AFL Insights
Simon Meredith

Umpire profile

Simon Meredith

No. 21 Heritage 398 Active Last officiated 9 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

35.6%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 118 · Baseline 28.6% · +7.0 pts

Victorian bias

+0.3 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 152 · Free-kick diff +0.5

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Brisbane Lions
43 +11.0 pts +0.3
2
St Kilda
22 +7.1 pts -2.0
3
Geelong
59 +6.9 pts +0.2
4
GWS
40 +6.7 pts -2.2
5
Gold Coast
28 +3.3 pts -0.8
6
Richmond
37 +2.5 pts -2.2
7
Hawthorn
42 +2.0 pts -1.0
8
Western Bulldogs
43 +1.9 pts +0.8
9
Carlton
38 -0.2 pts +2.2
10
North Melbourne
30 -0.4 pts +1.5
11
Adelaide
44 -0.5 pts +2.7
12
West Coast
32 -2.4 pts +0.3
13
Collingwood
55 -3.4 pts +1.5
14
Fremantle
37 -4.4 pts -0.7
15
Melbourne
36 -6.4 pts -0.4
16
Sydney
50 -6.6 pts -0.9
17
Essendon
34 -7.2 pts +1.2
18
Port Adelaide
46 -8.4 pts -1.6

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Melbourne 7.14 56 def. by Fremantle 14.10 94 87

Round 11 · 28 May 2022 · MCG

4.50 odds · 82% favourite · 38-pt win · 27.5-pt dog

Geelong 6.15 51 def. by Brisbane Lions 14.8 92 81

Round 15 · 20 Jun 2025 · Kardinia Park

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 41-pt win · 18.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 7.12 54 def. by Geelong 20.18 138 81

Finals Week 1 · 5 Sep 2024 · Adelaide Oval

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 84-pt win · 16.5-pt dog

St Kilda 14.10 94 def. Fremantle 5.3 33 78

Round 8 · 2 May 2025 · Marvel Stadium

2.68 odds · 67% favourite · 61-pt win · 10.5-pt dog

Geelong 11.9 75 def. by Brisbane Lions 18.14 122 75

Grand Final · 27 Sep 2025 · MCG

2.55 odds · 65% favourite · 47-pt win · 11.5-pt dog