AFL Insights

2026 season

Gold Coast

7-3 Carrara
Ladder 4th Current position
Power +0.1 8th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -1.2
Injuries Minor 0 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
NTH
Marvel Stadium · Sat 23 May, 1:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Gold Coast

Gold Coast struggle vs top 8 sides (25%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (100%).

Avg next-5 win chance 42%
Falling Evenly-contested slate Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Evenly-contested slate
Avg opp rank 6.0 Evenly-contested slate · 42% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle
A Line ball
NTH Ladder 12th · R11 · Marvel 48% win · -40 pts
True form +14.3 advantage Interstate trip
H Line ball
BRL Ladder 7th · R13 · Carrara 59% win
True form +5.6 advantage
A Tough
GEE Ladder 3rd · R14 · Kardinia 21% win
True form -6.5 deficit Interstate trip
H Line ball
HAW Ladder 6th · R15 · Carrara 53% win
True form +2.3 advantage
A Tough
FRE Ladder 2nd · R16 · Optus 29% win
True form -8.4 deficit Interstate trip

Projected 2.1 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Stable · Mixed trend
Form heat Red hot
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +6.8
H W
PORT +25 · R10 Clinical
H W
STK +29 · R9 Clinical
H W
GWS +20 · R8 Result
A L
HAW -49 · R7 Underperformed
H W
ESS +9 · R6 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 91% 4 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Sam Clohesy Round 11
Ethan Read TBC
Jy Farrar 6+ weeks
Elliott Himmelberg 4-6 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +0.1
Lower League avg Stronger
8th power rank
Ladder rank 4th
True form 7.6
Cool Par Strong
5th
Record 7-3
TFR momentum -1.2
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +16.5
Injury load 0 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 91%
Free-kick ladder 17th -3.3
Close games 1-0 1 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Geelong
+56 Opp 1st OR Carrara

+41.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Hawthorn
-49 Opp 9th R7 UTAS Stadium

-40.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.5
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 8.2
Upset win % 0% 2 games · low sample
Win % vs top 8 25% 4 games
Win % vs bottom 10 100% 6 games
Close game win % 100% 1 game · low sample
Home win % 100% 6 games
Away win % 25% 4 games
Interstate win % 50% 6 games
Favourite win % 88% 8 games
Underdog win % 0% 2 games · low sample
Fast start rate 60% Led at Q1 in 6 of 10 games
Comeback rate 25% 4 games
Lead held at siren 100% 7 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Gold Coast · After OR beat Geelong 125-69 (+56) · Ladder 2nd Gold Coast · After R1 beat West Coast 131-72 (+59) · Ladder 2nd Gold Coast · After R2 beat Richmond 128-60 (+68) · Ladder 1st Gold Coast · After R4 lost to Melbourne 89-109 (-20) · Ladder 3rd Gold Coast · After R5 lost to Sydney 68-100 (-32) · Ladder 5th Gold Coast · After R6 beat Essendon 119-110 (+9) · Ladder 4th Gold Coast · After R7 lost to Hawthorn 63-112 (-49) · Ladder 7th Gold Coast · After R8 beat GWS 83-63 (+20) · Ladder 5th Gold Coast · After R9 beat St Kilda 89-60 (+29) · Ladder 6th Gold Coast · After R10 beat Port Adelaide 98-73 (+25) · Ladder 4th Gold Coast 4th OR R1 R2 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

John Noble Mid · 26th league
100.7
Christian Petracca Key fwd · 27th league
100.6
Noah Anderson Mid · 33rd league
98.9
Bodhi Uwland Mid · 41st league
95.4
Touk Miller Mid
90.5
Venue performance Ground split
Carrara vs GWS, ESS, WCE 4 games 100% +36.0 +19.5
TIO Stadium vs PORT, STK 2 games · low sample 100% +27.0 +10.5
MCG vs MEL, RIC 2 games · low sample 50% +24.0 +7.5
One-off venues
Norwood Oval vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -32.0 -48.5
UTAS Stadium vs HAW 1 game · low sample 0% -49.0 -65.5
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Ben King 33 · 3.3 per game
Accuracy Jake Rogers 100.0% · 0.6 goals per game · 3 goals, 0 behinds from 3 shots
Goal Assists Christian Petracca 12 · 1.5 per game
Marks inside 50 Ben King 28 · 2.8 per game
Marks Bodhi Uwland 68 · 6.8 per game
One-Percenters Sam Collins 64 · 6.4 per game
Disposals John Noble 268 · 26.8 per game
Clearances Christian Petracca 50 · 6.2 per game
Contested Possessions Christian Petracca 96 · 12.0 per game
Tackles Wil Powell 49 · 4.9 per game
Clangers Leo Lombard 35 · 3.5 per game
Free Kicks Against Jarrod Witts 16 · 2.0 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
7th projected finish 13.2 wins 7W after 10 played
73% Wildcard round
Top 10
44% Home final
Top 6
27% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

GWS

2-11 -41.9 avg margin · 13 games · Usable sample

Gold Coast have gone 2-11 against GWS across the last 10 seasons.