AFL Insights

2026 season

North Melbourne

8-9 Marvel Stadium
Ladder 13th Current position
Power -0.4 11th in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +2.6
Injuries Minor 6.3 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
MEL
Marvel Stadium · Sat 18 Jul, 4:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

North Melbourne need matchup context

North Melbourne struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but are mixed against bottom 10 sides (67%).

Avg next-5 win chance 39%
Rising Tough slate Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Tough slate
Avg opp rank 7.0 Tough slate · 39% avg win prob Toughest Hawthorn
H Tough
MEL Ladder 6th · R19 · Marvel 24% win · -20 pts
True form -15.7 deficit Our own injury load
H Line ball
STK Ladder 10th · R20 · Marvel 50% win
A Tough
HAW Ladder 3rd · R21 · UTAS 25% win
True form -19.8 deficit Interstate trip
A Line ball
WBD Ladder 7th · R22 · Marvel 56% win
True form -6.3 deficit
H Tough
GEE Ladder 9th · R23 · Marvel 39% win
True form -7.9 deficit Opp moderate injury load

Projected 1.9 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend
Form heat Cold
Last 5 record 3-2
Margin Avg margin +3.0
A L
COL -4 · R18 Overperformed
A L
PORT -21 · R17 Result
H W
ESS +14 · R16 Result
A W
RIC +25 · R15 Clinical
H W
WCE +1 · R14 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 85% 7 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
George Wardlaw 3-4 weeks
Tom Blamires Injured
Tom Powell 1-2 weeks
Toby Pink Season

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -0.4
Lower League avg Stronger
11th power rank
Ladder rank 13th
True form -3.5
Cool Par Strong
12th
Record 8-9
TFR momentum +2.6
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -7.9
Injury load 6.3 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 85%
Free-kick ladder 8th +0.4
Close games 4-3 7 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Worst loss

L v West Coast
-17 Opp 12th R2 Optus Stadium

-31.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.6
Remaining difficulty Tough run home Avg opp rank 6.7
Upset win % 27% 11 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 5 games
Win % vs bottom 10 67% 12 games
Close game win % 57% 7 games
Home win % 67% 9 games
Away win % 25% 8 games
Interstate win % 14% 7 games
Favourite win % 83% 6 games
Underdog win % 27% 11 games
Fast start rate 47% Led at Q1 in 8 of 17 games
Comeback rate 29% 7 games
Lead held at siren 100% 6 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 North Melbourne · After R1 beat Port Adelaide 113-67 (+46) · Ladder 4th North Melbourne · After R2 lost to West Coast 94-111 (-17) · Ladder 6th North Melbourne · After R3 beat Essendon 81-69 (+12) · Ladder 6th North Melbourne · After R4 beat Carlton 96-86 (+10) · Ladder 5th North Melbourne · After R5 lost to Brisbane Lions 66-92 (-26) · Ladder 7th North Melbourne · After R6 beat Richmond 130-55 (+75) · Ladder 5th North Melbourne · After R7 lost to GWS 98-105 (-7) · Ladder 6th North Melbourne · After R8 lost to Geelong 86-135 (-49) · Ladder 10th North Melbourne · After R9 lost to Sydney 97-105 (-8) · Ladder 12th North Melbourne · After R10 lost to Adelaide 65-133 (-68) · Ladder 12th North Melbourne · After R11 beat Gold Coast 111-105 (+6) · Ladder 13th North Melbourne · After R13 lost to Fremantle 31-155 (-124) · Ladder 14th North Melbourne · After R14 beat West Coast 74-73 (+1) · Ladder 12th North Melbourne · After R15 beat Richmond 73-48 (+25) · Ladder 10th North Melbourne · After R16 beat Essendon 79-65 (+14) · Ladder 9th North Melbourne · After R17 lost to Port Adelaide 52-73 (-21) · Ladder 11th North Melbourne · After R18 lost to Collingwood 85-89 (-4) · Ladder 13th North Melbourne 13th R1 R5 R9 R14 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Harry Sheezel Mid · 1st league
121.7
Tristan Xerri Ruck · 23rd league
101.4
Luke Parker Mid · 34th league
97.2
Luke Davies-Uniacke Mid · 37th league
95.6
Caleb Daniel Mid
91.4
Venue performance Ground split
Marvel Stadium vs COL, ESS, GCS 8 games 75% +18.9 +26.8
Optus Stadium vs WCE, WCE 2 games · low sample 50% -8.0 -0.1
Adelaide Oval vs PORT, ADE 2 games · low sample 0% -44.5 -36.6
One-off venues
MCG vs RIC 1 game · low sample 100% +25.0 +32.9
Manuka Oval vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -7.0 +0.9
Barossa Park vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -26.0 -18.1
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -49.0 -41.1
Hands Oval vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -124.0 -116.1
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Nick Larkey 36 · 2.1 per game
Accuracy Cooper Trembath 77.4% · 1.4 goals per game · 24 goals, 7 behinds from 31 shots
Goal Assists Paul Curtis 14 · 1.0 per game
Marks inside 50 Nick Larkey 39 · 2.3 per game
Marks Luke Parker 120 · 7.1 per game
One-Percenters Charlie Comben 105 · 6.6 per game
Disposals Harry Sheezel 538 · 31.6 per game
Clearances Luke Davies-Uniacke 98 · 5.8 per game
Contested Possessions Tristan Xerri 191 · 14.7 per game
Tackles Harry Sheezel 84 · 4.9 per game
Clangers Luke Davies-Uniacke 68 · 4.0 per game
Free Kicks Against Luke Davies-Uniacke 32 · 1.9 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 8th Avg diff +0.4

