AFL Insights
Matt Stevic

Umpire profile

Matt Stevic

No. 9 Heritage 397 Active Last officiated 5 Sep 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

29.5%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 95 · Baseline 28.3% · +1.2 pts

Victorian bias

+6.1 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 123 · Free-kick diff +1.1

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Hawthorn
47 +7.9 pts +0.3
2
North Melbourne
30 +7.4 pts +0.7
3
Geelong
53 +6.0 pts +0.0
4
Richmond
46 +5.4 pts -2.8
5
Western Bulldogs
36 +3.9 pts +2.1
6
St Kilda
37 +1.4 pts +0.1
7
Melbourne
43 +0.3 pts +0.9
8
Port Adelaide
31 -0.6 pts -1.6
9
Brisbane Lions
21 -0.7 pts +3.5
10
Adelaide
37 -0.8 pts +1.0
11
GWS
42 -1.0 pts -1.3
12
Fremantle
35 -1.5 pts -3.3
13
Sydney
46 -1.7 pts -0.4
14
West Coast
29 -3.5 pts +0.0
15
Collingwood
56 -4.5 pts +0.9
16
Essendon
28 -6.1 pts +0.2
17
Carlton
39 -7.4 pts +1.0
18
Gold Coast
22 -11.2 pts +0.2

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Western Bulldogs 5.11 41 def. by St Kilda 14.8 92 77

Round 2 · 25 Mar 2023 · Marvel Stadium

2.62 odds · 66% favourite · 51-pt win · 11.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 13.19 97 def. Adelaide 11.5 71 77

Round 16 · 27 Jun 2026 · Adelaide Oval

3.80 odds · 79% favourite · 26-pt win · 22.5-pt dog

Collingwood 10.14 74 def. by West Coast 14.3 87 72

Round 4 · 9 Apr 2022 · Marvel Stadium

4.25 odds · 81% favourite · 13-pt win · 25.5-pt dog

Melbourne 9.7 61 def. by Sydney 10.13 73 69

Round 12 · 4 Jun 2022 · MCG

4.20 odds · 81% favourite · 12-pt win · 23.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 10.11 71 def. by Carlton 16.11 107 64

Round 12 · 30 May 2024 · Adelaide Oval

2.40 odds · 62% favourite · 36-pt win · 7.5-pt dog