Mathew Nicholls

Umpire profile

Mathew Nicholls

No. 15 Heritage 394 Active Last officiated 16 May 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

31.0%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 71 · Baseline 28.6% · +2.4 pts

Victorian bias

-3.2 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 107 · Free-kick diff +1.0

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Fremantle
22 +6.5 pts +0.0
2
Sydney
50 +6.1 pts -0.9
3
Port Adelaide
39 +4.4 pts -0.7
4
Brisbane Lions
26 +2.3 pts +2.0
5
West Coast
29 +2.3 pts +0.4
6
Hawthorn
39 +2.1 pts +0.1
7
Richmond
30 +1.6 pts -1.5
8
Adelaide
25 +1.4 pts +0.8
9
Collingwood
36 +0.2 pts +2.5
10
Carlton
29 -0.3 pts +0.3
11
Gold Coast
24 -0.7 pts -1.0
12
Essendon
28 -1.1 pts +0.9
13
Western Bulldogs
28 -1.2 pts +1.4
14
Melbourne
23 -2.8 pts -1.6
15
GWS
31 -4.0 pts -3.0
16
St Kilda
24 -4.7 pts -1.7
17
Geelong
44 -5.7 pts +0.9
18
North Melbourne
35 -7.7 pts +0.6

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Essendon 17.11 113 def. Melbourne 10.8 68 85

Round 5 · 11 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 45-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 13.17 95 def. Geelong 10.5 65 83

Round 7 · 25 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 30-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 17.11 113 def. Port Adelaide 9.13 67 73

Round 1 · 15 Mar 2026 · Marvel Stadium

2.43 odds · 64% favourite · 46-pt win · 10.5-pt dog

Geelong 7.6 48 def. by Western Bulldogs 13.17 95 72

Round 19 · 20 Jul 2024 · Kardinia Park

2.35 odds · 61% favourite · 47-pt win · 9.5-pt dog

Brisbane Lions 8.16 64 def. by GWS 13.4 82 68

Round 22 · 10 Aug 2024 · Gabba

3.35 odds · 74% favourite · 18-pt win · 21.5-pt dog