2026 season

Biggest upsets

The biggest surprise results of the season, ranked by pre-game expectation and how far the result beat the market.

10 results · 2 massive 7 big 1 notable · Standout: Essendon over Melbourne
1
Massive upset 85

Essendon (25% pre-game chance) toppled Melbourne, flipping a 28-pt line deficit through winning the contested ball.

Round 5 ·2026-04-11 ·Adelaide Oval
4.00 odds · 25% pre-game chance · 28-pt dog · Won by 45 pts
  • Dominated contested possession (142 vs 115) and controlled the tempo
  • Archie Roberts controlled tempo with 42 disposals
  • Edged the stoppage count (40 clearances vs Melbourne's 32)
Show full match analysis Hide analysis
Archie Roberts orchestrated the contest with 42 disposals, anchoring a midfield unit that controlled the stoppage battle with 40 clearances to Melbourne's 32, turning that edge into a decisive contested possession advantage of 142 to 115. Melbourne simply could not wrestle back possession or dictate tempo, leaving their forwards starved of supply as Essendon stretched the margin to 45 points.
2
Massive upset 83

Given just a 25% pre-game chance, Port Adelaide overturned a 26-pt line deficit against Geelong through controlling stoppages, winning by 30.

Round 7 ·2026-04-25 ·Adelaide Oval
4.00 odds · 25% pre-game chance · 26-pt dog · Won by 30 pts
  • Controlled the game from the stoppages (46 vs 28)
  • Ruck advantage was decisive: 53 hitouts to 23
  • Jason Horne-Francis owned the stoppages (12 clearances, 34 disposals)
Show full match analysis Hide analysis
Port Adelaide strangled the contest at its source, with Jason Horne-Francis amassing 12 clearances and 34 disposals behind a ruck unit that delivered 53 hitouts to Geelong's 23, turning the stoppage battle into a 46-to-28 rout that fed constant first-use territory. Geelong, starved of possession from the centre and around the ground, could never establish the ball movement needed to stay in touch.
3
Big upset 77

West Coast (23% pre-game chance) toppled GWS, flipping a 30-pt line deficit through ruck dominance.

Round 10 ·2026-05-17 ·Optus Stadium
4.30 odds · 23% pre-game chance · 30-pt dog · Won by 17 pts
  • Bailey Williams dominated the ruck (41 hitouts) and fed their midfield
  • GWS missing Nick Madden and Harry Rowston, two major contributors
  • Controlled the taps (50 hitouts to 35) and fed their midfield all day
Show full match analysis Hide analysis

Given just a 36% pre-game chance, Melbourne overturned a 16-pt line deficit against Hawthorn through controlling stoppages, winning by 39.

Round 10 ·2026-05-16 ·MCG
2.80 odds · 36% pre-game chance · 16-pt dog · Won by 39 pts
  • Limited Jai Newcombe to 3 clearances, well below a season average of 7.4 clearances
  • Hawthorn missing Jack Gunston and Conor Nash, two major contributors
  • Kicked 40 to 21 in the final term when it mattered most
Show full match analysis Hide analysis

Geelong (39% pre-game chance) edged Brisbane Lions, flipping a 14-pt line deficit through pressure and tackling.

Round 10 ·2026-05-14 ·Gabba
2.57 odds · 39% pre-game chance · 14-pt dog · Won by 41 pts
  • Made the contest messier for Brisbane Lions with 64 tackles to 45
  • Bailey Smith was everywhere with 34 disposals and 11 tackles
  • Wire-to-wire control: in front at every quarter break from start to finish
Show full match analysis Hide analysis

Given just a 42% pre-game chance, North Melbourne overturned a 10-pt line deficit against Port Adelaide through goal accuracy, winning by 46.

Round 1 ·2026-03-15 ·Marvel Stadium
2.40 odds · 42% pre-game chance · 10-pt dog · Won by 46 pts
  • Clinical in front of goal — 17.11 while Port Adelaide wasted chances (9.13)
  • Controlled the game from the stoppages (40 vs 29)
  • Tougher at the contested ball — 132 to 112
Show full match analysis Hide analysis
North Melbourne seized control through the stoppages, winning the clearance count 40 to 29 and converting that midfield edge into territory and scoreboard pressure, finishing with a clinical 17.11. Port Adelaide's inability to match that contested intensity left them scrapping for possession on the back foot, and when they did manufacture chances, wayward kicking of 9.13 ensured they could never close the gap.

Melbourne (29% pre-game chance) toppled Gold Coast, flipping a 22-pt line deficit through controlling stoppages.

Round 4 ·2026-04-05 ·MCG
3.50 odds · 29% pre-game chance · 22-pt dog · Won by 20 pts
  • Controlled the game from the stoppages (39 vs 28)
  • Dominated contested possession (138 vs 116) and controlled the tempo
  • Gold Coast missing Christian Petracca and Bailey Humphrey, two major contributors
Show full match analysis Hide analysis
Melbourne's midfield strangled Gold Coast at the stoppages, winning the clearance count 39 to 28 and building a decisive edge in contested possession that allowed them to control territory and tempo for most of the afternoon. Without Christian Petracca and Bailey Humphrey, the Suns lacked the midfield firepower and forward presence needed to absorb that pressure and generate enough scoring of their own to stay in the contest.

Given just a 25% pre-game chance, Melbourne overturned a 28-pt line deficit against Brisbane Lions through pressure and tackling, winning by 2.

Round 6 ·2026-04-19 ·MCG
4.00 odds · 25% pre-game chance · 28-pt dog · Won by 2 pts
  • Won the pressure game with 50 tackles to 31
  • Sharp in front of goal (16.8) against Brisbane Lions's 15.12
  • Brisbane Lions missing Dayne Zorko and Darcy Gardiner, two major contributors
Show full match analysis Hide analysis

West Coast (24% pre-game chance) toppled Port Adelaide, flipping a 28-pt line deficit through controlling stoppages.

Round 3 ·2026-03-29 ·Adelaide Oval
4.10 odds · 24% pre-game chance · 28-pt dog · Won by 2 pts
  • First use was theirs all day — 42 clearances to 27
  • Led by 11 at the last break — held off the favourite's charge to win by 2
  • Port Adelaide missing Connor Rozee and Todd Marshall, two major contributors
Show full match analysis Hide analysis
10
Notable upset 61

Given just a 33% pre-game chance, Richmond overturned a 20-pt line deficit against West Coast through key absentees for the favourite, winning by 11.

Round 8 ·2026-05-02 ·Optus Stadium
3.05 odds · 33% pre-game chance · 20-pt dog · Won by 11 pts
  • West Coast missing Jack Graham and Deven Robertson, two major contributors
  • Got the better of the free-kick battle 23-16 while staying cleaner with 16 against
  • Silenced the home crowd at Optus Stadium and produced their best away-state performance
Show full match analysis Hide analysis
Richmond controlled discipline throughout, winning the free-kick count 23-16 while conceding just 16 frees against, which translated into cleaner ball movement and extra scoring opportunities that built a steady advantage on the road. West Coast, already weakened by the absence of Jack Graham and Deven Robertson from their engine room, lacked the midfield grunt to claw back territory or generate enough quality inside 50 entries to threaten once the Tigers settled into their structure at Optus Stadium.