2026 season

Melbourne

11-6 MCG
Ladder 6th Current position
Power +2.8 5th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: +0.7
Injuries Minor 2.6 pts
Confidence High High tipping confidence
Next opponent
NTH
Marvel Stadium · Sat 18 Jul, 4:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Melbourne profile is tip-friendly

Melbourne are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (50%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (78%).

Avg next-5 win chance 60%
Stable Slightly favourable Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 10.4 Slightly favourable · 60% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle
A Favourable
NTH Ladder 13th · R19 · Marvel 76% win · +20 pts
True form +15.7 advantage
H Line ball
GEE Ladder 9th · R20 · MCG 52% win
True form +7.8 advantage
A Favourable
GCS Ladder 14th · R21 · Carrara 74% win
True form +22.9 advantage Interstate trip
H Line ball
FRE Ladder 1st · R22 · MCG 45% win
True form -4.2 deficit
A Line ball
PORT Ladder 15th · R23 · Adel Oval 53% win
True form +21.7 advantage Interstate trip

Projected 3.0 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Hot
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +23.4
H W
RIC +46 · R18 Clinical
A W
HAW +35 · R17 Overperformed
A L
ADE -17 · R15 Result
H W
ESS +45 · R14 Overperformed
A W
COL +8 · R13 Result

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 92% 6 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Jack Viney TBC
Brody Mihocek Season
Xavier Lindsay 2-3 weeks
Jai Culley Season

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +2.8
Lower League avg Stronger
5th power rank
Ladder rank 6th
True form 12.2
Cool Par Strong
6th
Record 11-6
TFR momentum +0.7
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +8.1
Injury load 2.6 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 92%
Free-kick ladder 9th +0.2
Close games 2-1 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

+35 Opp 1st R17 UTAS Stadium

+51.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

-45 Opp 17th R5 Adelaide Oval

-72.5 pts vs line

Key insights

Tipping storylines

Melbourne
Inaccuracy

Melbourne have lost more games than any club despite winning the scoring-shot count — and it's almost entirely a post-2017 problem

Since 2006 Melbourne have lost 41 games in which they had MORE scoring shots than their opponent, against just 28 wins in which they had fewer — a net of -13, the most lopsided 'wastefulness' figure of any AFL club. Nearly all of that deficit has accumulated from 2017 onward: 2006-2016 the Dees were net positive (13 such losses vs 16 such wins), but from 2017-2025 they piled up shot-count-winning losses well beyond their shot-count-losing wins. So far in 2026, under the new coaching regime, it sits at 2 and 2. Their raw goal accuracy (52.7%) is only mid-pack, so this is a conversion-in-tight-games story, not simply bad kicking.

