Harrison Birch

Umpire profile

Harrison Birch

No. 40 Heritage 461 Active Last officiated 11 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

22.9%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 48 · Baseline 28.6% · -5.7 pts

Victorian bias

+2.6 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 17 · Free-kick diff +0.4

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Fremantle
4 +5.8 pts +5.5
2
Essendon
3 +5.1 pts +2.7
3
West Coast
15 +5.1 pts +0.2
4
Carlton
5 +4.7 pts +3.0
5
Hawthorn
2 +4.7 pts +2.5
6
Melbourne
6 +3.8 pts -2.0
7
St Kilda
7 +3.1 pts +1.9
8
Geelong
3 +2.6 pts +2.3
9
GWS
5 +0.3 pts -5.8
10
Brisbane Lions
2 -0.3 pts -0.5
11
Adelaide
4 -0.8 pts -5.2
12
Port Adelaide
5 -1.6 pts -0.8
13
Richmond
10 -2.7 pts -3.1
14
Collingwood
1 -3.5 pts -1.0
15
Sydney
3 -5.6 pts +3.3
16
North Melbourne
10 -5.9 pts +1.5
17
Western Bulldogs
5 -6.9 pts +1.4
18
Gold Coast
6 -7.9 pts -1.0

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Western Bulldogs 12.13 85 def. by West Coast 14.8 92 96

Round 23 · 20 Aug 2023 · Marvel Stadium

17.00 odds · 98% favourite · 7-pt win · 67.5-pt dog

West Coast 16.9 105 def. Melbourne 10.10 70 90

Round 10 · 19 May 2024 · Optus Stadium

6.25 odds · 88% favourite · 35-pt win · 34.5-pt dog

Richmond 12.8 80 def. Gold Coast 9.15 69 90

Round 6 · 19 Apr 2025 · Marvel Stadium

9.00 odds · 93% favourite · 11-pt win · 43.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 9.9 63 def. by Melbourne 18.9 117 81

Round 23 · 17 Aug 2024 · Carrara

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 54-pt win · 15.5-pt dog

West Coast 13.10 88 def. GWS 10.11 71 78

Round 10 · 17 May 2026 · Optus Stadium

4.45 odds · 83% favourite · 17-pt win · 30.5-pt dog