AFL Insights

2026 season

Gold Coast

9-14 Carrara
Ladder 13th Current position
Power -0.5 12th in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +1.1
Injuries — —
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent TBA Fixture not available yet

Tipping insight

Gold Coast need matchup context

Gold Coast struggle vs top 8 sides (8%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (73%).

Avg next-5 win chance Pending
Rising Win chances awaiting model Injuries: not modelled

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Pending

Upcoming recommendations are awaiting recompute.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend
Form heat Stable
Last 5 record 2-3
Margin Avg margin -7.8
A W
STK +23 · R24 Overperformed
A L
BRL -42 · R23 Result
A W
GWS +2 · R22 Overperformed
H L
MEL -9 · R21 Near Miss
A L
CAR -13 · R20 Result

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Availability is not available for this club yet.

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -0.5
Lower League avg Stronger
12th power rank
Ladder rank 13th
True form -7.8
Cool Par Strong
12th
Record 9-14
TFR momentum +1.1
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -5.1
Injury load — Lower is healthier
Best side available Not modelled
Free-kick ladder 17th -2.3
Close games 2-4 6 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Geelong
+56 Opp 3rd OR Carrara

+41.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.5
Remaining difficulty Fixture ranks pending Future fixture
Upset win % 18% 11 games
Win % vs top 8 8% 12 games
Win % vs bottom 10 73% 11 games
Close game win % 33% 6 games
Home win % 55% 11 games
Away win % 25% 12 games
Interstate win % 38% 13 games
Favourite win % 58% 12 games
Underdog win % 18% 11 games
Fast start rate 39% Led at Q1 in 9 of 23 games
Comeback rate 8% 12 games
Lead held at siren 90% 10 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Gold Coast · After OR beat Geelong 125-69 (+56) · Ladder 2nd Gold Coast · After R1 beat West Coast 131-72 (+59) · Ladder 2nd Gold Coast · After R2 beat Richmond 128-60 (+68) · Ladder 1st Gold Coast · After R4 lost to Melbourne 89-109 (-20) · Ladder 3rd Gold Coast · After R5 lost to Sydney 68-100 (-32) · Ladder 5th Gold Coast · After R6 beat Essendon 119-110 (+9) · Ladder 4th Gold Coast · After R7 lost to Hawthorn 63-112 (-49) · Ladder 7th Gold Coast · After R8 beat GWS 83-63 (+20) · Ladder 5th Gold Coast · After R9 beat St Kilda 89-60 (+29) · Ladder 6th Gold Coast · After R10 beat Port Adelaide 98-73 (+25) · Ladder 4th Gold Coast · After R11 lost to North Melbourne 105-111 (-6) · Ladder 5th Gold Coast · After R13 lost to Brisbane Lions 75-106 (-31) · Ladder 7th Gold Coast · After R14 lost to Geelong 60-105 (-45) · Ladder 9th Gold Coast · After R15 lost to Hawthorn 97-113 (-16) · Ladder 9th Gold Coast · After R16 lost to Fremantle 29-80 (-51) · Ladder 11th Gold Coast · After R17 lost to Collingwood 98-104 (-6) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast · After R18 lost to Adelaide 49-128 (-79) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast · After R19 lost to Western Bulldogs 68-77 (-9) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast · After R20 lost to Carlton 97-110 (-13) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast · After R21 lost to Melbourne 105-114 (-9) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast · After R22 beat GWS 79-77 (+2) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast · After R23 lost to Brisbane Lions 53-95 (-42) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast · After R24 beat St Kilda 103-80 (+23) · Ladder 13th Gold Coast 13th OR R7 R13 R18 R24

