AFL Insights
Nick Jankovskis

Umpire profile

Nick Jankovskis

No. 1 Heritage 462 Active Last officiated 22 Aug 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

20.0%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 40 · Baseline 28.3% · -8.3 pts

Victorian bias

-1.2 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 11 · Free-kick diff +3.6

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
North Melbourne
5 +7.6 pts -2.2
2
GWS
3 +6.3 pts -1.3
3
Melbourne
9 +4.6 pts -1.2
4
Gold Coast
3 +3.5 pts +0.3
5
Carlton
1 +3.2 pts +3.0
6
Port Adelaide
3 +2.9 pts -2.7
7
Hawthorn
3 +2.8 pts +5.7
8
St Kilda
5 +2.3 pts +4.4
9
Sydney
3 +2.0 pts -9.0
10
Collingwood
3 +1.3 pts +0.3
11
Essendon
5 +1.0 pts +2.8
12
Western Bulldogs
2 -0.4 pts +1.5
13
West Coast
11 -1.6 pts +1.0
14
Geelong
3 -2.6 pts -4.0
15
Adelaide
2 -2.9 pts +2.0
16
Fremantle
4 -4.2 pts +1.0
17
Richmond
13 -5.5 pts +0.8
18
Brisbane Lions
6 -14.1 pts -2.8

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Essendon 17.11 113 def. Melbourne 10.8 68 85

Round 5 · 11 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 45-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 def. by Melbourne 14.15 99 79

Round 10 · 18 May 2025 · Gabba

5.75 odds · 88% favourite · 11-pt win · 33.5-pt dog

GWS 26.10 166 def. Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 78

Round 11 · 24 May 2026 · ENGIE Stadium

2.71 odds · 68% favourite · 78-pt win · 14.5-pt dog

GWS 7.8 50 def. by Port Adelaide 9.12 66 67

Round 13 · 7 Jun 2025 · Manuka Oval

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 16-pt win · 19.5-pt dog

Melbourne 16.11 107 def. Fremantle 14.13 97 62

Round 6 · 19 Apr 2025 · MCG

3.35 odds · 74% favourite · 10-pt win · 19.5-pt dog