AFL Insights

2026 season

Gold Coast

7-10 Carrara
Ladder 14th Current position
Power -3.8 16th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -1.4
Injuries Minor 1.8 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
WBD
Carrara · Sun 19 Jul, 3:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Gold Coast

Gold Coast struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (78%).

Avg next-5 win chance 37%
Falling Tough slate Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Tough slate
Avg opp rank 8.0 Tough slate · 37% avg win prob Toughest Brisbane Lions
H Line ball
WBD Ladder 7th · R19 · Carrara 55% win · +10 pts
True form -13.5 deficit Opp major injury load
A Line ball
CAR Ladder 12th · R20 · Marvel 57% win
True form -1.6 deficit Interstate trip
H Tough
MEL Ladder 6th · R21 · Carrara 25% win
True form -22.9 deficit
A Tough
GWS Ladder 11th · R22 · Manuka Oval 27% win
True form -9.0 deficit Interstate trip
A Tough
BRL Ladder 4th · R23 · Gabba 22% win
True form -23.2 deficit

Projected 1.9 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 0-5
Margin Avg margin -39.4
A L
ADE -79 · R18 Underperformed
H L
COL -6 · R17 Underperformed
A L
FRE -51 · R16 Underperformed
H L
HAW -16 · R15 Result
A L
GEE -45 · R14 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 84% 6 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Alex Davies Test
Elliott Himmelberg Season
Lachie Weller 1-3 weeks
Will Graham TBC

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Worsening — more players out

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -3.8
Lower League avg Stronger
16th power rank
Ladder rank 14th
True form -10.7
Cool Par Strong
15th
Record 7-10
TFR momentum -1.4
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -4.1
Injury load 1.8 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 84%
Free-kick ladder 17th -2.4
Close games 1-2 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Geelong
+56 Opp 3rd OR Carrara

+41.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.7
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 10.0
Upset win % 0% 6 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 8 games
Win % vs bottom 10 78% 9 games
Close game win % 33% 3 games
Home win % 67% 9 games
Away win % 12% 8 games
Interstate win % 30% 10 games
Favourite win % 64% 11 games
Underdog win % 0% 6 games
Fast start rate 41% Led at Q1 in 7 of 17 games
Comeback rate 10% 10 games
Lead held at siren 88% 8 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Gold Coast · After OR beat Geelong 125-69 (+56) · Ladder 2nd Gold Coast · After R1 beat West Coast 131-72 (+59) · Ladder 2nd Gold Coast · After R2 beat Richmond 128-60 (+68) · Ladder 1st Gold Coast · After R4 lost to Melbourne 89-109 (-20) · Ladder 3rd Gold Coast · After R5 lost to Sydney 68-100 (-32) · Ladder 5th Gold Coast · After R6 beat Essendon 119-110 (+9) · Ladder 4th Gold Coast · After R7 lost to Hawthorn 63-112 (-49) · Ladder 7th Gold Coast · After R8 beat GWS 83-63 (+20) · Ladder 5th Gold Coast · After R9 beat St Kilda 89-60 (+29) · Ladder 6th Gold Coast · After R10 beat Port Adelaide 98-73 (+25) · Ladder 4th Gold Coast · After R11 lost to North Melbourne 105-111 (-6) · Ladder 5th Gold Coast · After R13 lost to Brisbane Lions 75-106 (-31) · Ladder 7th Gold Coast · After R14 lost to Geelong 60-105 (-45) · Ladder 9th Gold Coast · After R15 lost to Hawthorn 97-113 (-16) · Ladder 9th Gold Coast · After R16 lost to Fremantle 29-80 (-51) · Ladder 11th Gold Coast · After R17 lost to Collingwood 98-104 (-6) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast · After R18 lost to Adelaide 49-128 (-79) · Ladder 14th Gold Coast 14th OR R5 R9 R14 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Noah Anderson Mid · 18th league
104.7
John Noble Mid · 30th league
99.3
Matt Rowell Mid
91.1
Christian Petracca Key fwd
90.1
Bodhi Uwland Mid
88.9
Venue performance Ground split
Carrara vs COL, HAW, BRL 7 games 57% +13.0 +17.1
TIO Stadium vs PORT, STK 2 games · low sample 100% +27.0 +31.1
MCG vs MEL, RIC 2 games · low sample 50% +24.0 +28.1
One-off venues
Marvel Stadium vs NTH 1 game · low sample 0% -6.0 -1.9
Norwood Oval vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -32.0 -27.9
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -45.0 -40.9
UTAS Stadium vs HAW 1 game · low sample 0% -49.0 -44.9
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -51.0 -46.9
Adelaide Oval vs ADE 1 game · low sample 0% -79.0 -74.9
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Ben King 47 · 2.8 per game
Accuracy Ben King 74.6% · 2.8 goals per game · 47 goals, 16 behinds from 63 shots
Goal Assists Christian Petracca 16 · 1.1 per game
Marks inside 50 Ben King 45 · 2.6 per game
Marks Mac Andrew 120 · 7.1 per game
One-Percenters Sam Collins 120 · 7.1 per game
Disposals Noah Anderson 449 · 28.1 per game
Clearances Christian Petracca 85 · 5.7 per game
Contested Possessions Christian Petracca 183 · 12.2 per game
Tackles Matt Rowell 70 · 5.8 per game
Clangers Christian Petracca 59 · 3.9 per game
Free Kicks Against Bailey Humphrey 24 · 1.7 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 17th Avg diff -2.4

