AFL Insights
Justin Power

Umpire profile

Justin Power

No. 4 Heritage 442 Active Last officiated 11 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

35.2%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 91 · Baseline 28.6% · +6.6 pts

Victorian bias

-5.5 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 59 · Free-kick diff +0.2

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Port Adelaide
11 +12.4 pts +0.0
2
Fremantle
27 +11.2 pts -0.7
3
Brisbane Lions
12 +10.3 pts +2.8
4
Richmond
17 +3.4 pts -3.6
5
Adelaide
14 +2.9 pts +1.8
6
St Kilda
15 +0.3 pts -0.5
7
Geelong
25 -0.2 pts +0.2
8
Carlton
19 -0.2 pts +1.6
9
Collingwood
17 -0.3 pts -0.5
10
Gold Coast
11 -1.3 pts +0.5
11
Western Bulldogs
13 -2.1 pts +2.3
12
GWS
19 -2.2 pts -0.4
13
Sydney
22 -2.7 pts -0.1
14
North Melbourne
16 -2.8 pts -0.9
15
West Coast
14 -5.3 pts +0.4
16
Essendon
18 -6.8 pts +1.4
17
Hawthorn
13 -8.0 pts -1.9
18
Melbourne
11 -12.2 pts -1.4

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Melbourne 7.14 56 def. by Fremantle 14.10 94 87

Round 11 · 28 May 2022 · MCG

4.50 odds · 82% favourite · 38-pt win · 27.5-pt dog

Sydney 8.13 61 def. by Gold Coast 10.15 75 82

Round 8 · 7 May 2022 · SCG

5.60 odds · 86% favourite · 14-pt win · 34.5-pt dog

West Coast 8.8 56 def. by Richmond 16.9 105 71

Round 19 · 19 Jul 2025 · Optus Stadium

2.30 odds · 61% favourite · 49-pt win · 6.5-pt dog

Hawthorn 8.12 60 def. by Brisbane Lions 14.9 93 70

Round 11 · 24 May 2025 · MCG

2.80 odds · 68% favourite · 33-pt win · 13.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 18.13 121 def. Hawthorn 14.7 91 69

Round 5 · 13 Apr 2025 · Adelaide Oval

2.85 odds · 69% favourite · 30-pt win · 15.5-pt dog