AFL Insights

2026 season

Hawthorn

11-5-1 MCG
Ladder 3rd Current position
Power +4.8 1st in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +3.4
Injuries Moderate 9.6 pts
Confidence High High tipping confidence
Next opponent
RIC
MCG · Sun 19 Jul, 1:10 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Hawthorn profile is tip-friendly

Hawthorn are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (38%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (89%).

Avg next-5 win chance 77%
Rising Favourable run Injuries: Moderate

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Favourable run
Avg opp rank 12.0 Favourable run · 77% avg win prob Toughest Brisbane Lions
A Favourable
RIC Ladder 17th · R19 · MCG 88% win · +48 pts
True form +32.8 advantage Opp major injury load
H Favourable
ESS Ladder 18th · R20 · MCG 88% win
True form +36.2 advantage
H Favourable
NTH Ladder 13th · R21 · UTAS 74% win
True form +19.8 advantage Interstate trip
A Line ball
BRL Ladder 4th · R22 · Gabba 55% win
True form +3.9 advantage Interstate trip
H Favourable
COL Ladder 8th · R23 · MCG 79% win
True form +15.0 advantage

Projected 3.8 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Stable · Mixed trend
Form heat Hot
Last 5 record 3-2
Margin Avg margin +10.6
A W
CAR +64 · R18 Overperformed
H L
MEL -35 · R17 Underperformed
H W
GWS +14 · R16 Result
A W
GCS +16 · R15 Result
H L
WBD -6 · R13 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Moderate 72% 8 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Will Day Injured
Karl Amon TBC
Conor Nash TBC
Jack Scrimshaw 3-5 weeks

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +4.8
Lower League avg Stronger
1st power rank
Ladder rank 3rd
True form 16.3
Cool Par Strong
2nd
Record 11-5-1
TFR momentum +3.4
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +12.1
Injury load 9.6 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 72%
Free-kick ladder 14th -0.5
Close games 3-1-1 5 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Sydney
+17 Opp 7th R2 MCG

-2.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v GWS
-27 Opp 9th OR ENGIE Stadium

+3.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.5
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 12.0
Upset win % 0% 2 games · low sample
Win % vs top 8 38% 8 games
Win % vs bottom 10 89% 9 games
Close game win % 60% 5 games
Home win % 78% 9 games
Away win % 50% 8 games
Interstate win % 57% 7 games
Favourite win % 73% 15 games
Underdog win % 0% 2 games · low sample
Fast start rate 59% Led at Q1 in 10 of 17 games
Comeback rate 43% 7 games
Lead held at siren 75% 12 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Hawthorn · After OR lost to GWS 95-122 (-27) · Ladder 8th Hawthorn · After R1 beat Essendon 145-83 (+62) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn · After R2 beat Sydney 99-82 (+17) · Ladder 4th Hawthorn · After R4 beat Geelong 92-91 (+1) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn · After R5 beat Western Bulldogs 104-64 (+40) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R6 beat Port Adelaide 89-86 (+3) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R7 beat Gold Coast 112-63 (+49) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R8 drew with Collingwood 93-93 (+0) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R9 lost to Fremantle 73-88 (-15) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R10 lost to Melbourne 81-120 (-39) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn · After R11 beat Adelaide 75-66 (+9) · Ladder 4th Hawthorn · After R12 beat St Kilda 119-67 (+52) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R13 lost to Western Bulldogs 71-77 (-6) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R15 beat Gold Coast 113-97 (+16) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R16 beat GWS 96-82 (+14) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R17 lost to Melbourne 90-125 (-35) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R18 beat Carlton 103-39 (+64) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn 3rd OR R5 R9 R13 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Will Day Mid · 46th league
92.3
Jai Newcombe Mid
91.4
Connor Macdonald Key fwd
87.2
Jarman Impey Mid
87
Jack Ginnivan Key fwd
86.8
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs CAR, GWS, WBD 8 games 69% +14.1 +2.1
UTAS Stadium vs MEL, ADE, GCS 3 games 67% +7.7 -4.4
Marvel Stadium vs STK, PORT 2 games · low sample 100% +27.5 +15.4
One-off venues
Adelaide Oval vs WBD 1 game · low sample 100% +40.0 +27.9
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +16.0 +3.9
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -15.0 -27.1
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -27.0 -39.1
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Jack Gunston 39 · 3.5 per game
Accuracy Nick Watson 72.2% · 2.6 goals per game · 39 goals, 15 behinds from 54 shots
Goal Assists Jack Ginnivan 19 · 1.1 per game
Marks inside 50 Jack Gunston 46 · 4.2 per game
Marks James Sicily 118 · 7.4 per game
One-Percenters Tom Barrass 88 · 6.8 per game
Disposals Jai Newcombe 448 · 26.4 per game
Clearances Jai Newcombe 133 · 7.8 per game
Contested Possessions Jai Newcombe 221 · 13.0 per game
Tackles Jai Newcombe 65 · 3.8 per game
Clangers Jai Newcombe 68 · 4.0 per game
Free Kicks Against Jai Newcombe 30 · 1.8 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 14th Avg diff -0.5

Favourite umpires

Matthew Young
Matthew Young +16.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.1

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +9.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff +0.2

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic +7.9 pts

47 matches · FK diff +0.3

Least favourite umpires

Justin Power
Justin Power -8.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff -1.9

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -5.1 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.3

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -4.2 pts

30 matches · FK diff +0.4

Show all 33 umpire rows
Matthew Young
Matthew Young +16.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.1

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +9.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff +0.2

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic +7.9 pts

47 matches · FK diff +0.3

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +7.6 pts

42 matches · FK diff -1.0

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +6.9 pts

14 matches · FK diff -1.6

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +6.0 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.6

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +5.7 pts

32 matches · FK diff +0.2

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +5.7 pts

31 matches · FK diff -0.5

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +5.5 pts

28 matches · FK diff -1.3

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +5.5 pts

19 matches · FK diff -1.7

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger +5.1 pts

19 matches · FK diff +1.1

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +4.0 pts

18 matches · FK diff -1.0

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +3.9 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.6

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +3.8 pts

27 matches · FK diff +0.4

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +2.9 pts

38 matches · FK diff -1.1

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +2.2 pts

19 matches · FK diff -0.7

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +2.1 pts

39 matches · FK diff +0.1

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +2.0 pts

42 matches · FK diff -1.0

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +1.6 pts

15 matches · FK diff -2.6

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +1.4 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.3

John Howorth
John Howorth +1.0 pts

17 matches · FK diff -1.6

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +1.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.1

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +0.6 pts

32 matches · FK diff -0.8

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +0.2 pts

17 matches · FK diff -0.3

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -0.4 pts

15 matches · FK diff +0.1

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -1.7 pts

10 matches · FK diff -1.0

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -2.3 pts

36 matches · FK diff +1.2

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -2.6 pts

23 matches · FK diff +1.2

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -3.0 pts

23 matches · FK diff +1.0

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -3.2 pts

17 matches · FK diff -1.4

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -4.2 pts

30 matches · FK diff +0.4

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -5.1 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.3

Justin Power
Justin Power -8.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff -1.9

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
4th projected finish 15.2 wins 11W after 17 played
94% Wildcard round
Top 10
82% Home final
Top 6
57% Double chance
Top 4
16% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

5-10 -22.3 avg margin · 15 games · Usable sample

Hawthorn have gone 5-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.