2026 Melbourne club intelligence

2026 season

Melbourne

15-8 MCG

Ladder 7th Current position

Power +1.3 7th in league

True form Falling TFR momentum: -1.4

Injuries — —

Confidence Low Low tipping confidence

Next opponent TBA Fixture not available yet

Tipping insight

Use caution with Melbourne

Melbourne are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (40%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (79%).

Avg next-5 win chance Pending

Falling Win chances awaiting model Injuries: not modelled

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Pending

Upcoming recommendations are awaiting recompute.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend

Form heat Hot

Last 5 record 3-2

Margin Avg margin +9.8

H L

CAR -19 · F1 Underperformed

H L

WBD -21 · R24 Underperformed

A W

PORT +76 · R23 Overperformed

H W

FRE +4 · R22 Overperformed

A W

GCS +9 · R21 Result

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Availability is not available for this club yet.

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +1.3

Lower League avg Stronger

7th power rank

Ladder rank 7th

True form 12.9

Cool Par Strong

6th

Record 15-8

TFR momentum -1.4

Declining Stable Rising

Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)

Avg margin +8.8

Injury load — Lower is healthier

Best side available Not modelled

Free-kick ladder 3rd +1.4

Close games 4-1 5 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Hawthorn

+35 Opp 1st R17 UTAS Stadium

+51.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Essendon

-45 Opp 16th R5 Adelaide Oval

-72.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.1

Remaining difficulty Fixture ranks pending Future fixture

Upset win % 55% 11 games

Win % vs top 8 40% 10 games

Win % vs bottom 10 79% 14 games

Close game win % 80% 5 games

Home win % 67% 12 games

Away win % 58% 12 games

Interstate win % 38% 8 games

Favourite win % 69% 13 games

Underdog win % 55% 11 games

Fast start rate 46% Led at Q1 in 11 of 24 games

Comeback rate 50% 12 games

Lead held at siren 92% 13 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

Player power

Top 5 players

Max Gawn Ruck · 6th league

111

Kysaiah Pickett Key fwd · 35th league

96.4

Tom Sparrow Mid · 50th league

92.7

Jack Steele Mid

91.1

Jake Bowey Mid

Venue performance Ground split

MCG vs CAR, WBD, FRE 13 games 77% +14.9 +7.3

Marvel Stadium vs NTH, WBD, WCE 3 games 67% +15.0 +7.4

Adelaide Oval vs PORT, ADE, ESS 3 games 33% +4.7 -3.0

One-off venues

UTAS Stadium vs HAW 1 game · low sample 100% +35.0 +27.4

Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +9.0 +1.4

SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -17.0 -24.6

Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -48.0 -55.6

Traeger Park vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -49.0 -56.6

Stat leaders Club leaders

Goals Jacob van Rooyen 42 · 1.9 per game

Accuracy Harvey Langford 69.7% · 1.0 goals per game · 23 goals, 10 behinds from 33 shots

Goal Assists Kade Chandler 23 · 1.0 per game

Marks inside 50 Jacob van Rooyen 51 · 2.3 per game

Marks Jake Lever 147 · 6.7 per game

One-Percenters Jake Lever 126 · 5.7 per game

Disposals Jack Steele 564 · 23.5 per game

Clearances Max Gawn 158 · 6.6 per game

Contested Possessions Max Gawn 313 · 13.0 per game

Tackles Tom Sparrow 152 · 6.3 per game

Clangers Kysaiah Pickett 120 · 5.0 per game

Free Kicks Against Max Gawn 31 · 1.3 per game

Umpire profile Rub of the green

FK rank 3rd Avg diff +1.4

Favourite umpires

Paul Rebeschini +11.3 pts

7 matches · FK diff -2.1

Cameron Jones +9.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +1.0

Brendan Hosking +7.5 pts

38 matches · FK diff -0.9

Least favourite umpires

Justin Power -11.7 pts

12 matches · FK diff -0.9

Jordan Fry -9.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.8

Jamie Broadbent -6.2 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.3

Show all 37 umpire rows

Paul Rebeschini +11.3 pts

7 matches · FK diff -2.1

Cameron Jones +9.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +1.0

Brendan Hosking +7.5 pts

38 matches · FK diff -0.9

Tom Bryce +7.0 pts

8 matches · FK diff +0.5

Nick Foot +5.4 pts

33 matches · FK diff -0.0

Cameron Dore +5.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff +1.0

Andrew Adair +4.8 pts

11 matches · FK diff +3.2

Nick Jankovskis +4.6 pts

9 matches · FK diff -1.2

John Howorth +4.5 pts

12 matches · FK diff -2.0

Harrison Birch +3.8 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.0

Nathan Toner +3.6 pts

13 matches · FK diff +3.4

Jacob Mollison +2.7 pts

32 matches · FK diff -0.6

Hayden Meyer +2.1 pts

33 matches · FK diff +0.9

Martin Rodger +1.9 pts

11 matches · FK diff +2.5

Nick Brown +1.9 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.8

Andrew Stephens +1.1 pts

44 matches · FK diff +0.5

Leigh Fisher +0.6 pts

27 matches · FK diff +0.1

Craig Fleer +0.3 pts

28 matches · FK diff -0.2

Matt Stevic +0.3 pts

43 matches · FK diff +0.9

Brent Wallace +0.1 pts

23 matches · FK diff -1.4

Curtis Deboy -0.1 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.2

Peter Bailes -0.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.3

Andrew Heffernan -0.4 pts

15 matches · FK diff +2.3

Nicholas McGinness -0.4 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +5.0

Andre Gianfagna -1.4 pts

14 matches · FK diff +0.4

Nathan Williamson -1.5 pts

39 matches · FK diff -0.3

Eleni Tee -1.9 pts

12 matches · FK diff +1.5

Matthew Young -2.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +1.7

Brett Rosebury -2.7 pts

33 matches · FK diff -1.3

Mathew Nicholls -2.8 pts

23 matches · FK diff -1.6

Daniel Johanson -3.1 pts

10 matches · FK diff +0.9

Alex Whetton -5.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.1

Rob O'Gorman -6.0 pts

21 matches · FK diff +0.1

Simon Meredith -6.2 pts

38 matches · FK diff +0.1

Jamie Broadbent -6.2 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.3

Jordan Fry -9.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.8

Justin Power -11.7 pts

12 matches · FK diff -0.9

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals locked

7th projected finish 15.0 wins 15W after 24 played

100% Wildcard round
Top 10

0% Home final
Top 6

0% Double chance
Top 4

0% Top 2
Top 2

Round 24 of 24 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Collingwood

4-12 -12.0 avg margin · 16 games · Usable sample

Melbourne have gone 4-12 against Collingwood across the last 10 seasons.