2026 season

Biggest upsets

The biggest surprise results of the season, ranked by pre-game expectation and how far the result beat the market.

10 results · 2 massive 8 big · Standout: Essendon over Melbourne
1
Massive upset 85

Essendon (25% pre-game chance) toppled Melbourne, flipping a 28-pt line deficit through winning the contested ball.

Round 5 ·2026-04-11 ·Adelaide Oval
4.00 odds · 25% pre-game chance · 28-pt dog · Won by 45 pts
  • Dominated contested possession (142 vs 115) and controlled the tempo
  • Archie Roberts controlled tempo with 42 disposals
  • Edged the stoppage count (40 clearances vs Melbourne's 32)
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Archie Roberts orchestrated the contest with 42 disposals, anchoring a midfield unit that controlled the stoppage battle with 40 clearances to Melbourne's 32, turning that edge into a decisive contested possession advantage of 142 to 115. Melbourne simply could not wrestle back possession or dictate tempo, leaving their forwards starved of supply as Essendon stretched the margin to 45 points.
2
Massive upset 83

Given just a 25% pre-game chance, Port Adelaide overturned a 26-pt line deficit against Geelong through controlling stoppages, winning by 30.

Round 7 ·2026-04-25 ·Adelaide Oval
4.00 odds · 25% pre-game chance · 26-pt dog · Won by 30 pts
  • Controlled the game from the stoppages (46 vs 28)
  • Ruck advantage was decisive: 53 hitouts to 23
  • Jason Horne-Francis owned the stoppages (12 clearances, 34 disposals)
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Port Adelaide strangled the contest at its source, with Jason Horne-Francis amassing 12 clearances and 34 disposals behind a ruck unit that delivered 53 hitouts to Geelong's 23, turning the stoppage battle into a 46-to-28 rout that fed constant first-use territory. Geelong, starved of possession from the centre and around the ground, could never establish the ball movement needed to stay in touch.
3
Big upset 77

West Coast (23% pre-game chance) toppled GWS, flipping a 30-pt line deficit through ruck dominance.

Round 10 ·2026-05-17 ·Optus Stadium
4.30 odds · 23% pre-game chance · 30-pt dog · Won by 17 pts
  • Bailey Williams dominated the ruck (41 hitouts) and fed their midfield
  • GWS missing Nick Madden and Harry Rowston, two major contributors
  • Controlled the taps (50 hitouts to 35) and fed their midfield all day
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Bailey Williams controlled the ruck with 41 hitouts, giving West Coast's midfield first use of the ball at stoppages and building sustained territorial advantage throughout the contest. With GWS already weakened by the absence of Nick Madden and Harry Rowston, the Giants lacked the firepower to claw back the clearance deficit or stem the flow of entries against them.

Given just a 27% pre-game chance, Port Adelaide overturned a 24-pt line deficit against Adelaide through controlling stoppages, winning by 26.

Round 16 ·2026-06-27 ·Adelaide Oval
3.70 odds · 27% pre-game chance · 24-pt dog · Won by 26 pts
  • First use was theirs all day — 42 clearances to 22
  • Zak Butters owned the stoppages (13 clearances, 37 disposals)
  • Adelaide missing Wayne Milera and Luke Pedlar, two major contributors
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Port Adelaide strangled the contest at source, piling up 42 clearances to Adelaide's 22 as Zak Butters orchestrated the midfield with 13 clearances and 37 disposals, turning first use into sustained territory and scoring opportunities. Without Wayne Milera and Luke Pedlar to match that stoppage firepower, Adelaide lacked the midfield depth to stem the flow or generate enough ball movement of their own to stay in the fight.
5
Big upset 76

GWS (26% pre-game chance) toppled Fremantle, flipping a 26-pt line deficit through controlling stoppages.

Round 17 ·2026-07-04 ·Manuka Oval
3.90 odds · 26% pre-game chance · 26-pt dog · Won by 21 pts
  • Won the clearance battle convincingly (42 to 28)
  • Led by 22 at the last break — held off the favourite's charge to win by 21
  • Dominated contested possession (140 vs 128) and controlled the tempo
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GWS controlled the game through the middle, winning the clearance count 42 to 28 and outworking Fremantle in contested possession, which allowed them to dictate tempo and build a 22-point buffer by three-quarter time. Fremantle's late charge lacked the sustained midfield grunt needed to close the gap, and the Giants held firm to win by 21.

