Peter Bailes

Umpire profile

Peter Bailes

No. 35 Heritage 460 Active Last officiated 5 Sep 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

28.1%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 64 · Baseline 28.3% · -0.2 pts

Victorian bias

+9.3 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 21 · Free-kick diff +2.7

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Western Bulldogs
10 +16.0 pts +1.9
2
Sydney
5 +8.6 pts +0.2
3
Richmond
7 +5.5 pts +2.7
4
Essendon
8 +4.7 pts +1.5
5
Carlton
7 +2.2 pts +6.3
6
Adelaide
9 +1.8 pts +0.2
7
Collingwood
5 +0.3 pts -2.8
8
Melbourne
7 -0.2 pts +2.3
9
GWS
11 -0.3 pts -3.8
10
West Coast
7 -0.3 pts +1.3
11
Hawthorn
7 -0.4 pts -0.1
12
North Melbourne
11 -0.5 pts +0.8
13
Fremantle
8 -0.7 pts -2.9
14
Gold Coast
9 -4.0 pts -1.3
15
Port Adelaide
11 -5.2 pts -1.5
16
Geelong
9 -7.3 pts -1.3
17
Brisbane Lions
5 -9.8 pts -0.2
18
St Kilda
6 -11.9 pts -1.5

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Sydney 21.15 141 def. Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 85

Finals Week 1 · 5 Sep 2026 · SCG

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 53-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

Essendon 17.11 113 def. Melbourne 10.8 68 85

Round 5 · 11 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 45-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 20.12 132 def. Gold Coast 14.13 97 80

Round 24 · 26 Aug 2023 · Blundstone Arena

3.50 odds · 76% favourite · 35-pt win · 20.5-pt dog

Hawthorn 14.6 90 def. by Melbourne 19.11 125 75

Round 17 · 4 Jul 2026 · UTAS Stadium

3.06 odds · 72% favourite · 35-pt win · 17.5-pt dog

Geelong 7.6 48 def. by Western Bulldogs 13.17 95 72

Round 19 · 20 Jul 2024 · Kardinia Park

2.35 odds · 61% favourite · 47-pt win · 9.5-pt dog