AFL Insights

2026 season

Port Adelaide

6-11 Adelaide Oval
Ladder 15th Current position
Power +1.3 8th in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +2.6
Injuries Major 22.7 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
FRE
Adelaide Oval · Sat 18 Jul, 12:45 PM ACST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Port Adelaide

Port Adelaide struggle vs top 8 sides (17%) but are mixed against bottom 10 sides (45%).

Avg next-5 win chance 39%
Rising Tough slate Injuries: Major

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Tough slate
Avg opp rank 4.8 Tough slate · 39% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle
H Tough
FRE Ladder 1st · R19 · Adel Oval 12% win · -66 pts
True form -25.9 deficit Our own injury load
A Tough
BRL Ladder 4th · R20 · Gabba 40% win
True form -21.9 deficit Interstate trip
H Line ball
GWS Ladder 11th · R21 · Adel Oval 54% win
True form -7.7 deficit
A Tough
SYD Ladder 2nd · R22 · SCG 44% win
True form -23.3 deficit Interstate trip
H Line ball
MEL Ladder 6th · R23 · Adel Oval 46% win
True form -21.7 deficit

Projected 2.0 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend
Form heat Building
Last 5 record 2-3
Margin Avg margin +0.6
A L
STK -14 · R18 Result
H W
NTH +21 · R17 Result
H W
ADE +26 · R16 Overperformed
A L
COL -27 · R15 Underperformed
H L
SYD -3 · R14 Near Miss

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Major 61% 13 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Jason Horne-Francis Round 20
Kane Farrell Injured
Zak Butters TBC
Connor Rozee Season

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +1.3
Lower League avg Stronger
8th power rank
Ladder rank 15th
True form -9.4
Cool Par Strong
14th
Record 6-11
TFR momentum +2.6
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +1.0
Injury load 22.7 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 61%
Free-kick ladder 10th -0.3
Close games 1-5 6 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Adelaide
+26 Opp 6th R16 Adelaide Oval

+49.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v West Coast
-2 Opp 12th R3 Adelaide Oval

-29.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.2
Remaining difficulty Tough run home Avg opp rank 7.3
Upset win % 20% 10 games
Win % vs top 8 17% 6 games
Win % vs bottom 10 45% 11 games
Close game win % 17% 6 games
Home win % 44% 9 games
Away win % 25% 8 games
Interstate win % 29% 7 games
Favourite win % 57% 7 games
Underdog win % 20% 10 games
Fast start rate 47% Led at Q1 in 8 of 17 games
Comeback rate 0% 6 games
Lead held at siren 83% 6 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Port Adelaide · After R1 lost to North Melbourne 67-113 (-46) · Ladder 16th Port Adelaide · After R2 beat Essendon 133-70 (+63) · Ladder 7th Port Adelaide · After R3 lost to West Coast 90-92 (-2) · Ladder 11th Port Adelaide · After R4 beat Richmond 90-48 (+42) · Ladder 8th Port Adelaide · After R5 lost to St Kilda 67-81 (-14) · Ladder 10th Port Adelaide · After R6 lost to Hawthorn 86-89 (-3) · Ladder 12th Port Adelaide · After R7 beat Geelong 95-65 (+30) · Ladder 11th Port Adelaide · After R8 lost to Adelaide 75-76 (-1) · Ladder 13th Port Adelaide · After R9 lost to Western Bulldogs 72-74 (-2) · Ladder 14th Port Adelaide · After R10 lost to Gold Coast 73-98 (-25) · Ladder 14th Port Adelaide · After R11 lost to Carlton 58-92 (-34) · Ladder 14th Port Adelaide · After R13 beat West Coast 77-71 (+6) · Ladder 15th Port Adelaide · After R14 lost to Sydney 90-93 (-3) · Ladder 15th Port Adelaide · After R15 lost to Collingwood 51-78 (-27) · Ladder 15th Port Adelaide · After R16 beat Adelaide 97-71 (+26) · Ladder 15th Port Adelaide · After R17 beat North Melbourne 73-52 (+21) · Ladder 15th Port Adelaide · After R18 lost to St Kilda 73-87 (-14) · Ladder 15th Port Adelaide 15th R1 R5 R9 R14 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Zak Butters Mid · 11th league
106.2
Jason Horne-Francis Key fwd · 31st league
98.9
Jordon Sweet Ruck
83.8
Jase Burgoyne Mid
83.8
Kane Farrell Key def
83.5
Venue performance Ground split
Adelaide Oval vs NTH, ADE, SYD 10 games 40% +8.4 +7.4
Marvel Stadium vs STK, HAW, NTH 3 games 0% -21.0 -22.0
MCG vs COL, RIC 2 games · low sample 50% +7.5 +6.5
One-off venues
Optus Stadium vs WCE 1 game · low sample 100% +6.0 +5.0
TIO Stadium vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -25.0 -26.0
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Mitch Georgiades 37 · 2.2 per game
Accuracy Corey Durdin 66.7% · 1.5 goals per game · 26 goals, 13 behinds from 39 shots
Goal Assists Jason Horne-Francis 13 · 0.8 per game
Marks inside 50 Mitch Georgiades 63 · 3.7 per game
Marks Aliir Aliir 138 · 8.1 per game
One-Percenters Aliir Aliir 83 · 4.9 per game
Disposals Zak Butters 506 · 29.8 per game
Clearances Zak Butters 104 · 6.1 per game
Contested Possessions Zak Butters 208 · 12.2 per game
Tackles Willem Drew 103 · 6.1 per game
Clangers Jason Horne-Francis 74 · 4.4 per game
Free Kicks Against Jordon Sweet 35 · 2.2 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 10th Avg diff -0.3