Sample: 463 Melbourne matches, 2006-2026

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.4
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.0
Upset win % 56% 9 games
Win % vs top 8 50% 8 games
Win % vs bottom 10 78% 9 games
Close game win % 67% 3 games
Home win % 88% 8 games
Away win % 44% 9 games
Interstate win % 17% 6 games
Favourite win % 75% 8 games
Underdog win % 56% 9 games
Fast start rate 41% Led at Q1 in 7 of 17 games
Comeback rate 43% 7 games
Lead held at siren 90% 10 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Melbourne · After R1 beat St Kilda 120-107 (+13) · Ladder 7th Melbourne · After R2 lost to Fremantle 70-118 (-48) · Ladder 11th Melbourne · After R3 beat Carlton 100-77 (+23) · Ladder 8th Melbourne · After R4 beat Gold Coast 109-89 (+20) · Ladder 7th Melbourne · After R5 lost to Essendon 68-113 (-45) · Ladder 9th Melbourne · After R6 beat Brisbane Lions 104-102 (+2) · Ladder 8th Melbourne · After R7 beat Richmond 126-72 (+54) · Ladder 4th Melbourne · After R8 lost to Sydney 114-131 (-17) · Ladder 7th Melbourne · After R9 beat West Coast 99-67 (+32) · Ladder 7th Melbourne · After R10 beat Hawthorn 120-81 (+39) · Ladder 5th Melbourne · After R11 lost to Western Bulldogs 90-93 (-3) · Ladder 6th Melbourne · After R12 lost to GWS 70-119 (-49) · Ladder 6th Melbourne · After R13 beat Collingwood 83-75 (+8) · Ladder 5th Melbourne · After R14 beat Essendon 95-50 (+45) · Ladder 4th Melbourne · After R15 lost to Adelaide 62-79 (-17) · Ladder 6th Melbourne · After R17 beat Hawthorn 125-90 (+35) · Ladder 6th Melbourne · After R18 beat Richmond 111-65 (+46) · Ladder 6th Melbourne 6th R1 R5 R9 R13 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Max Gawn Ruck · 6th league
109.5
Kysaiah Pickett Key fwd · 32nd league
97.7
Jack Steele Mid · 43rd league
94.1
Tom Sparrow Mid
91.4
Jake Bowey Mid
90.7
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs RIC, ESS, COL 9 games 100% +27.8 +19.7
Marvel Stadium vs WBD, WCE 2 games · low sample 50% +14.5 +6.4
Adelaide Oval vs ADE, ESS 2 games · low sample 0% -31.0 -39.1
One-off venues
UTAS Stadium vs HAW 1 game · low sample 100% +35.0 +26.9
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -17.0 -25.1
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -48.0 -56.1
Traeger Park vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -49.0 -57.1
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Jacob van Rooyen 35 · 2.1 per game
Accuracy Bayley Fritsch 71.0% · 1.5 goals per game · 22 goals, 9 behinds from 31 shots
Goal Assists Kade Chandler 15 · 0.9 per game
Marks inside 50 Jacob van Rooyen 39 · 2.3 per game
Marks Jake Lever 119 · 7.4 per game
One-Percenters Jake Lever 94 · 5.9 per game
Disposals Jack Steele 407 · 23.9 per game
Clearances Max Gawn 108 · 6.4 per game
Contested Possessions Max Gawn 229 · 13.5 per game
Tackles Jack Steele 109 · 6.4 per game
Clangers Kysaiah Pickett 87 · 5.1 per game
Free Kicks Against Kysaiah Pickett 22 · 1.3 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 9th Avg diff +0.2

Favourite umpires

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +11.3 pts

7 matches · FK diff -2.1

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +8.0 pts

37 matches · FK diff -0.6

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +6.4 pts

32 matches · FK diff -0.1

Least favourite umpires

Justin Power
Justin Power -12.2 pts

11 matches · FK diff -1.4

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry -10.2 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.6

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -6.4 pts

36 matches · FK diff -0.4

Show all 37 umpire rows
Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +11.3 pts

7 matches · FK diff -2.1

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +8.0 pts

37 matches · FK diff -0.6

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +6.4 pts

32 matches · FK diff -0.1

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +6.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.8

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +5.3 pts

12 matches · FK diff +0.8

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +4.8 pts

11 matches · FK diff +3.2

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis +4.6 pts

8 matches · FK diff -0.4

John Howorth
John Howorth +4.5 pts

12 matches · FK diff -2.0

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +4.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff -1.1

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +3.9 pts

12 matches · FK diff +3.3

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch +3.8 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.0

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +3.6 pts

31 matches · FK diff -0.7

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +2.2 pts

31 matches · FK diff +0.4

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger +1.9 pts

11 matches · FK diff +2.5

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +1.9 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.8

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +1.8 pts

41 matches · FK diff +0.8

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic +0.7 pts

41 matches · FK diff +1.1

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +0.2 pts

26 matches · FK diff -0.3

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +0.1 pts

23 matches · FK diff -1.4

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -0.3 pts

28 matches · FK diff +0.5

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -0.4 pts

15 matches · FK diff +2.3

Nicholas McGinness

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +5.0

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -0.6 pts

26 matches · FK diff -0.3

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -1.4 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -1.4 pts

14 matches · FK diff +0.4

Nathan Williamson

39 matches · FK diff -0.3

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -1.9 pts

32 matches · FK diff -1.4

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -1.9 pts

12 matches · FK diff +1.5

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -2.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +1.7

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -2.8 pts

23 matches · FK diff -1.6

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -3.1 pts

10 matches · FK diff +0.9

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent -4.3 pts

14 matches · FK diff -0.4

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -5.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.1

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -6.0 pts

21 matches · FK diff +0.1

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -6.4 pts

36 matches · FK diff -0.4

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry -10.2 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.6

Justin Power
Justin Power -12.2 pts

11 matches · FK diff -1.4

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
5th projected finish 14.5 wins 11W after 17 played
93% Wildcard round
Top 10
69% Home final
Top 6
38% Double chance
Top 4
8% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Collingwood

4-12 -12.0 avg margin · 16 games · Usable sample

Melbourne have gone 4-12 against Collingwood across the last 10 seasons.