AFL Insights
Brett Rosebury

Umpire profile

Brett Rosebury

No. 8 Heritage 384 Active Last officiated 16 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

43.2%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 111 · Baseline 28.6% · +14.7 pts

Victorian bias

+5.5 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 131 · Free-kick diff -0.1

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Hawthorn
42 +7.6 pts -1.0
2
Collingwood
55 +5.6 pts +0.8
3
Western Bulldogs
37 +5.0 pts +1.2
4
Port Adelaide
37 +3.8 pts -0.3
5
Gold Coast
26 +2.4 pts +0.8
6
Geelong
53 +2.2 pts +0.8
7
Richmond
43 +1.7 pts -1.3
8
St Kilda
18 +0.5 pts -0.7
9
Essendon
38 -0.9 pts -1.3
10
Carlton
42 -1.5 pts +0.9
11
Melbourne
32 -1.9 pts -1.4
12
Sydney
42 -2.6 pts -0.3
13
North Melbourne
24 -2.6 pts -0.0
14
Adelaide
33 -2.9 pts +2.3
15
West Coast
23 -4.0 pts +2.5
16
Brisbane Lions
27 -4.4 pts -0.9
17
GWS
33 -6.2 pts -0.4
18
Fremantle
39 -8.1 pts -1.4

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Richmond 12.8 80 def. Gold Coast 9.15 69 90

Round 6 · 19 Apr 2025 · Marvel Stadium

9.00 odds · 93% favourite · 11-pt win · 43.5-pt dog

St Kilda 11.6 72 def. by Essendon 15.17 107 85

Round 14 · 17 Jun 2022 · Marvel Stadium

4.00 odds · 79% favourite · 35-pt win · 24.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 7.12 54 def. by Geelong 20.18 138 81

Finals Week 1 · 5 Sep 2024 · Adelaide Oval

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 84-pt win · 16.5-pt dog

GWS 8.13 61 def. by Fremantle 13.17 95 79

Round 10 · 17 May 2025 · ENGIE Stadium

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 34-pt win · 19.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 20.10 130 def. Brisbane Lions 9.10 64 76

Round 20 · 26 Jul 2025 · Carrara

2.55 odds · 65% favourite · 66-pt win · 10.5-pt dog