Martin Rodger

Umpire profile

Martin Rodger

No. 37 Heritage 456 Active Last officiated 4 Sep 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

25.0%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 88 · Baseline 28.3% · -3.3 pts

Victorian bias

+0.2 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 36 · Free-kick diff +0.4

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Western Bulldogs
11 +10.7 pts +0.4
2
GWS
10 +6.3 pts -5.0
3
St Kilda
9 +4.2 pts -0.4
4
Sydney
7 +3.8 pts -3.9
5
Melbourne
11 +1.9 pts +2.5
6
North Melbourne
11 +1.9 pts -1.4
7
Brisbane Lions
9 +1.9 pts +2.6
8
Hawthorn
21 +1.6 pts +1.0
9
Geelong
14 -0.6 pts -1.9
10
Collingwood
10 -0.8 pts +1.6
11
West Coast
8 -1.0 pts +2.2
12
Gold Coast
7 -1.2 pts -0.1
13
Fremantle
11 -1.6 pts -1.4
14
Adelaide
10 -2.7 pts +3.2
15
Carlton
12 -4.7 pts +0.9
16
Essendon
11 -5.0 pts -0.5
17
Richmond
9 -7.2 pts -0.6
18
Port Adelaide
7 -9.4 pts -0.4

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Geelong 10.14 74 def. by GWS 12.9 81 86

Round 11 · 27 May 2023 · Kardinia Park

9.00 odds · 93% favourite · 7-pt win · 42.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 19.11 125 def. Melbourne 9.12 66 81

Round 2 · 23 Mar 2025 · Marvel Stadium

3.10 odds · 71% favourite · 59-pt win · 16.5-pt dog

Melbourne 18.12 120 def. Hawthorn 12.9 81 80

Round 10 · 16 May 2026 · MCG

3.12 odds · 73% favourite · 39-pt win · 20.5-pt dog

Hawthorn 15.8 98 def. Brisbane Lions 11.7 73 78

Round 13 · 10 Jun 2023 · MCG

4.00 odds · 79% favourite · 25-pt win · 24.5-pt dog

Western Bulldogs 9.13 67 def. by Essendon 15.6 96 74

Round 5 · 12 Apr 2024 · Marvel Stadium

3.35 odds · 74% favourite · 29-pt win · 19.5-pt dog