Andrew Heffernan

Umpire profile

Andrew Heffernan

No. 29 Heritage 445 Active Last officiated 11 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

27.8%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 97 · Baseline 28.6% · -0.7 pts

Victorian bias

+5.8 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 44 · Free-kick diff -0.8

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Geelong
13 +13.5 pts +0.7
2
Hawthorn
19 +5.5 pts -1.7
3
Adelaide
12 +4.2 pts -1.8
4
Fremantle
17 +3.6 pts +2.8
5
Richmond
12 +2.9 pts -1.1
6
Sydney
9 +1.3 pts -2.9
7
Brisbane Lions
9 +0.6 pts +1.9
8
St Kilda
12 -0.3 pts +0.3
9
Melbourne
15 -0.4 pts +2.3
10
Carlton
15 -1.2 pts -1.2
11
Collingwood
11 -1.6 pts +2.3
12
Western Bulldogs
11 -2.0 pts +2.5
13
West Coast
12 -2.2 pts -1.0
14
Port Adelaide
19 -3.0 pts +0.6
15
North Melbourne
16 -3.2 pts -1.7
16
GWS
10 -3.6 pts -3.7
17
Essendon
13 -4.7 pts -1.5
18
Gold Coast
17 -8.7 pts +1.8

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Port Adelaide 13.19 97 def. Adelaide 11.5 71 77

Round 16 · 27 Jun 2026 · Adelaide Oval

3.80 odds · 79% favourite · 26-pt win · 22.5-pt dog

Collingwood 10.14 74 def. by West Coast 14.3 87 72

Round 4 · 9 Apr 2022 · Marvel Stadium

4.25 odds · 81% favourite · 13-pt win · 25.5-pt dog

Western Bulldogs 8.11 59 def. by Hawthorn 12.9 81 71

Round 13 · 5 Jun 2025 · Marvel Stadium

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 22-pt win · 20.5-pt dog

West Coast 8.8 56 def. by Richmond 16.9 105 71

Round 19 · 19 Jul 2025 · Optus Stadium

2.30 odds · 61% favourite · 49-pt win · 6.5-pt dog

GWS 16.13 109 def. Fremantle 13.10 88 69

Round 17 · 4 Jul 2026 · Manuka Oval

3.27 odds · 75% favourite · 21-pt win · 19.5-pt dog