AFL Insights
Paul Rebeschini

Umpire profile

Paul Rebeschini

No. 31 Heritage 447 Active Last officiated 20 Jun 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

18.9%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 74 · Baseline 28.6% · -9.7 pts

Victorian bias

-0.8 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 32 · Free-kick diff +0.4

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Melbourne
7 +11.3 pts -2.1
2
Hawthorn
13 +9.0 pts +0.2
3
Gold Coast
10 +4.8 pts +1.5
4
Fremantle
13 +4.0 pts +3.0
5
Carlton
9 +4.0 pts +0.2
6
Essendon
5 +3.4 pts +1.8
7
St Kilda
11 +3.0 pts +2.5
8
Sydney
10 +1.7 pts -3.2
9
Port Adelaide
16 +0.7 pts -0.5
10
Brisbane Lions
4 -0.4 pts +2.2
11
Western Bulldogs
5 -2.7 pts -0.6
12
Adelaide
9 -2.7 pts +0.2
13
West Coast
19 -2.7 pts -1.3
14
Geelong
8 -2.8 pts -1.8
15
North Melbourne
26 -3.0 pts +0.7
16
Collingwood
6 -5.7 pts -0.2
17
GWS
10 -6.3 pts +0.3
18
Richmond
15 -10.8 pts -2.0

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

North Melbourne 14.8 92 def. Richmond 11.22 88 88

Round 18 · 16 Jul 2022 · Marvel Stadium

10.00 odds · 93% favourite · 4-pt win · 46.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 7.14 56 def. by Hawthorn 19.6 120 84

Round 2 · 26 Mar 2022 · Adelaide Oval

3.85 odds · 78% favourite · 64-pt win · 22.5-pt dog

Fremantle 10.12 72 def. by North Melbourne 11.7 73 74

Round 2 · 25 Mar 2023 · Optus Stadium

6.50 odds · 88% favourite · 1-pt win · 34.5-pt dog

Sydney 13.8 86 def. by Fremantle 16.7 103 68

Round 9 · 13 May 2023 · SCG

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 17-pt win · 20.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 10.13 73 def. Geelong 7.12 54 66

Round 3 · 2 Apr 2023 · Carrara

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 19-pt win · 17.5-pt dog