AFL Insights

2026 season

North Melbourne

4-6 Marvel Stadium
Ladder 12th Current position
Power -1.6 14th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: -0.3
Injuries Minor 2.7 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
GCS
Marvel Stadium · Sat 23 May, 1:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

North Melbourne need matchup context

North Melbourne struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but are mixed against bottom 10 sides (67%).

Avg next-5 win chance 55%
Stable Slightly favourable Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 11.2 Slightly favourable · 55% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle
H Line ball
GCS Ladder 4th · R11 · Marvel 52% win · +40 pts
True form -14.3 deficit
H Tough
FRE Ladder 2nd · R13 · Hands Oval 28% win
True form -22.7 deficit Interstate trip
H Favourable
WCE Ladder 15th · R14 · Optus 66% win
True form +8.4 advantage Interstate trip
A Favourable
RIC Ladder 18th · R15 · MCG 63% win
True form +12.6 advantage
H Favourable
ESS Ladder 17th · R16 · Marvel 66% win
True form +12.2 advantage

Projected 2.7 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 1-4
Margin Avg margin -11.4
A L
ADE -68 · R10 Underperformed
H L
SYD -8 · R9 Overperformed
A L
GEE -49 · R8 Underperformed
A L
GWS -7 · R7 Near Miss
H W
RIC +75 · R6 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 94% 8 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Tom Powell Test
Zac Banch 4 weeks
Blake Thredgold TBC
Jackson Archer Season

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -1.6
Lower League avg Stronger
14th power rank
Ladder rank 12th
True form -6.7
Cool Par Strong
12th
Record 4-6
TFR momentum -0.3
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -3.2
Injury load 2.7 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 94%
Free-kick ladder 9th +0.0
Close games 2-2 4 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Worst loss

L v West Coast
-17 Opp 16th R2 Optus Stadium

-31.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.0
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.1
Upset win % 29% 7 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 4 games
Win % vs bottom 10 67% 6 games
Close game win % 50% 4 games
Home win % 60% 5 games
Away win % 20% 5 games
Interstate win % 0% 4 games
Favourite win % 67% 3 games
Underdog win % 29% 7 games
Fast start rate 70% Led at Q1 in 7 of 10 games
Comeback rate 33% 3 games
Lead held at siren 100% 3 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 North Melbourne · After R1 beat Port Adelaide 113-67 (+46) · Ladder 4th North Melbourne · After R2 lost to West Coast 94-111 (-17) · Ladder 6th North Melbourne · After R3 beat Essendon 81-69 (+12) · Ladder 6th North Melbourne · After R4 beat Carlton 96-86 (+10) · Ladder 5th North Melbourne · After R5 lost to Brisbane Lions 66-92 (-26) · Ladder 7th North Melbourne · After R6 beat Richmond 130-55 (+75) · Ladder 5th North Melbourne · After R7 lost to GWS 98-105 (-7) · Ladder 6th North Melbourne · After R8 lost to Geelong 86-135 (-49) · Ladder 10th North Melbourne · After R9 lost to Sydney 97-105 (-8) · Ladder 12th North Melbourne · After R10 lost to Adelaide 65-133 (-68) · Ladder 12th North Melbourne 12th R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Harry Sheezel Mid · 5th league
114.9
Tristan Xerri Ruck · 15th league
106.4
Luke Davies-Uniacke Mid · 35th league
96.8
Luke Parker Mid · 44th league
94.9
Caleb Daniel Mid
91.2
Venue performance Ground split
Marvel Stadium vs SYD, RIC, CAR 5 games 80% +27.0 +30.2
One-off venues
Manuka Oval vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -7.0 -3.8
Optus Stadium vs WCE 1 game · low sample 0% -17.0 -13.8
Barossa Park vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -26.0 -22.8
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -49.0 -45.8
Adelaide Oval vs ADE 1 game · low sample 0% -68.0 -64.8
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Nick Larkey 23 · 2.3 per game
Accuracy Charlie Spargo 100.0% · 0.7 goals per game · 4 goals, 0 behinds from 4 shots
Goal Assists Paul Curtis 13 · 1.3 per game
Marks inside 50 Paul Curtis 20 · 2.0 per game
Marks Luke Parker 65 · 6.5 per game
One-Percenters Charlie Comben 53 · 5.9 per game
Disposals Harry Sheezel 304 · 30.4 per game
Clearances Tristan Xerri 62 · 8.9 per game
Contested Possessions Tristan Xerri 123 · 17.6 per game
Tackles Luke Davies-Uniacke 47 · 4.7 per game
Clangers Harry Sheezel 39 · 3.9 per game
Free Kicks Against Luke Davies-Uniacke 18 · 1.8 per game

Season projection

Finals race

On the bubble
12th projected finish 10.0 wins 4W after 10 played
40% Wildcard round
Top 10
16% Home final
Top 6
9% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

0-14 -49.9 avg margin · 14 games · Usable sample

North Melbourne have gone 0-14 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.