Melbourne sit comfortably in the five at 15-7 and carry a healthy ratings edge over a Bulldogs outfit that has struggled to stay above water with a negative average margin all season. The Dees' recent form line is strong, running at an 18-point margin differential advantage, and they'll relish the MCG fortress factor against a Dogs side that has won just once from three trips there in the last five meetings. Western Bulldogs welcome back Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Dale, which adds some star power, but losing Tom Liberatore to managed rest and Nick Coffield as a fresh absence blunts the boost. Melbourne lose Jacob van Rooyen to suspension but bring in Xavier Lindsay, a cleaner swap that shouldn't disrupt their structure as much. With the ladder gap, the home ground pull, and the superior rating, the Dees look well placed to bank another win and lock down their top-five spot heading into the final round.

Fremantle sit atop the ladder at 19-3 with a dominant average margin of +30, and they carry that form into Marvel Stadium as deserved favourites despite the interstate trip. Carlton's nine likely outs, including the fresh losses of Will Hayward and Nick Haynes, leave the Blues badly undermanned against a Dockers outfit that only has one confirmed absence and welcomes back McVee, Banfield, and Murray. The strength ratings tell the story clearly, with Fremantle's +1.8 TFR comfortably ahead of Carlton's +0.7, and the Dockers' away momentum further tilts the ledger. Carlton have been a .500 side all year sitting 10th at 11-10-1, and asking them to match it with the competition's best while this understrength looks a bridge too far. Expect Freo to grind out a workmanlike win by a couple of goals and keep their minor premiership charge ticking over.

GWS get the nod at Manuka in what shapes as a wet and scrappy arm-wrestle, with 30mm of rain forecast to turn the contest into a genuine slog. The Giants welcome back Toby Greene, a massive in for a side that thrives on his contested edge, while the Suns are shuffling the deck with three managed players out and three coming in. Gold Coast's ten straight losses tell a grim story, and a trip to Canberra in the cold and wet is hardly the circuit-breaker they need. GWS hold a 4-1 record over the last five meetings, carry significantly better recent form with a plus-20 margin differential, and the conditions at Manuka should suit their brand. It's moderate confidence at best given the Giants have 13 likely outs of their own, but the Suns look like a side running on fumes.

Fremantle sit atop the ladder at 18-2 with a dominant average margin of +32, and their power and strength ratings comfortably clear Melbourne's, making them deserved favourites even on the road at the MCG. The Dockers welcome back Brennan Cox while only losing Alex Pearce to managed rest, keeping their squad largely intact, whereas the Demons are battling six likely outs and have had to reshuffle with Turner and Chandler coming in for the injured Howes and the omitted Cross. Melbourne's 13-7 record and modest +7 average margin tell the story of a solid but not elite side, and Freo have owned this head-to-head rivalry of late, winning four of the last five encounters. A light shower or two and the cooler conditions slightly favour the Dockers' style, and their recent form margin is significantly better than the home side's. Even conceding the travel factor to Melbourne, the gap in class and depth points to Fremantle grinding out a tight but deserved win.

Two cellar-dwellers slugging it out at the MCG, but West Coast get the lean here despite Richmond's strong head-to-head record at the ground. The Eagles carry a better strength rating and a less brutal average margin this season, sitting about 11 points per game closer to competitive than the Tigers. Richmond's fresh outs including Campbell Gray and Harry Armstrong add to an already stretched list of 10, and while West Coast have similar numbers missing, the return of Jack Graham adds some needed grunt. Form-wise, West Coast's recent results have been tighter, and in a contest between two sides deep in the bottom four, that slightly harder edge matters. This is a coin-flip on paper, but the numbers just favour the visitors by a kick.

Brisbane sit fourth on the ladder at 13-6 and carry a dominant 10-2 record against Carlton across their last 12 meetings, winning by an average of over 22 points. The Lions welcome back Keidean Coleman and Oscar Allen this week, bolstering their side while Carlton, stuck in 11th at 9-10, are battling eight likely outs and a season average margin of minus seven. The Blues do get Harry McKay back, but that alone won't bridge the gap against a side whose power and strength ratings comfortably eclipse theirs. Brisbane's form margins tell the story of a team operating on a different level, and with Carlton's list stretched thin, the Lions look primed to win this one by around four goals.