AFL Insights
Cameron Jones

Umpire profile

Cameron Jones

No. 7 Heritage 459 Active Last officiated 23 Aug 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

29.5%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 61 · Baseline 28.3% · +1.2 pts

Victorian bias

-10.3 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 13 · Free-kick diff -4.6

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Melbourne
7 +9.0 pts +1.0
2
North Melbourne
11 +9.0 pts -2.0
3
Fremantle
6 +8.8 pts +6.0
4
Adelaide
5 +8.3 pts -1.4
5
Carlton
4 +5.2 pts +1.0
6
Sydney
10 +4.6 pts +0.8
7
West Coast
11 +1.9 pts +0.9
8
Hawthorn
2 +1.7 pts +4.0
9
Port Adelaide
8 -0.8 pts +0.1
10
Collingwood
2 -1.5 pts -3.5
11
Essendon
8 -2.2 pts -0.4
12
Richmond
9 -4.0 pts -3.4
13
GWS
9 -4.6 pts -1.3
14
Brisbane Lions
6 -5.1 pts +3.8
15
Gold Coast
8 -5.7 pts +0.0
16
St Kilda
12 -7.5 pts -0.2
17
Geelong
2 -8.1 pts -5.0
18
Western Bulldogs
6 -9.6 pts -0.5

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Western Bulldogs 12.13 85 def. by West Coast 14.8 92 96

Round 23 · 20 Aug 2023 · Marvel Stadium

17.00 odds · 98% favourite · 7-pt win · 67.5-pt dog

Geelong 9.10 64 def. by Fremantle 10.11 71 91

Round 20 · 29 Jul 2023 · Kardinia Park

10.50 odds · 94% favourite · 7-pt win · 48.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 9.9 63 def. by Melbourne 18.9 117 81

Round 23 · 17 Aug 2024 · Carrara

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 54-pt win · 15.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 20.12 132 def. Gold Coast 14.13 97 80

Round 24 · 26 Aug 2023 · Blundstone Arena

3.50 odds · 76% favourite · 35-pt win · 20.5-pt dog

Brisbane Lions 13.18 96 def. by GWS 17.5 107 73

Round 14 · 14 Jun 2025 · Gabba

4.80 odds · 83% favourite · 11-pt win · 27.5-pt dog