Favourite umpires

Matthew Young
Matthew Young +11.7 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +4.3

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +5.9 pts

39 matches · FK diff -0.6

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +4.8 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.5

Least favourite umpires

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -11.2 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.2

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones -10.4 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.5

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -9.5 pts

30 matches · FK diff +1.1

Show all 35 umpire rows
Matthew Young
Matthew Young +11.7 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +4.3

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher +5.9 pts

39 matches · FK diff -0.6

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +4.8 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.5

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +3.4 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.1

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +3.3 pts

8 matches · FK diff +2.8

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +3.3 pts

28 matches · FK diff -0.8

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +2.4 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.8

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +2.1 pts

15 matches · FK diff -1.4

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +2.1 pts

12 matches · FK diff -1.6

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +0.6 pts

18 matches · FK diff -1.4

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -0.7 pts

24 matches · FK diff -1.0

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -1.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff -0.1

Justin Power
Justin Power -1.3 pts

11 matches · FK diff +0.5

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -1.6 pts

32 matches · FK diff -0.8

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -1.9 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.1

John Howorth
John Howorth -2.4 pts

22 matches · FK diff +1.0

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -2.8 pts

27 matches · FK diff +0.2

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -2.9 pts

9 matches · FK diff -1.7

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -2.9 pts

17 matches · FK diff +0.5

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -3.4 pts

18 matches · FK diff -2.5

Nick Brown
Nick Brown -3.6 pts

28 matches · FK diff +0.9

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -3.8 pts

8 matches · FK diff -0.1

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -4.0 pts

27 matches · FK diff -2.7

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -4.1 pts

19 matches · FK diff -2.2

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -4.8 pts

19 matches · FK diff +0.6

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -5.4 pts

21 matches · FK diff -2.2

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -5.6 pts

25 matches · FK diff -1.5

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -5.6 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.8

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -7.6 pts

28 matches · FK diff -0.8

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch -7.9 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.0

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -8.4 pts

18 matches · FK diff -0.9

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -8.7 pts

17 matches · FK diff +1.8

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -9.5 pts

30 matches · FK diff +1.1

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones -10.4 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.5

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -11.2 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.2

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
14th projected finish 9.3 wins 7W after 17 played
16% Wildcard round
Top 10
5% Home final
Top 6
3% Double chance
Top 4
2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

GWS

2-11 -41.9 avg margin · 13 games · Usable sample

Gold Coast have gone 2-11 against GWS across the last 10 seasons.