Brownlow market

2026 Brownlow forecast

Modelled winner prices and vote ranges compared with the latest Sportsbet market.

Favourite Nick Daicos $1.01 Sportsbet

Best value Marcus Bontempelli Model $8.60 vs $67.00 SB

Players priced 5 Sportsbet market runners

Last updated Mon 14 Sep, 2:05 PM Latest market capture

Market board

Winner probabilities and projected votes

Sportsbet-priced players only

Rank

Player

Exp. votes

Win %

Nick Daicos Collingwood · 0 left

31.4

147

47.9%

$2.09

$1.01

LAY ▼

Round detail

Nick Daicos

31.4 current · 0.0 future · 10–90%: 18–45 votes

Best completed estimates

Round	Opponent	Result	Model	AFLCA	Vote chance	3-vote chance	Performance
Round 16	RichmondHome · MCG	W by 34	2.42	10	98.5%	71.9%	37 disp · 3 goals · 7 clr · 11 contested
Round 11	West CoastHome · MCG	W by 10	2.39	10	98.0%	70.1%	34 disp · 3 goals · 7 clr · 9 contested
Round 3	GWSHome · Marvel Stadium	W by 33	2.30	10	96.6%	64.6%	36 disp · 2 goals · 6 clr · 12 contested
Round 6	CarltonAway · MCG	W by 5	2.26	10	96.0%	63.3%	39 disp · 1 goal · 8 clr · 16 contested
Round 20	AdelaideAway · Adelaide Oval	W by 34	2.18	10	94.7%	58.6%	39 disp · 1 goal · 7 clr · 18 contested

Remaining fixtures

No remaining projected fixtures are available.

Marcus Bontempelli Western Bulldogs · 0 left

22.6

109

11.6%

$8.60

$67.00

BACK ▲

Round detail

Marcus Bontempelli

22.6 current · 0.0 future · 10–90%: 12–34 votes

Best completed estimates

Round	Opponent	Result	Model	AFLCA	Vote chance	3-vote chance	Performance
Round 1	GWSHome · Marvel Stadium	W by 81	2.09	10	93.1%	53.2%	33 disp · 3 goals · 6 clr · 14 contested
Round 18	West CoastHome · Marvel Stadium	W by 16	2.08	10	92.5%	53.8%	25 disp · 2 goals · 12 clr · 15 contested
Round 19	Gold CoastAway · Carrara	W by 9	2.07	10	91.4%	53.3%	23 disp · 3 goals · 5 clr · 14 contested
Round 15	St KildaAway · Marvel Stadium	W by 22	1.96	10	87.8%	49.6%	34 disp · 1 goal · 13 clr · 15 contested
Round 9	Port AdelaideAway · Adelaide Oval	W by 2	1.90	9	85.8%	47.5%	30 disp · 1 goal · 7 clr · 9 contested

Remaining fixtures

No remaining projected fixtures are available.

Bailey Smith Geelong · 0 left

20.4

8.0%

$12.56

$51.00

BACK ▲

Round detail

Bailey Smith

20.4 current · 0.0 future · 10–90%: 10–32 votes

Best completed estimates

Round	Opponent	Result	Model	AFLCA	Vote chance	3-vote chance	Performance
Round 24	RichmondHome · Kardinia Park	W by 57	2.20	10	94.8%	56.1%	40 disp · 3 goals · 4 clr · 9 contested
Round 9	CollingwoodHome · MCG	W by 54	2.09	10	91.1%	53.5%	40 disp · 0 goals · 6 clr · 14 contested
Round 22	EssendonHome · Kardinia Park	W by 67	2.04	8	90.2%	50.6%	38 disp · 0 goals · 8 clr · 15 contested
Round 3	AdelaideHome · Kardinia Park	W by 8	1.93	9	86.5%	46.4%	40 disp · 0 goals · 6 clr · 16 contested
Round 10	Brisbane LionsAway · Gabba	W by 41	1.77	7	86.5%	34.8%	34 disp · 2 goals · 7 clr · 12 contested

Remaining fixtures

No remaining projected fixtures are available.

Patrick Cripps Carlton · 0 left

17.6

4.4%

$22.73

$81.00

BACK ▲

Round detail

Patrick Cripps

17.6 current · 0.0 future · 10–90%: 7–29 votes

Best completed estimates

Round	Opponent	Result	Model	AFLCA	Vote chance	3-vote chance	Performance
Round 10	Western BulldogsHome · Marvel Stadium	W by 12	2.03	9	90.3%	50.4%	29 disp · 2 goals · 8 clr · 17 contested
Round 16	West CoastHome · Marvel Stadium	W by 53	1.89	9	86.3%	44.7%	31 disp · 1 goal · 9 clr · 16 contested
Round 20	Gold CoastHome · Marvel Stadium	W by 13	1.81	9	83.9%	42.5%	30 disp · 1 goal · 15 clr · 21 contested
Round 11	Port AdelaideAway · Adelaide Oval	W by 34	1.76	10	83.5%	39.4%	32 disp · 1 goal · 8 clr · 17 contested
Round 12	GeelongHome · MCG	W by 4	1.68	10	79.0%	38.9%	30 disp · 1 goal · 8 clr · 15 contested

Remaining fixtures

No remaining projected fixtures are available.

Will Ashcroft Brisbane Lions · 0 left

17.1

3.0%

$33.38

$101.00

BACK ▲

Round detail

Will Ashcroft

17.1 current · 0.0 future · 10–90%: 8–27 votes

Best completed estimates

Round	Opponent	Result	Model	AFLCA	Vote chance	3-vote chance	Performance
Round 14	RichmondAway · Blundstone Arena	W by 35	2.09	10	92.1%	52.1%	38 disp · 2 goals · 8 clr · 9 contested
Round 18	EssendonHome · Gabba	W by 90	2.06	10	93.4%	46.8%	33 disp · 3 goals · 8 clr · 12 contested
Round 4	CollingwoodHome · Gabba	W by 54	1.82	10	83.4%	42.4%	36 disp · 1 goal · 6 clr · 15 contested
Round 23	Gold CoastHome · Gabba	W by 42	1.82	10	83.6%	43.2%	31 disp · 1 goal · 4 clr · 9 contested
Round 20	Port AdelaideHome · Gabba	W by 59	1.58	10	78.3%	31.9%	30 disp · 2 goals · 5 clr · 8 contested

Remaining fixtures

No remaining projected fixtures are available.