Andrew Heffernan

Umpire profile

Andrew Heffernan

No. 29 Heritage 445 Active Last officiated 5 Sep 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

28.2%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 103 · Baseline 28.3% · -0.1 pts

Victorian bias

+7.5 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 48 · Free-kick diff -0.7

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Geelong
14 +12.7 pts +0.6
2
Hawthorn
19 +5.5 pts -1.7
3
Adelaide
13 +4.2 pts -1.1
4
Fremantle
17 +3.6 pts +2.8
5
Sydney
10 +3.4 pts -1.9
6
Richmond
12 +2.9 pts -1.1
7
Carlton
16 +2.9 pts -1.0
8
Melbourne
15 -0.4 pts +2.3
9
Collingwood
12 -0.9 pts +2.5
10
Western Bulldogs
13 -1.3 pts +1.8
11
St Kilda
13 -2.2 pts +0.1
12
West Coast
13 -2.6 pts -1.3
13
North Melbourne
17 -3.0 pts -1.6
14
Port Adelaide
19 -3.0 pts +0.6
15
Essendon
13 -4.7 pts -1.5
16
Brisbane Lions
10 -4.9 pts +1.5
17
GWS
11 -5.5 pts -4.0
18
Gold Coast
19 -7.1 pts +1.5

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Carlton 24.10 154 def. Brisbane Lions 11.12 78 85

Round 21 · 1 Aug 2026 · Marvel Stadium

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 76-pt win · 24.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 13.19 97 def. Adelaide 11.5 71 77

Round 16 · 27 Jun 2026 · Adelaide Oval

3.80 odds · 79% favourite · 26-pt win · 22.5-pt dog

Collingwood 10.14 74 def. by West Coast 14.3 87 72

Round 4 · 9 Apr 2022 · Marvel Stadium

4.25 odds · 81% favourite · 13-pt win · 25.5-pt dog

Western Bulldogs 8.11 59 def. by Hawthorn 12.9 81 71

Round 13 · 5 Jun 2025 · Marvel Stadium

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 22-pt win · 20.5-pt dog

West Coast 8.8 56 def. by Richmond 16.9 105 71

Round 19 · 19 Jul 2025 · Optus Stadium

2.30 odds · 61% favourite · 49-pt win · 6.5-pt dog