AFL Insights

2026 season

Richmond

1-9 MCG
Ladder 18th Current position
Power -5.0 18th in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +1.2
Injuries Major 16.4 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
ESS
MCG · Fri 22 May, 7:40 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Richmond

Richmond struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but have not banked bottom 10 games (17%).

Avg next-5 win chance 26%
Rising Very tough run Injuries: Major

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Very tough run
Avg opp rank 9.6 Very tough run · 26% avg win prob Toughest Sydney
H Tough
ESS Ladder 17th · R11 · MCG 20% win · -29 pts
Opp moderate injury load
A Tough
SYD Ladder 1st · R12 · SCG 21% win
True form -33.1 deficit Interstate trip
H Tough
BRL Ladder 7th · R14 · Bellerive Oval 36% win
True form -21.3 deficit
H Tough
NTH Ladder 12th · R15 · MCG 37% win
True form -12.6 deficit
A Tough
COL Ladder 11th · R16 · MCG 18% win
True form -19.1 deficit

Projected 1.3 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 1-4
Margin Avg margin -38.2
A L
STK -36 · R10 Result
H L
ADE -37 · R9 Result
A W
WCE +11 · R8 Overperformed
H L
MEL -54 · R7 Underperformed
A L
NTH -75 · R6 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Major 66% 17 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Sam Lalor 6-9 weeks
Kane McAuliffe TBC
Dion Prestia 2 weeks
Toby Nankervis 4-5 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Worsening — more players out

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -5.0
Lower League avg Stronger
18th power rank
Ladder rank 18th
True form -19.2
Cool Par Strong
18th
Record 1-9
TFR momentum +1.2
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -42.1
Injury load 16.4 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 66%
Free-kick ladder 6th +1.0
Close games 1-1 2 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v West Coast
+11 Opp 16th R8 Optus Stadium

+30.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Carlton
-4 Opp 7th R1 MCG

+16.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.8
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 8.9
Upset win % 10% 10 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 4 games
Win % vs bottom 10 17% 6 games
Close game win % 50% 2 games · low sample
Home win % 0% 4 games
Away win % 17% 6 games
Interstate win % 33% 3 games
Underdog win % 10% 10 games
Fast start rate 10% Led at Q1 in 1 of 10 games
Comeback rate 0% 8 games
Lead held at siren 100% 1 game · low sample

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Richmond · After R1 lost to Carlton 71-75 (-4) · Ladder 12th Richmond · After R2 lost to Gold Coast 60-128 (-68) · Ladder 17th Richmond · After R3 lost to Fremantle 43-103 (-60) · Ladder 18th Richmond · After R4 lost to Port Adelaide 48-90 (-42) · Ladder 18th Richmond · After R5 lost to GWS 75-131 (-56) · Ladder 18th Richmond · After R6 lost to North Melbourne 55-130 (-75) · Ladder 18th Richmond · After R7 lost to Melbourne 72-126 (-54) · Ladder 18th Richmond · After R8 beat West Coast 99-88 (+11) · Ladder 18th Richmond · After R9 lost to Adelaide 61-98 (-37) · Ladder 18th Richmond · After R10 lost to St Kilda 73-109 (-36) · Ladder 18th Richmond 18th R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Jayden Short Mid · 31st league
99
Jack Ross Mid
90.3
Toby Nankervis Ruck
85
Rhyan Mansell Key fwd
82
Tim Taranto Mid
81.9
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs ADE, MEL, PORT 5 games 0% -41.0 +1.1
Optus Stadium vs WCE, FRE 2 games · low sample 50% -24.5 +17.6
Marvel Stadium vs STK, NTH 2 games · low sample 0% -55.5 -13.4
One-off venues
Barossa Park vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -56.0 -13.9
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Seth Campbell 12 · 1.2 per game
Accuracy Liam Fawcett 80.0% · 2.0 goals per game · 8 goals, 2 behinds from 10 shots
Goal Assists Sam Lalor 9 · 1.3 per game
Marks inside 50 Tom Lynch 15 · 2.5 per game
Marks Jayden Short 74 · 8.2 per game
One-Percenters Ben Miller 78 · 7.8 per game
Disposals Jack Ross 235 · 23.5 per game
Clearances Tim Taranto 48 · 6.0 per game
Contested Possessions Jack Ross 117 · 11.7 per game
Tackles Jack Ross 51 · 5.1 per game
Clangers Jacob Hopper 55 · 6.1 per game
Free Kicks Against Campbell Gray 14 · 1.6 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
17th projected finish 6.0 wins 1W after 10 played
19% Wildcard round
Top 10
11% Home final
Top 6
7% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Western Bulldogs

4-6 -17.8 avg margin · 10 games · Usable sample

Richmond have gone 4-6 against Western Bulldogs across the last 10 seasons.