2026 Richmond club intelligence

2026 season

Richmond

2-15 MCG

Ladder 17th Current position

Power -2.5 15th in league

True form Rising TFR momentum: +3.0

Injuries Major 12.5 pts

Confidence Low Low tipping confidence

Next opponent

HAW

MCG · Sun 19 Jul, 1:10 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Richmond

Richmond struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but have not banked bottom 10 games (20%).

Avg next-5 win chance 35%

Rising Tough slate Injuries: Major

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Tough slate

Avg opp rank 8.2 Tough slate · 35% avg win prob Toughest Hawthorn

H Tough

HAW Ladder 3rd · R19 · MCG 12% win · -48 pts

True form -32.8 deficit Opp moderate injury load

A Line ball

WBD Ladder 7th · R20 · Marvel 46% win

True form -19.3 deficit

H Line ball

WCE Ladder 16th · R21 · MCG 48% win

True form -1.3 deficit

A Tough

ADE Ladder 5th · R22 · Adel Oval 25% win

True form -28.8 deficit Interstate trip

H Tough

STK Ladder 10th · R23 · MCG 42% win

True form -14.0 deficit Opp moderate injury load

Projected 1.7 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down

Form heat Ice cold

Last 5 record 0-5

Margin Avg margin -28.4

A L

MEL -46 · R18 Result

H L

CAR -2 · R17 Overperformed

A L

COL -34 · R16 Result

H L

NTH -25 · R15 Result

H L

BRL -35 · R14 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Major 79% 9 listed injuries

Clear Manageable Major

Jack Ross TBC

Ben Miller TBC

Luke Trainor Test

Jacob Hopper TBC

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Worsening — more players out

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -2.5

Lower League avg Stronger

15th power rank

Ladder rank 17th

True form -16.5

Cool Par Strong

17th

Record 2-15

TFR momentum +3.0

Declining Stable Rising

Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)

Avg margin -38.8

Injury load 12.5 pts

Clear Manageable Major

Lower is healthier

Best side available 79%

Free-kick ladder 3rd +1.3

Close games 1-2 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v West Coast

+11 Opp 12th R8 Optus Stadium

+30.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Gold Coast

-68 Opp 16th R2 MCG

-35.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.2

Remaining difficulty Tough run home Avg opp rank 7.7

Upset win % 12% 17 games

Win % vs top 8 0% 7 games

Win % vs bottom 10 20% 10 games

Close game win % 33% 3 games

Home win % 12% 8 games

Away win % 11% 9 games

Interstate win % 20% 5 games

Underdog win % 12% 17 games

Fast start rate 18% Led at Q1 in 3 of 17 games

Comeback rate 0% 14 games

Lead held at siren 100% 2 games · low sample

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

Player power

Top 5 players

Jayden Short Mid · 44th league

93.1

Tim Taranto Mid

91.1

Jack Ross Mid

84.2

Toby Nankervis Ruck

79.3

Sam Lalor Key fwd

74.3

Venue performance Ground split

MCG vs MEL, CAR, COL 10 games 10% -29.4 +9.4

Optus Stadium vs WCE, FRE 2 games · low sample 50% -24.5 +14.3

Marvel Stadium vs STK, NTH 2 games · low sample 0% -55.5 -16.7

One-off venues

Blundstone Arena vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -35.0 +3.8

Barossa Park vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -56.0 -17.2

SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -114.0 -75.2

Stat leaders Club leaders

Goals Mykelti Lefau 15 · 1.0 per game

Accuracy Sam Cumming 88.9% · 0.7 goals per game · 8 goals, 1 behinds from 9 shots

Goal Assists Seth Campbell 12 · 0.7 per game

Marks inside 50 Tom Lynch 21 · 2.3 per game

Marks Ben Miller 107 · 6.3 per game

One-Percenters Ben Miller 120 · 7.1 per game

Disposals Jayden Short 361 · 24.1 per game

Clearances Tim Taranto 88 · 5.9 per game

Contested Possessions Tim Taranto 184 · 12.3 per game

Tackles Tim Taranto 69 · 4.6 per game

Clangers Jacob Hopper 66 · 5.5 per game

Free Kicks Against Jacob Hopper 18 · 1.5 per game

Umpire profile Rub of the green

FK rank 3rd Avg diff +1.3

Favourite umpires

Rob O'Gorman +6.0 pts

28 matches · FK diff -3.3

Peter Bailes +5.5 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.7

Matt Stevic +5.4 pts

46 matches · FK diff -2.8

Least favourite umpires

Paul Rebeschini -10.8 pts

15 matches · FK diff -2.0

Jordan Fry -8.4 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.0

Andrew Stephens -8.3 pts

25 matches · FK diff -2.2

Show all 38 umpire rows

Rob O'Gorman +6.0 pts

28 matches · FK diff -3.3

Peter Bailes +5.5 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.7

Matt Stevic +5.4 pts

46 matches · FK diff -2.8

Justin Power +3.4 pts

17 matches · FK diff -3.6

Andrew Heffernan +2.9 pts

12 matches · FK diff -1.1

Brendan Hosking +2.6 pts

38 matches · FK diff -2.8

Simon Meredith +2.5 pts

37 matches · FK diff -2.2

Hayden Meyer +2.3 pts

22 matches · FK diff -2.3

Brett Rosebury +1.7 pts

43 matches · FK diff -1.3

Mathew Nicholls +1.6 pts

30 matches · FK diff -1.5

Craig Fleer +1.6 pts

32 matches · FK diff -2.4

Andrew Adair +1.0 pts

15 matches · FK diff -0.3

Jamie Broadbent +1.0 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -3.0

Alex Whetton +0.8 pts

13 matches · FK diff -3.5

Curtis Deboy +0.8 pts

22 matches · FK diff -3.5

Joel Clamp +0.5 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Andre Gianfagna +0.3 pts

14 matches · FK diff -2.8

Brent Wallace -0.1 pts

11 matches · FK diff +0.0

Nathan Toner -1.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff +1.1

Jacob Mollison -1.2 pts

39 matches · FK diff -0.9

Eleni Tee -1.3 pts

12 matches · FK diff -2.2

John Howorth -1.3 pts

14 matches · FK diff -2.7

Matthew Young -1.6 pts

9 matches · FK diff -2.6

Nathan Williamson -2.0 pts

20 matches · FK diff -1.0

Tom Bryce -2.4 pts

9 matches · FK diff -2.2

Harrison Birch -2.7 pts

10 matches · FK diff -3.1

Nick Foot -3.4 pts

30 matches · FK diff -1.3

Leigh Fisher -3.5 pts

42 matches · FK diff -0.2

Cameron Jones -4.0 pts

9 matches · FK diff -3.4

Cameron Dore -4.0 pts

15 matches · FK diff -2.2

Nick Jankovskis -5.2 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.4

Nick Brown -5.5 pts

17 matches · FK diff -4.7

Daniel Johanson -5.9 pts

11 matches · FK diff -3.2

Nicholas McGinness -6.3 pts

10 matches · FK diff -2.6

Martin Rodger -7.2 pts

9 matches · FK diff -0.6

Andrew Stephens -8.3 pts

25 matches · FK diff -2.2

Jordan Fry -8.4 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.0

Paul Rebeschini -10.8 pts

15 matches · FK diff -2.0

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely

17th projected finish 4.3 wins 2W after 17 played

8% Wildcard round
Top 10

5% Home final
Top 6

3% Double chance
Top 4

2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Western Bulldogs

4-6 -17.8 avg margin · 10 games · Usable sample

Richmond have gone 4-6 against Western Bulldogs across the last 10 seasons.