts +1.7
4
North Melbourne
#25 Nathan Toner 12 -12.4 pts -1.2
5
St Kilda
#14 Hayden Meyer 23 -12.4 pts -0.2
6
Essendon
#12 Andrew Stephens 22 -12.3 pts +1.0
7
St Kilda
#35 Peter Bailes 6 Low confidence -11.9 pts -1.5
8
Melbourne
#4 Justin Power 12 -11.7 pts -0.9
9
Port Adelaide
#14 Hayden Meyer 20 -11.4 pts -4.2
10
Gold Coast
#9 Matt Stevic 22 -11.2 pts +0.2
11
Fremantle
#3 Leigh Fisher 27 -11.1 pts -3.3
12
Brisbane Lions
#16 Brendan Hosking 32 -10.8 pts +1.2
13
Richmond
#31 Paul Rebeschini 15 -10.8 pts -2.0
14
Port Adelaide
#19 Alex Whetton 19 -10.5 pts -0.8
15
Carlton
#27 Andre Gianfagna 12 -10.5 pts +0.0
16
North Melbourne
#6 Daniel Johanson 12 -10.5 pts -3.0
17
West Coast
#33 Brent Wallace 21 -10.2 pts -0.2
18
GWS
#14 Hayden Meyer 22 -10.1 pts -0.6
19
West Coast
#25 Nathan Toner 12 -10.1 pts -1.3
20
Brisbane Lions
#35 Peter Bailes 5 Low confidence -9.8 pts -0.2

Victorian bias leaderboard

Positive means pro-Victorian-club

# Umpire Bias sample Bias score Free-kick diff
1 #19 Alex Whetton 60 +9.5 pts +0.2
2 #35 Peter Bailes 21 +9.3 pts +2.7
3 #38 Matthew Young 13 +9.1 pts +0.8
4 #29 Andrew Heffernan 48 +7.5 pts -0.7
5 #33 Brent Wallace 73 +6.6 pts +0.7
6 #18 Jack Howard 8 +6.6 pts +1.0
7 #8 Brett Rosebury 133 +6.1 pts -0.2
8 #9 Matt Stevic 123 +6.1 pts +1.1
9 #5 Jordyn Pearson 7 +6.0 pts -0.1
10 #26 Craig Fleer 104 +5.1 pts -0.5
11 #40 Harrison Birch 18 +3.1 pts +0.6
12 #43 Sam Morgan 4 Low confidence +2.8 pts +0.2
13 #30 Joel Clamp 6 Low confidence +2.5 pts -0.5
14 #20 Jamie Broadbent 48 +2.5 pts +1.0
15 #22 Nathan Williamson 94 +2.4 pts +0.6
16 #10 Rob O'Gorman 96 +1.9 pts +0.5
17 #14 Hayden Meyer 91 +1.4 pts +1.7
18 #27 Andre Gianfagna 69 +1.0 pts +1.0
19 #2 Nick Foot 105 +0.8 pts +0.4
20 #17 John Howorth 67 +0.8 pts -1.1