Player power

Top 5 players

Noah Anderson Mid · 15th league
103.9
Matt Rowell Mid · 18th league
102.2
John Noble Mid · 22nd league
101.3
Touk Miller Mid
91.9
Bodhi Uwland Mid
87.2
Venue performance Ground split
Carrara vs MEL, WBD, COL 9 games 44% +8.1 +13.2
Marvel Stadium vs STK, CAR, NTH 3 games 33% +1.3 +6.4
TIO Stadium vs PORT, STK 2 games · low sample 100% +27.0 +32.1
MCG vs MEL, RIC 2 games · low sample 50% +24.0 +29.1
One-off venues
Manuka Oval vs GWS 1 game · low sample 100% +2.0 +7.1
Norwood Oval vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -32.0 -26.9
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -42.0 -36.9
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -45.0 -39.9
UTAS Stadium vs HAW 1 game · low sample 0% -49.0 -43.9
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -51.0 -45.9
Adelaide Oval vs ADE 1 game · low sample 0% -79.0 -73.9
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Ben King 60 · 2.6 per game
Accuracy Jed Walter 70.2% · 1.8 goals per game · 33 goals, 14 behinds from 47 shots
Goal Assists Leo Lombard 19 · 0.8 per game
Marks inside 50 Ben King 64 · 2.8 per game
Marks John Noble 164 · 7.1 per game
One-Percenters Sam Collins 146 · 7.0 per game
Disposals Noah Anderson 608 · 27.6 per game
Clearances Matt Rowell 136 · 7.6 per game
Contested Possessions Matt Rowell 255 · 14.2 per game
Tackles Matt Rowell 125 · 6.9 per game
Clangers Matt Rowell 84 · 4.7 per game
Free Kicks Against Matt Rowell 35 · 1.9 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 17th Avg diff -2.3

Favourite umpires

Matthew Young
Matthew Young +11.7 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +4.3

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +5.9 pts

39 matches · FK diff -0.6

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +4.8 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.5

Least favourite umpires

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -11.2 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.2

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -9.5 pts

30 matches · FK diff +1.1

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -8.4 pts

18 matches · FK diff -0.9

Show all 36 umpire rows
Matthew Young
Matthew Young +11.7 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +4.3

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +5.9 pts

39 matches · FK diff -0.6

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +4.8 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.5

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +3.6 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +5.8

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +3.4 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.1

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +3.3 pts

8 matches · FK diff +2.8

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +3.3 pts

28 matches · FK diff -0.8

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +2.4 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.8

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +2.1 pts

15 matches · FK diff -1.4

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +2.1 pts

12 matches · FK diff -1.6

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +0.6 pts

18 matches · FK diff -1.4

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -0.7 pts

24 matches · FK diff -1.0

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -1.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff -0.1

Justin Power
Justin Power -1.3 pts

11 matches · FK diff +0.5

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -1.9 pts

10 matches · FK diff -1.5

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -1.9 pts

34 matches · FK diff -0.8

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -2.3 pts

29 matches · FK diff -2.4

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -2.6 pts

19 matches · FK diff -0.7

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -2.9 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.5

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -2.9 pts

28 matches · FK diff -0.1

John Howorth
John Howorth -3.0 pts

24 matches · FK diff +0.3

Nick Brown
Nick Brown -3.0 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.9

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -3.6 pts

20 matches · FK diff -2.4

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -4.0 pts

9 matches · FK diff -1.3

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -4.1 pts

19 matches · FK diff -2.2

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -4.8 pts

19 matches · FK diff +0.6

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch -5.4 pts

8 matches · FK diff -0.9

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -5.4 pts

21 matches · FK diff -2.2

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -5.6 pts

25 matches · FK diff -1.5

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -5.6 pts

14 matches · FK diff -1.5

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones -5.7 pts

8 matches · FK diff +0.0

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -7.1 pts

19 matches · FK diff +1.5

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -7.7 pts

29 matches · FK diff -1.0

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -8.4 pts

18 matches · FK diff -0.9

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -9.5 pts

30 matches · FK diff +1.1

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -11.2 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.2

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals eliminated
13th projected finish 9.0 wins 9W after 23 played
0% Wildcard round
Top 10
0% Home final
Top 6
0% Double chance
Top 4
0% Top 2
Top 2

Round 23 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

GWS

3-11 -38.8 avg margin · 14 games · Usable sample

Gold Coast have gone 3-11 against GWS across the last 10 seasons.