Nick Brown

Umpire profile

Nick Brown

No. 13 Heritage 434 Active Last officiated 23 Aug 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

19.4%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 93 · Baseline 28.3% · -8.9 pts

Victorian bias

+0.2 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 62 · Free-kick diff +0.9

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Carlton
16 +10.8 pts -0.6
2
Hawthorn
15 +8.0 pts -1.4
3
Port Adelaide
14 +6.3 pts +0.7
4
Geelong
15 +4.3 pts -0.7
5
Adelaide
17 +2.5 pts +0.0
6
Melbourne
17 +1.9 pts +1.8
7
Western Bulldogs
26 +1.0 pts +4.1
8
Fremantle
21 +0.1 pts -0.5
9
GWS
27 +0.0 pts -2.9
10
Brisbane Lions
23 -0.4 pts -0.1
11
Essendon
22 -0.8 pts +1.3
12
Sydney
16 -1.1 pts +1.8
13
St Kilda
25 -1.9 pts -0.0
14
Gold Coast
29 -3.0 pts +0.9
15
Collingwood
11 -3.4 pts +3.0
16
North Melbourne
36 -3.6 pts +0.1
17
West Coast
26 -5.8 pts -1.8
18
Richmond
18 -6.5 pts -5.0

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

West Coast 16.9 105 def. Fremantle 10.8 68 90

Round 6 · 20 Apr 2024 · Optus Stadium

6.00 odds · 87% favourite · 37-pt win · 33.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 9.9 63 def. by Melbourne 18.9 117 81

Round 23 · 17 Aug 2024 · Carrara

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 54-pt win · 15.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 19.11 125 def. Melbourne 9.12 66 81

Round 2 · 23 Mar 2025 · Marvel Stadium

3.10 odds · 71% favourite · 59-pt win · 16.5-pt dog

GWS 8.13 61 def. by Fremantle 13.17 95 79

Round 10 · 17 May 2025 · ENGIE Stadium

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 34-pt win · 19.5-pt dog

GWS 26.10 166 def. Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 78

Round 11 · 24 May 2026 · ENGIE Stadium

2.71 odds · 68% favourite · 78-pt win · 14.5-pt dog