AFL Insights

Tips

2026 Round 1 Next →
Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 5.43/8 tips (Hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Greater Western Sydney over Western Bulldogs

$3.30 · model 46% vs market 29%

Highest confidence

Gold Coast over West Coast

88% confidence · ~73 pts

Closest calls

3 coin tosses
WBD v GWS · 54% SYD v BRL · 51%

Round 1  ·  Thu 12 Mar, 7:30 PM AEDT

Carlton v Richmond

MCG

Tip

No stored pre-game tip

Final CAR 75 RIC 71

Completed game archived without a pre-game recommendation.

Flat-track bully: CAR

Round 1  ·  Fri 13 Mar, 7:40 PM AEDT

Essendon v Hawthorn

MCG

Tip

79%
Hawthorn

High confidence ~16 pts

Form

Hawthorn big edge Recent margin form is running 42.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Hawthorn big edge Hawthorn +11.1 pts · ESS -7.1 · HAW +4.0
Flat-track bully: HAW

Round 1  ·  Sat 14 Mar, 1:15 PM AEDT

Western Bulldogs v GWS

Marvel Stadium

Tip

54%
Western Bulldogs

Coin toss confidence ~15 pts Coin toss

Injury

Western Bulldogs big edge Outs currently sit 3-9 across the two squads.

Rub of the green

Western Bulldogs big edge Western Bulldogs +4.7 pts · WBD +5.6 · GWS +0.9
Coin toss Flat-track bully: WBD 💀 Bogey: GWS

Round 1  ·  Sat 14 Mar, 4:15 PM AEDT

Geelong v Fremantle

Kardinia Park

Tip

58%
Geelong

Medium confidence ~1 pts

Venue

Geelong big edge true home ground · fortress edge

Rub of the green

Geelong solid edge Geelong +2.9 pts · GEE +0.9 · FRE -2.0

Round 1  ·  Sat 14 Mar, 7:10 PM AEDT

Sydney v Brisbane Lions

SCG

Tip

51%
Sydney

Coin toss confidence ~2 pts Coin toss

Form

Brisbane Lions solid edge Recent margin form is running 8.8 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Sydney solid edge interstate travel · rest differential
Coin toss

Round 1  ·  Sat 14 Mar, 7:35 PM AEDT

Collingwood v Adelaide

MCG

Tip

55%
Collingwood

Coin toss confidence ~12 pts

Form

Collingwood solid edge Recent margin form is running 13.8 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Collingwood solid edge interstate travel · rest differential
💀 Bogey: ADE

Round 1  ·  Sun 15 Mar, 1:10 PM AEDT

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Marvel Stadium

Tip

60%
Port Adelaide

Medium confidence ~52 pts

Form

North Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 29.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Port Adelaide big edge Port Adelaide +5.2 pts · NTH -1.3 · PORT +3.8

Round 1  ·  Sun 15 Mar, 3:15 PM AEDT

Melbourne v St Kilda

MCG

Tip

51%
Melbourne

Coin toss confidence ~17 pts Coin toss

Form

Melbourne solid edge Recent margin form is running 13.0 pts better.

Venue

Melbourne solid edge true home ground · fortress edge
Coin toss

Round 1  ·  Sun 15 Mar, 5:10 PM AEST

Gold Coast v West Coast

Carrara

Tip

88%
Gold Coast

High confidence ~73 pts

Form

Gold Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 88.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Gold Coast big edge Gold Coast +8.8 pts · GCS +7.5 · WCE -1.3