AFL Insights

2026 season

Adelaide

15-8 Adelaide Oval
Ladder 6th Current position
Power +0.4 10th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: +0.1
Injuries — —
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent TBA Fixture not available yet

Tipping insight

Adelaide need matchup context

Adelaide are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (42%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (85%).

Avg next-5 win chance Pending
Stable Win chances awaiting model Injuries: not modelled

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Pending

Upcoming recommendations are awaiting recompute.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend
Form heat Hot
Last 5 record 3-2
Margin Avg margin +2.0
A L
BRL -53 · SF Underperformed
H W
WBD +22 · F1 Result
H W
GWS +56 · R24 Overperformed
A L
FRE -24 · R23 Result
H W
RIC +9 · R22 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Availability is not available for this club yet.

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +0.4
Lower League avg Stronger
10th power rank
Ladder rank 6th
True form 12.3
Cool Par Strong
7th
Record 15-8
TFR momentum +0.1
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +13.9
Injury load — Lower is healthier
Best side available Not modelled
Free-kick ladder 2nd +1.5
Close games 4-4 8 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Sydney
+16 Opp 2nd R19 SCG

+30.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.1
Remaining difficulty Fixture ranks pending Future fixture
Upset win % 36% 11 games
Win % vs top 8 42% 12 games
Win % vs bottom 10 85% 13 games
Close game win % 50% 8 games
Home win % 77% 13 games
Away win % 50% 12 games
Interstate win % 55% 11 games
Favourite win % 86% 14 games
Underdog win % 36% 11 games
Fast start rate 52% Led at Q1 in 13 of 25 games
Comeback rate 27% 11 games
Lead held at siren 100% 14 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Adelaide · After R1 beat Collingwood 93-79 (+14) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R2 lost to Western Bulldogs 88-94 (-6) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R3 lost to Geelong 60-68 (-8) · Ladder 12th Adelaide · After R4 lost to Fremantle 76-78 (-2) · Ladder 13th Adelaide · After R5 beat Carlton 114-86 (+28) · Ladder 11th Adelaide · After R6 beat St Kilda 103-102 (+1) · Ladder 10th Adelaide · After R7 lost to Brisbane Lions 75-127 (-52) · Ladder 13th Adelaide · After R8 beat Port Adelaide 76-75 (+1) · Ladder 11th Adelaide · After R9 beat Richmond 98-61 (+37) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R10 beat North Melbourne 133-65 (+68) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R11 lost to Hawthorn 66-75 (-9) · Ladder 7th Adelaide · After R13 beat Geelong 75-74 (+1) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R14 beat Western Bulldogs 121-64 (+57) · Ladder 6th Adelaide · After R15 beat Melbourne 79-62 (+17) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R16 lost to Port Adelaide 71-97 (-26) · Ladder 6th Adelaide · After R17 beat West Coast 99-74 (+25) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R18 beat Gold Coast 128-49 (+79) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R19 beat Sydney 87-71 (+16) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R20 lost to Collingwood 74-108 (-34) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R21 beat Essendon 145-73 (+72) · Ladder 4th Adelaide · After R22 beat Richmond 63-54 (+9) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R23 lost to Fremantle 88-112 (-24) · Ladder 7th Adelaide · After R24 beat GWS 157-101 (+56) · Ladder 6th Adelaide 6th R1 R7 R13 R18 R24

Player power

Top 5 players

Jordan Dawson Key fwd · 5th league
115.3
Izak Rankine Key fwd · 25th league
100.8
Wayne Milera Mid · 42nd league
94.7
Sam Berry Mid · 49th league
92.7
Rory Laird Mid
89.1
Venue performance Ground split
Adelaide Oval vs WBD, GWS, RIC 14 games 71% +15.3 +3.7
Marvel Stadium vs ESS, WBD 2 games · low sample 100% +64.5 +52.9
MCG vs RIC, COL 2 games · low sample 100% +25.5 +13.9
Optus Stadium vs FRE, WCE 2 games · low sample 50% +0.5 -11.1
Gabba vs BRL, BRL 2 games · low sample 0% -52.5 -64.1
One-off venues
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 100% +16.0 +4.4
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -8.0 -19.6
UTAS Stadium vs HAW 1 game · low sample 0% -9.0 -20.6
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Josh Rachele 42 · 1.7 per game
Accuracy Darcy Fogarty 73.9% · 2.1 goals per game · 34 goals, 12 behinds from 46 shots
Goal Assists Ben Keays 30 · 1.2 per game
Marks inside 50 Riley Thilthorpe 56 · 2.5 per game
Marks Josh Worrell 133 · 5.5 per game
One-Percenters James Borlase 163 · 8.6 per game
Disposals Jordan Dawson 584 · 26.5 per game
Clearances Sam Berry 132 · 5.5 per game
Contested Possessions Sam Berry 276 · 11.5 per game
Tackles Sam Berry 167 · 7.0 per game
Clangers Jordan Dawson 97 · 4.4 per game
Free Kicks Against Lachlan McAndrew 41 · 1.7 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 2nd Avg diff +1.5

Favourite umpires

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +13.4 pts

25 matches · FK diff +1.8

John Howorth
John Howorth +11.6 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.9

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +10.8 pts

20 matches · FK diff -2.2

Least favourite umpires

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -7.2 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.4

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -4.7 pts

35 matches · FK diff +2.4

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -2.7 pts

10 matches · FK diff +3.2

Show all 34 umpire rows
Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +13.4 pts

25 matches · FK diff +1.8

John Howorth
John Howorth +11.6 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.9

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +10.8 pts

20 matches · FK diff -2.2

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +10.3 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -3.6

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness +10.1 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.4

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +8.3 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.4

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +7.6 pts

20 matches · FK diff -1.0

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +7.0 pts

22 matches · FK diff +1.6

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +6.8 pts

13 matches · FK diff +3.0

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +5.6 pts

20 matches · FK diff -2.0

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +5.0 pts

24 matches · FK diff +0.8

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +4.9 pts

35 matches · FK diff +1.9

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +4.6 pts

28 matches · FK diff +1.1

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +4.4 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.7

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +4.2 pts

13 matches · FK diff -1.1

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +3.3 pts

8 matches · FK diff +0.9

Justin Power
Justin Power +2.9 pts

14 matches · FK diff +1.8

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +2.5 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.0

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +1.9 pts

15 matches · FK diff -0.2

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +1.8 pts

9 matches · FK diff +0.2

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +1.7 pts

23 matches · FK diff +1.2

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +1.4 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.8

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +0.9 pts

18 matches · FK diff +1.2

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy +0.9 pts

34 matches · FK diff +1.6

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +0.1 pts

47 matches · FK diff +2.4

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +0.0 pts

46 matches · FK diff +2.7

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -0.6 pts

28 matches · FK diff +1.5

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch -0.8 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff -5.2

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -0.8 pts

37 matches · FK diff +1.0

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -1.3 pts

15 matches · FK diff +3.4

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini -2.7 pts

9 matches · FK diff +0.2

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -2.7 pts

10 matches · FK diff +3.2

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -4.7 pts

35 matches · FK diff +2.4

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -7.2 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.4

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Home final locked
5th projected finish 16.0 wins 16W after 25 played
100% Wildcard round
Top 10
100% Home final
Top 6
0% Double chance
Top 4
0% Top 2
Top 2

Round 25 of 25 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Collingwood

2-12-1 -16.5 avg margin · 15 games · Usable sample

Adelaide have gone 2-12-1 against Collingwood across the last 10 seasons.