AFL Insights
Matthew Young

Umpire profile

Matthew Young

No. 38 Heritage 457 Active Last officiated 23 Aug 2025

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

30.2%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 43 · Baseline 28.6% · +1.7 pts

Victorian bias

+9.1 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 13 · Free-kick diff +0.8

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Hawthorn
7 +16.0 pts +2.1
2
Gold Coast
6 +11.7 pts +4.3
3
St Kilda
6 +6.8 pts -1.0
4
Carlton
1 +6.2 pts -2.0
5
Western Bulldogs
3 +5.0 pts +1.7
6
Collingwood
2 +3.5 pts +3.5
7
Essendon
6 -0.2 pts +1.8
8
West Coast
9 -0.7 pts -2.4
9
Richmond
9 -1.6 pts -2.6
10
Melbourne
7 -2.0 pts +1.7
11
Brisbane Lions
1 -3.5 pts +1.0
12
GWS
2 -3.6 pts -5.0
13
Adelaide
3 -4.0 pts -3.3
14
North Melbourne
10 -4.1 pts -1.0
15
Sydney
2 -4.4 pts +5.5
16
Port Adelaide
6 -7.7 pts -3.3
17
Fremantle
6 -8.9 pts +1.8
18
Geelong
4 -9.2 pts +1.0

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Essendon 15.14 104 def. Melbourne 11.11 77 74

Round 5 · 15 Apr 2023 · Adelaide Oval

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 27-pt win · 19.5-pt dog

Western Bulldogs 14.7 91 def. by Hawthorn 14.14 98 68

Round 8 · 5 May 2024 · Marvel Stadium

4.25 odds · 81% favourite · 7-pt win · 25.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 10.13 73 def. Geelong 7.12 54 66

Round 3 · 2 Apr 2023 · Carrara

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 19-pt win · 17.5-pt dog

Melbourne 16.11 107 def. Fremantle 14.13 97 62

Round 6 · 19 Apr 2025 · MCG

3.35 odds · 74% favourite · 10-pt win · 19.5-pt dog

St Kilda 15.8 98 def. Geelong 13.13 91 61

Round 2 · 22 Mar 2025 · Marvel Stadium

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 7-pt win · 20.5-pt dog