2026 Adelaide club intelligence

2026 season

Adelaide

11-6 Adelaide Oval

Ladder 5th Current position

Power +2.7 6th in league

True form Stable TFR momentum: +0.3

Injuries Minor 4 pts

Confidence High High tipping confidence

Next opponent

SYD

SCG · Fri 17 Jul, 7:40 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Adelaide profile is tip-friendly

Adelaide are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (43%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (80%).

Avg next-5 win chance 63%

Stable Favourable run Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Favourable run

Avg opp rank 9.2 Favourable run · 63% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle

A Line ball

SYD Ladder 2nd · R19 · SCG 48% win · -12 pts

True form -1.6 deficit Interstate trip

H Favourable

COL Ladder 8th · R20 · Adel Oval 72% win

True form +11.0 advantage

A Favourable

ESS Ladder 18th · R21 · Marvel 81% win

True form +32.2 advantage Interstate trip

H Favourable

RIC Ladder 17th · R22 · Adel Oval 74% win

True form +28.8 advantage

A Tough

FRE Ladder 1st · R23 · Optus 39% win

True form -4.1 deficit Interstate trip

Projected 3.1 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up

Form heat Hot

Last 5 record 4-1

Margin Avg margin +30.4

H W

GCS +79 · R18 Overperformed

A W

WCE +25 · R17 Clinical

A L

PORT -26 · R16 Underperformed

H W

MEL +17 · R15 Result

A W

WBD +57 · R14 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Minor 91% 2 listed injuries

Clear Manageable Major

Rory Laird TBC

Mitch Hinge 2-3 weeks

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +2.7

Lower League avg Stronger

6th power rank

Ladder rank 5th

True form 12.3

Cool Par Strong

5th

Record 11-6

TFR momentum +0.3

Declining Stable Rising

Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)

Avg margin +13.2

Injury load 4 pts

Clear Manageable Major

Lower is healthier

Best side available 91%

Free-kick ladder 5th +1.1

Close games 3-4 7 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Melbourne

+17 Opp 5th R15 Adelaide Oval

-1.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Port Adelaide

-26 Opp 8th R16 Adelaide Oval

-49.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.2

Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 10.5

Upset win % 38% 8 games

Win % vs top 8 43% 7 games

Win % vs bottom 10 80% 10 games

Close game win % 43% 7 games

Home win % 78% 9 games

Away win % 50% 8 games

Interstate win % 57% 7 games

Favourite win % 89% 9 games

Underdog win % 38% 8 games

Fast start rate 47% Led at Q1 in 8 of 17 games

Comeback rate 33% 9 games

Lead held at siren 100% 10 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

Player power

Top 5 players

Jordan Dawson Key fwd · 4th league

117.5

Sam Berry Mid · 35th league

96.9

Wayne Milera Mid · 42nd league

94.3

Rory Laird Mid · 49th league

91.9

Lachlan McAndrew Ruck

89.9

Venue performance Ground split

Adelaide Oval vs GCS, PORT, MEL 10 games 70% +16.1 +2.9

MCG vs RIC, COL 2 games · low sample 100% +25.5 +12.3

One-off venues

Marvel Stadium vs WBD 1 game · low sample 100% +57.0 +43.8

Optus Stadium vs WCE 1 game · low sample 100% +25.0 +11.8

Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -8.0 -21.2

UTAS Stadium vs HAW 1 game · low sample 0% -9.0 -22.2

Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -52.0 -65.2

Stat leaders Club leaders

Goals Josh Rachele 30 · 1.8 per game

Accuracy Jordan Dawson 83.3% · 1.4 goals per game · 20 goals, 4 behinds from 24 shots

Goal Assists Ben Keays 22 · 1.3 per game

Marks inside 50 Riley Thilthorpe 32 · 2.3 per game

Marks Rory Laird 102 · 6.8 per game

One-Percenters James Borlase 101 · 8.4 per game

Disposals Sam Berry 387 · 22.8 per game

Clearances Sam Berry 92 · 5.4 per game

Contested Possessions Sam Berry 201 · 11.8 per game

Tackles Sam Berry 133 · 7.8 per game

Clangers Josh Rachele 68 · 4.0 per game

Free Kicks Against Lachlan McAndrew 29 · 1.7 per game

Umpire profile Rub of the green

FK rank 5th Avg diff +1.1

Favourite umpires

Leigh Fisher +13.4 pts

25 matches · FK diff +1.8

John Howorth +12.0 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.5

Nicholas McGinness +10.1 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.4

Least favourite umpires

Nathan Williamson -5.5 pts

29 matches · FK diff +1.1

Brett Rosebury -2.9 pts

33 matches · FK diff +2.3

Paul Rebeschini -2.7 pts

9 matches · FK diff +0.2

Show all 34 umpire rows

Leigh Fisher +13.4 pts

25 matches · FK diff +1.8

John Howorth +12.0 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.5

Nicholas McGinness +10.1 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.4

Alex Whetton +10.1 pts

19 matches · FK diff -2.1

Tom Bryce +8.6 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff -3.2

Cameron Jones +8.3 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.4

Nick Foot +7.6 pts

20 matches · FK diff -1.0

Jamie Broadbent +6.8 pts

13 matches · FK diff +3.0

Brent Wallace +6.2 pts

21 matches · FK diff +1.4

Jacob Mollison +5.2 pts

33 matches · FK diff +1.7

Rob O'Gorman +5.0 pts

24 matches · FK diff +0.8

Nathan Toner +4.8 pts

19 matches · FK diff -2.2

Daniel Johanson +4.4 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.7

Andrew Heffernan +4.2 pts

12 matches · FK diff -1.8

Andrew Stephens +3.8 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.7

Andrew Adair +3.3 pts

8 matches · FK diff +0.9

Hayden Meyer +2.9 pts

21 matches · FK diff +1.0

Justin Power +2.9 pts

14 matches · FK diff +1.8

Nick Brown +2.5 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.0

Curtis Deboy +2.1 pts

33 matches · FK diff +1.4

Cameron Dore +1.9 pts

15 matches · FK diff -0.2

Mathew Nicholls +1.4 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.8

Eleni Tee +0.9 pts

18 matches · FK diff +1.2

Brendan Hosking +0.8 pts

27 matches · FK diff +1.4

Martin Rodger +0.2 pts

8 matches · FK diff +3.1

Peter Bailes +0.1 pts

8 matches · FK diff +0.1

Craig Fleer -0.4 pts

46 matches · FK diff +2.4

Simon Meredith -0.5 pts

44 matches · FK diff +2.7

Harrison Birch -0.8 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff -5.2

Andre Gianfagna -1.3 pts

15 matches · FK diff +3.4

Matt Stevic -1.6 pts

35 matches · FK diff +0.8

Paul Rebeschini -2.7 pts

9 matches · FK diff +0.2

Brett Rosebury -2.9 pts

33 matches · FK diff +2.3

Nathan Williamson -5.5 pts

29 matches · FK diff +1.1

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals

5th projected finish 14.6 wins 11W after 17 played

93% Wildcard round
Top 10

74% Home final
Top 6

41% Double chance
Top 4

10% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Melbourne

5-8 -15.8 avg margin · 13 games · Usable sample

Adelaide have gone 5-8 against Melbourne across the last 10 seasons.