Favourite umpires

Justin Power
Justin Power +12.4 pts

11 matches · FK diff +0.0

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +10.1 pts

17 matches · FK diff -2.3

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +7.1 pts

12 matches · FK diff -0.2

Least favourite umpires

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -11.4 pts

20 matches · FK diff -4.2

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -9.4 pts

7 matches · FK diff -0.4

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -8.8 pts

17 matches · FK diff -1.3

Show all 35 umpire rows
Justin Power
Justin Power +12.4 pts

11 matches · FK diff +0.0

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +10.1 pts

17 matches · FK diff -2.3

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +7.1 pts

12 matches · FK diff -0.2

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +6.1 pts

8 matches · FK diff -1.5

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +6.1 pts

17 matches · FK diff -0.8

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +6.0 pts

14 matches · FK diff +3.9

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +5.6 pts

36 matches · FK diff +0.4

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +4.4 pts

39 matches · FK diff -0.7

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +3.8 pts

37 matches · FK diff -0.3

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +3.7 pts

16 matches · FK diff -1.3

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +3.5 pts

35 matches · FK diff -1.4

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +3.4 pts

22 matches · FK diff -1.0

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +2.9 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff -5.2

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +2.8 pts

38 matches · FK diff +0.4

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness +2.7 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.2

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +2.2 pts

23 matches · FK diff -0.4

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +1.7 pts

38 matches · FK diff -3.1

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +1.0 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.8

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +0.7 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.5

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -0.6 pts

31 matches · FK diff -1.6

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -1.5 pts

32 matches · FK diff -1.7

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch -1.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.8

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -2.1 pts

40 matches · FK diff +0.3

Nick Foot
Nick Foot -2.7 pts

26 matches · FK diff -2.5

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -3.0 pts

19 matches · FK diff +0.6

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce -3.5 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.2

John Howorth
John Howorth -3.5 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.8

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -3.6 pts

22 matches · FK diff -1.9

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -6.4 pts

10 matches · FK diff -2.1

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -6.5 pts

15 matches · FK diff -3.4

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -7.7 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -3.3

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -8.4 pts

46 matches · FK diff -1.6

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -8.8 pts

17 matches · FK diff -1.3

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -9.4 pts

7 matches · FK diff -0.4

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -11.4 pts

20 matches · FK diff -4.2

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
14th projected finish 9.0 wins 6W after 17 played
12% Wildcard round
Top 10
5% Home final
Top 6
3% Double chance
Top 4
2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

6-10 -17.5 avg margin · 16 games · Usable sample

Port Adelaide have gone 6-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.