Given just a 41% pre-game chance, GWS overturned a 12-pt line deficit against Brisbane Lions through pressure and tackling, winning by 78.

Round 11 ·2026-05-24 ·ENGIE Stadium
2.45 odds · 41% pre-game chance · 12-pt dog · Won by 78 pts
  • Won the pressure game with 87 tackles to 50
  • Made every chance count (26.10) while Brisbane Lions spurned theirs (13.10)
  • Kicked 86 to 3 in the third term when it mattered most
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GWS strangled Brisbane's ball movement with a ferocious 87-tackle effort that forced turnovers and created a lopsided supply of quality chances, converting at 26.10 to Brisbane's wasteful 13.10. The Giants blew the game open with an 86-to-3 third quarter that buried the Lions, who simply could not generate enough clean possessions under that sustained physical pressure to mount any response.

Melbourne (36% pre-game chance) edged Hawthorn, flipping a 16-pt line deficit through controlling stoppages.

Round 10 ·2026-05-16 ·MCG
2.80 odds · 36% pre-game chance · 16-pt dog · Won by 39 pts
  • Limited Jai Newcombe to 3 clearances, well below a season average of 7.8 clearances
  • Hawthorn missing Will Day and Jack Gunston, two major contributors
  • Kicked 40 to 21 in the final term when it mattered most
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Melbourne strangled Hawthorn's engine room by holding Jai Newcombe to just 3 clearances, cutting off the Hawks' primary source of drive from stoppages and tilting territory in their favour. With Will Day and Jack Gunston unavailable, Hawthorn lacked the firepower and midfield depth to respond, and Melbourne pulled away emphatically in the final term, kicking 40 to 21 to turn a competitive contest into a comfortable 39-point win.
8
Big upset 74

Given just a 34% pre-game chance, Melbourne overturned a 16-pt line deficit against Hawthorn through controlling stoppages, winning by 35.

Round 17 ·2026-07-04 ·UTAS Stadium
2.90 odds · 34% pre-game chance · 16-pt dog · Won by 35 pts
  • Controlled the game from the stoppages (46 vs 31)
  • Won the pressure game with 64 tackles to 44
  • Wire-to-wire control: in front at every quarter break from start to finish
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Melbourne's midfield strangled Hawthorn at the source, converting a massive 46-to-31 stoppage advantage into constant forward entries, while a ferocious tackling effort of 64 to 44 ensured the Hawks could never move the ball cleanly enough to mount a sustained response. Leading at every change, Melbourne's wire-to-wire control meant Hawthorn were forced to chase the game on foreign terms, unable to generate the momentum needed to claw back a deficit that only grew as the pressure compounded.
9
Big upset 73

Carlton (28% pre-game chance) toppled GWS, flipping a 22-pt line deficit through controlling stoppages.

Round 15 ·2026-06-20 ·ENGIE Stadium
3.60 odds · 28% pre-game chance · 22-pt dog · Won by 23 pts
  • Quiet day from Clayton Oliver: 5 clearances, down on a season average of 7.9 clearances
  • George Hewett controlled tempo with 30 disposals
  • GWS missing Nick Madden and Jake Riccardi, two major contributors
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George Hewett's 30-disposal performance strangled GWS through the middle of the ground, giving Carlton the territorial edge they needed to build a scoreboard buffer, while Clayton Oliver's quiet five-clearance outing left the Giants unable to generate enough ball movement from stoppages. Without Nick Madden and Jake Riccardi to provide forward targets, GWS had no avenue to convert what little possession they won into meaningful scoring opportunities.
10
Big upset 73

Given just a 39% pre-game chance, Geelong overturned a 14-pt line deficit against Brisbane Lions through pressure and tackling, winning by 41.

Round 10 ·2026-05-14 ·Gabba
2.57 odds · 39% pre-game chance · 14-pt dog · Won by 41 pts
  • Made the contest messier for Brisbane Lions with 64 tackles to 45
  • Bailey Smith was everywhere with 34 disposals and 11 tackles
  • Wire-to-wire control: in front at every quarter break from start to finish
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Geelong strangled the contest through sheer physical pressure, racking up 64 tackles to Brisbane's 45, with Bailey Smith at the centre of everything as his 34 disposals and 11 tackles set the tone for a suffocating midfield effort that denied the Lions any clean ball going forward. With the Cats establishing control from the first break and never relinquishing it, Brisbane could find no avenue back into the game, their attacking structure starved of the quality entries needed to close the gap on a hostile Gabba surface turned against them.