AFL Insights
Peter Bailes

Umpire profile

Peter Bailes

No. 35 Heritage 460 Active Last officiated 10 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

27.6%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 58 · Baseline 28.6% · -1.0 pts

Victorian bias

+9.4 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 20 · Free-kick diff +2.3

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Western Bulldogs
9 +15.6 pts +3.0
2
Richmond
7 +5.5 pts +2.7
3
Essendon
8 +4.7 pts +1.5
4
Carlton
5 +3.8 pts +5.0
5
Sydney
4 +2.9 pts -0.8
6
Fremantle
6 +1.6 pts -1.5
7
Hawthorn
6 +1.4 pts -0.3
8
GWS
10 +1.3 pts -4.1
9
Collingwood
5 +0.3 pts -2.8
10
Adelaide
8 +0.1 pts +0.1
11
West Coast
7 -0.3 pts +1.3
12
Melbourne
6 -1.4 pts +1.0
13
North Melbourne
10 -2.0 pts +1.0
14
Gold Coast
8 -3.8 pts -0.1
15
Brisbane Lions
4 -4.2 pts +0.8
16
Port Adelaide
10 -6.4 pts -2.1
17
Geelong
9 -7.3 pts -1.3
18
St Kilda
6 -11.9 pts -1.5

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Essendon 17.11 113 def. Melbourne 10.8 68 85

Round 5 · 11 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 45-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 20.12 132 def. Gold Coast 14.13 97 80

Round 24 · 26 Aug 2023 · Blundstone Arena

3.50 odds · 76% favourite · 35-pt win · 20.5-pt dog

Hawthorn 14.6 90 def. by Melbourne 19.11 125 75

Round 17 · 4 Jul 2026 · UTAS Stadium

3.06 odds · 72% favourite · 35-pt win · 17.5-pt dog

Geelong 7.6 48 def. by Western Bulldogs 13.17 95 72

Round 19 · 20 Jul 2024 · Kardinia Park

2.35 odds · 61% favourite · 47-pt win · 9.5-pt dog

Adelaide 10.11 71 def. by Richmond 12.7 79 69

Round 13 · 6 Jun 2024 · Adelaide Oval

4.25 odds · 81% favourite · 8-pt win · 26.5-pt dog