AFL Insights

2026 season

Port Adelaide

3-7 Adelaide Oval
Ladder 14th Current position
Power -0.3 12th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: +0.2
Injuries Minor 2.1 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
CAR
Adelaide Oval · Sat 23 May, 7:05 PM ACST

Tipping insight

Port Adelaide need matchup context

Port Adelaide struggle vs top 8 sides (25%) but have not banked bottom 10 games (33%).

Avg next-5 win chance 48%
Stable Evenly-contested slate Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Evenly-contested slate
Avg opp rank 10.2 Evenly-contested slate · 48% avg win prob Toughest Sydney
H Line ball
CAR Ladder 16th · R11 · Adel Oval 59% win · +5 pts
True form +4.0 advantage
A Favourable
WCE Ladder 15th · R13 · Optus 66% win
True form +5.9 advantage Interstate trip
H Tough
SYD Ladder 1st · R14 · Adel Oval 43% win
True form -23.0 deficit
A Tough
COL Ladder 11th · R15 · MCG 33% win
True form -9.0 deficit Interstate trip
H Tough
ADE Ladder 8th · R16 · Adel Oval 40% win
True form -14.8 deficit

Projected 2.4 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 1-4
Margin Avg margin -0.2
A L
GCS -25 · R10 Result
H L
WBD -2 · R9 Near Miss
A L
ADE -1 · R8 Near Miss
H W
GEE +30 · R7 Overperformed
A L
HAW -3 · R6 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 88% 6 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Jack Lukosius 2-4 weeks
Miles Bergman TBC
Sam Powell-Pepper 4-6 weeks
Josh Lai TBC

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -0.3
Lower League avg Stronger
12th power rank
Ladder rank 14th
True form -9.2
Cool Par Strong
14th
Record 3-7
TFR momentum +0.2
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +4.2
Injury load 2.1 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 88%
Free-kick ladder 14th -0.9
Close games 0-4 4 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Geelong
+30 Opp 1st R7 Adelaide Oval

+56.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v West Coast
-2 Opp 16th R3 Adelaide Oval

-29.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.5
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.1
Upset win % 17% 6 games
Win % vs top 8 25% 4 games
Win % vs bottom 10 33% 6 games
Close game win % 0% 4 games
Home win % 40% 5 games
Away win % 20% 5 games
Interstate win % 25% 4 games
Favourite win % 50% 4 games
Underdog win % 17% 6 games
Fast start rate 50% Led at Q1 in 5 of 10 games
Comeback rate 0% 4 games
Lead held at siren 100% 3 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Port Adelaide · After R1 lost to North Melbourne 67-113 (-46) · Ladder 16th Port Adelaide · After R2 beat Essendon 133-70 (+63) · Ladder 7th Port Adelaide · After R3 lost to West Coast 90-92 (-2) · Ladder 11th Port Adelaide · After R4 beat Richmond 90-48 (+42) · Ladder 8th Port Adelaide · After R5 lost to St Kilda 67-81 (-14) · Ladder 10th Port Adelaide · After R6 lost to Hawthorn 86-89 (-3) · Ladder 12th Port Adelaide · After R7 beat Geelong 95-65 (+30) · Ladder 11th Port Adelaide · After R8 lost to Adelaide 75-76 (-1) · Ladder 13th Port Adelaide · After R9 lost to Western Bulldogs 72-74 (-2) · Ladder 14th Port Adelaide · After R10 lost to Gold Coast 73-98 (-25) · Ladder 14th Port Adelaide 14th R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Zak Butters Mid · 8th league
109.7
Jason Horne-Francis Key fwd
92.8
Kane Farrell Mid
89.1
Connor Rozee Mid
83
Willem Drew Mid
82.8
Venue performance Ground split
Adelaide Oval vs WBD, ADE, GEE 6 games 33% +12.3 +8.1
Marvel Stadium vs HAW, NTH 2 games · low sample 0% -24.5 -28.7
One-off venues
MCG vs RIC 1 game · low sample 100% +42.0 +37.8
TIO Stadium vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -25.0 -29.2
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Mitch Georgiades 26 · 2.6 per game
Accuracy Corey Durdin 66.7% · 1.6 goals per game · 16 goals, 8 behinds from 24 shots
Goal Assists Jason Horne-Francis 11 · 1.1 per game
Marks inside 50 Mitch Georgiades 42 · 4.2 per game
Marks Aliir Aliir 94 · 9.4 per game
One-Percenters Aliir Aliir 50 · 5.0 per game
Disposals Zak Butters 310 · 31.0 per game
Clearances Zak Butters 59 · 5.9 per game
Contested Possessions Zak Butters 124 · 12.4 per game
Tackles Willem Drew 60 · 6.0 per game
Clangers Jason Horne-Francis 45 · 4.5 per game
Free Kicks Against Jason Horne-Francis 19 · 1.9 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
13th projected finish 9.4 wins 3W after 10 played
36% Wildcard round
Top 10
14% Home final
Top 6
8% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

6-10 -17.5 avg margin · 16 games · Usable sample

Port Adelaide have gone 6-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.