AFL Insights

2026 season

Adelaide

6-4 Adelaide Oval
Ladder 8th Current position
Power +2.4 4th in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +1.7
Injuries Minor 0.6 pts
Confidence High High tipping confidence
Next opponent
HAW
UTAS Stadium · Thu 21 May, 7:30 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Adelaide profile is tip-friendly

Adelaide struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (86%).

Avg next-5 win chance 48%
Rising Evenly-contested slate Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Evenly-contested slate
Avg opp rank 7.6 Evenly-contested slate · 48% avg win prob Toughest Geelong
A Tough
HAW Ladder 6th · R11 · UTAS 36% win · -17 pts
Interstate trip
H Tough
GEE Ladder 3rd · R13 · Adel Oval 34% win
True form -8.5 deficit
A Line ball
WBD Ladder 10th · R14 · Marvel 58% win
True form +7.1 advantage Interstate trip
H Line ball
MEL Ladder 5th · R15 · Adel Oval 52% win
True form -4.0 deficit
A Line ball
PORT Ladder 14th · R16 · Adel Oval 60% win
True form +14.8 advantage

Projected 2.4 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Red hot
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +11.0
H W
NTH +68 · R10 Overperformed
A W
RIC +37 · R9 Clinical
H W
PORT +1 · R8 Got Away With One
A L
BRL -52 · R7 Underperformed
H W
STK +1 · R6 Got Away With One

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 93% 3 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Mitch Hinge 1 week
Mark Keane 2-3 weeks
Taylor Walker Test

As of 12 May 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +2.4
Lower League avg Stronger
4th power rank
Ladder rank 8th
True form 5.7
Cool Par Strong
6th
Record 6-4
TFR momentum +1.7
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +8.1
Injury load 0.6 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 93%
Free-kick ladder 13th -0.8
Close games 2-3 5 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.1
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.5
Upset win % 20% 5 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 3 games
Win % vs bottom 10 86% 7 games
Close game win % 40% 5 games
Home win % 67% 6 games
Away win % 50% 4 games
Interstate win % 50% 4 games
Favourite win % 100% 5 games
Underdog win % 20% 5 games
Fast start rate 20% Led at Q1 in 2 of 10 games
Comeback rate 33% 6 games
Lead held at siren 100% 6 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Adelaide · After R1 beat Collingwood 93-79 (+14) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R2 lost to Western Bulldogs 88-94 (-6) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R3 lost to Geelong 60-68 (-8) · Ladder 12th Adelaide · After R4 lost to Fremantle 76-78 (-2) · Ladder 13th Adelaide · After R5 beat Carlton 114-86 (+28) · Ladder 11th Adelaide · After R6 beat St Kilda 103-102 (+1) · Ladder 10th Adelaide · After R7 lost to Brisbane Lions 75-127 (-52) · Ladder 13th Adelaide · After R8 beat Port Adelaide 76-75 (+1) · Ladder 11th Adelaide · After R9 beat Richmond 98-61 (+37) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R10 beat North Melbourne 133-65 (+68) · Ladder 8th Adelaide 8th R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Jordan Dawson Key fwd · 10th league
109.1
Wayne Milera Mid · 47th league
94.1
Sam Berry Mid · 48th league
93.5
Izak Rankine Key fwd
88.6
Josh Worrell Mid
88.5
Venue performance Ground split
Adelaide Oval vs NTH, PORT, STK 6 games 67% +15.0 +6.9
MCG vs RIC, COL 2 games · low sample 100% +25.5 +17.4
One-off venues
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -8.0 -16.1
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -52.0 -60.1
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Josh Rachele 17 · 1.7 per game
Accuracy Jordan Dawson 100.0% · 1.1 goals per game · 8 goals, 0 behinds from 8 shots
Goal Assists Jake Soligo 10 · 1.2 per game
Marks inside 50 Riley Thilthorpe 22 · 2.4 per game
Marks Josh Worrell 63 · 6.3 per game
One-Percenters Nick Murray 58 · 7.2 per game
Disposals Wayne Milera 257 · 25.7 per game
Clearances Sam Berry 48 · 4.8 per game
Contested Possessions Sam Berry 124 · 12.4 per game
Tackles Sam Berry 75 · 7.5 per game
Clangers Josh Rachele 42 · 4.2 per game
Free Kicks Against Lachlan McAndrew 17 · 1.7 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
6th projected finish 13.3 wins 6W after 10 played
75% Wildcard round
Top 10
45% Home final
Top 6
27% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Melbourne

4-8 -18.6 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Adelaide have gone 4-8 against Melbourne across the last 10 seasons.