Favourite umpires

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +9.0 pts

11 matches · FK diff -2.0

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +8.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.9

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis +7.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.2

Least favourite umpires

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -13.1 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.9

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -10.5 pts

12 matches · FK diff -3.0

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -7.7 pts

35 matches · FK diff +0.6

Show all 37 umpire rows
Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +9.0 pts

11 matches · FK diff -2.0

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +8.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.9

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis +7.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.2

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic +7.5 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.9

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +5.3 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.3

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +4.1 pts

18 matches · FK diff -0.3

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +2.0 pts

11 matches · FK diff -1.1

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger +0.5 pts

10 matches · FK diff -1.4

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +0.3 pts

18 matches · FK diff -2.5

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy +0.0 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.1

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -0.4 pts

30 matches · FK diff +1.5

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -1.2 pts

34 matches · FK diff +1.0

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -1.6 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.0

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -1.8 pts

13 matches · FK diff +2.5

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -1.9 pts

15 matches · FK diff +1.2

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry -2.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff -3.5

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -2.0 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.0

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -2.2 pts

23 matches · FK diff +0.9

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -2.2 pts

19 matches · FK diff +0.5

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent -2.4 pts

8 matches · FK diff +0.0

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -2.6 pts

24 matches · FK diff -0.5

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -2.6 pts

24 matches · FK diff -0.0

Justin Power
Justin Power -2.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.9

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -2.8 pts

25 matches · FK diff -1.8

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini -3.0 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.7

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -3.2 pts

16 matches · FK diff -1.7

Nick Brown
Nick Brown -3.6 pts

36 matches · FK diff +0.1

Nick Foot
Nick Foot -3.6 pts

20 matches · FK diff +2.8

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -3.7 pts

26 matches · FK diff +2.8

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -4.1 pts

10 matches · FK diff -1.0

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -4.7 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.8

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -5.3 pts

14 matches · FK diff -2.8

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch -5.9 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.5

John Howorth
John Howorth -7.7 pts

15 matches · FK diff -2.3

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -7.7 pts

35 matches · FK diff +0.6

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -10.5 pts

12 matches · FK diff -3.0

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -13.1 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.9

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
12th projected finish 10.6 wins 8W after 17 played
36% Wildcard round
Top 10
6% Home final
Top 6
3% Double chance
Top 4
2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

0-14 -49.9 avg margin · 14 games · Usable sample

North Melbourne have gone 0-14 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.