AFL Insights

2026 season

Melbourne

7-3 MCG
Ladder 5th Current position
Power +2.4 5th in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +1.6
Injuries Moderate 5.1 pts
Confidence High High tipping confidence
Next opponent
WBD
Marvel Stadium · Sun 24 May, 3:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Melbourne profile is tip-friendly

Melbourne hold up vs top 8 sides (60%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (80%).

Avg next-5 win chance 62%
Rising Slightly favourable Injuries: Moderate

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 11.8 Slightly favourable · 62% avg win prob Toughest Adelaide
A Favourable
WBD Ladder 10th · R11 · Marvel 63% win · +2 pts
True form +11.1 advantage Opp major injury load
H Favourable
GWS Ladder 13th · R12 · Traeger Park 73% win
True form +17.6 advantage
A Line ball
COL Ladder 11th · R13 · MCG 46% win
True form +9.8 advantage
H Favourable
ESS Ladder 17th · R14 · MCG 80% win
True form +28.5 advantage
A Line ball
ADE Ladder 8th · R15 · Adel Oval 46% win
True form +4.0 advantage Interstate trip

Projected 3.1 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Hot
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +22.0
H W
HAW +39 · R10 Overperformed
H W
WCE +32 · R9 Clinical
A L
SYD -17 · R8 Overperformed
A W
RIC +54 · R7 Overperformed
H W
BRL +2 · R6 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Moderate 83% 10 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Christian Salem 2-3 weeks
Jack Viney TBC
Xavier Lindsay 2-4 weeks
Brody Mihocek 2-3 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +2.4
Lower League avg Stronger
5th power rank
Ladder rank 5th
True form 9.6
Cool Par Strong
4th
Record 7-3
TFR momentum +1.6
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +7.3
Injury load 5.1 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 83%
Free-kick ladder 4th +1.7
Close games 1-0 1 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Worst loss

L v Essendon
-45 Opp 17th R5 Adelaide Oval

-72.5 pts vs line

Key insights

Tipping storylines

Travel quirk
Melbourne
100 pp state split

Melbourne are a different side once they stay local

They are 7-0 in the same state and 0-3 interstate.

The fixture keeps them in the version of themselves that has shown up more often.

0-3 interstate 7-0 same-state
Bellwether
Western Bulldogs
vs
Melbourne
+66 pp win-rate swing

Tim English has been a barometer for Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs are 19-10 in 29 games with him since 2025, but 0-4 in 4 without him.

He is in this week's availability frame (test), so that split matters more than usual.

with: 19-10 without: 0-4 90 rating

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.2
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.6
Upset win % 67% 6 games
Win % vs top 8 60% 5 games
Win % vs bottom 10 80% 5 games
Close game win % 100% 1 game · low sample
Home win % 100% 5 games
Away win % 40% 5 games
Interstate win % 0% 3 games
Favourite win % 75% 4 games
Underdog win % 67% 6 games
Fast start rate 30% Led at Q1 in 3 of 10 games
Comeback rate 50% 4 games
Lead held at siren 100% 6 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Melbourne · After R1 beat St Kilda 120-107 (+13) · Ladder 7th Melbourne · After R2 lost to Fremantle 70-118 (-48) · Ladder 11th Melbourne · After R3 beat Carlton 100-77 (+23) · Ladder 8th Melbourne · After R4 beat Gold Coast 109-89 (+20) · Ladder 7th Melbourne · After R5 lost to Essendon 68-113 (-45) · Ladder 9th Melbourne · After R6 beat Brisbane Lions 104-102 (+2) · Ladder 8th Melbourne · After R7 beat Richmond 126-72 (+54) · Ladder 4th Melbourne · After R8 lost to Sydney 114-131 (-17) · Ladder 7th Melbourne · After R9 beat West Coast 99-67 (+32) · Ladder 7th Melbourne · After R10 beat Hawthorn 120-81 (+39) · Ladder 5th Melbourne 5th R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Max Gawn Ruck · 12th league
108
Jack Steele Mid · 30th league
99.1
Kysaiah Pickett Key fwd · 34th league
98.6
Jake Bowey Mid · 46th league
94.5
Tom Sparrow Mid
88.5
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs HAW, RIC, BRL 6 games 100% +25.2 +17.9
One-off venues
Marvel Stadium vs WCE 1 game · low sample 100% +32.0 +24.7
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -17.0 -24.3
Adelaide Oval vs ESS 1 game · low sample 0% -45.0 -52.3
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -48.0 -55.3
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Jacob van Rooyen 19 · 1.9 per game
Accuracy Paddy Cross 100.0% · 1.0 goals per game · 4 goals, 0 behinds from 4 shots
Goal Assists Kysaiah Pickett 10 · 1.0 per game
Marks inside 50 Jacob van Rooyen 20 · 2.0 per game
Marks Jake Lever 83 · 8.3 per game
One-Percenters Jake Lever 47 · 4.7 per game
Disposals Jack Steele 245 · 24.5 per game
Clearances Max Gawn 65 · 6.5 per game
Contested Possessions Max Gawn 146 · 14.6 per game
Tackles Jack Steele 64 · 6.4 per game
Clangers Kysaiah Pickett 49 · 4.9 per game
Free Kicks Against Kysaiah Pickett 12 · 1.2 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
5th projected finish 14.1 wins 7W after 10 played
79% Wildcard round
Top 10
55% Home final
Top 6
36% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Collingwood

3-12 -13.3 avg margin · 15 games · Usable sample

Melbourne have gone 3-12 against Collingwood across the last 10 seasons.