AFL Insights

2026 season

Hawthorn

15-6-2 MCG
Ladder 4th Current position
Power +6.4 1st in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +2.4
Injuries Minor 2.4 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
BRL
MCG · Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Hawthorn need matchup context

Hawthorn are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (50%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (79%).

Avg next-5 win chance 41%
Rising Tough slate Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Tough slate
Avg opp rank 3.0 Tough slate · 41% avg win prob Toughest Brisbane Lions
H Tough
BRL Ladder 3rd · PF · MCG 41% win · -8 pts
True form -2.5 deficit

Projected 0.4 wins from the next 1.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend
Form heat Building
Last 5 record 3-1-1
Margin Avg margin +8.6
A W
FRE +32 · F1 Overperformed
A W
WCE +62 · R24 Clinical
H D
COL +0 · R23 Underperformed
A L
BRL -67 · R22 Underperformed
H W
NTH +16 · R21 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 89% 4 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Conor Nash Season
Jack Scrimshaw Test
Ned Reeves 1 week
Cody Anderson 1 week

As of 08 Sep 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +6.4
Lower League avg Stronger
1st power rank
Ladder rank 4th
True form 15.8
Cool Par Strong
2nd
Record 15-6-2
TFR momentum +2.4
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +16.5
Injury load 2.4 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 89%
Free-kick ladder 7th +0.3
Close games 3-1-2 6 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Fremantle
+32 Opp 11th F1 Optus Stadium

+45.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v GWS
-27 Opp 13th OR ENGIE Stadium

+3.5 pts vs line

Key insights

Tipping storylines

Record streak
Hawthorn
vs
Brisbane Lions
Thrashed

Brisbane were belted twice by 75+ this year - a hole almost no premier escapes

Brisbane lost by 78 to GWS (R11) and 76 to Carlton (R21) in 2026. Only twice in VFL/AFL history has a side lost two games by 75+ in a season and still won the flag - most recently Hawthorn in 1991.

Sample: 2

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.1
Remaining difficulty Tough run home Avg opp rank 5.0
Upset win % 25% 4 games
Win % vs top 8 50% 10 games
Win % vs bottom 10 79% 14 games
Close game win % 50% 6 games
Home win % 75% 12 games
Away win % 58% 12 games
Interstate win % 64% 11 games
Favourite win % 75% 20 games
Underdog win % 25% 4 games
Fast start rate 58% Led at Q1 in 14 of 24 games
Comeback rate 33% 9 games
Lead held at siren 76% 17 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Hawthorn · After OR lost to GWS 95-122 (-27) · Ladder 8th Hawthorn · After R1 beat Essendon 145-83 (+62) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn · After R2 beat Sydney 99-82 (+17) · Ladder 4th Hawthorn · After R4 beat Geelong 92-91 (+1) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn · After R5 beat Western Bulldogs 104-64 (+40) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R6 beat Port Adelaide 89-86 (+3) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R7 beat Gold Coast 112-63 (+49) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R8 drew with Collingwood 93-93 (+0) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R9 lost to Fremantle 73-88 (-15) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R10 lost to Melbourne 81-120 (-39) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn · After R11 beat Adelaide 75-66 (+9) · Ladder 4th Hawthorn · After R12 beat St Kilda 119-67 (+52) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R13 lost to Western Bulldogs 71-77 (-6) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R15 beat Gold Coast 113-97 (+16) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R16 beat GWS 96-82 (+14) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R17 lost to Melbourne 90-125 (-35) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R18 beat Carlton 103-39 (+64) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R19 beat Richmond 122-52 (+70) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R20 beat Essendon 132-39 (+93) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R21 beat North Melbourne 99-83 (+16) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R22 lost to Brisbane Lions 58-125 (-67) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R23 drew with Collingwood 92-92 (+0) · Ladder 4th Hawthorn · After R24 beat West Coast 107-45 (+62) · Ladder 4th Hawthorn 4th OR R7 R12 R18 R24

Player power

Top 5 players

Jai Newcombe Mid
90.8
Jarman Impey Mid
89.4
James Sicily Mid
85.3
Connor Macdonald Mid
85.2
Will Day Mid
84.8
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs COL, ESS, RIC 11 games 73% +25.1 +8.0
UTAS Stadium vs NTH, MEL, ADE 4 games 75% +9.8 -7.4
Optus Stadium vs FRE, WCE, FRE 3 games 67% +26.3 +9.2
Marvel Stadium vs STK, PORT 2 games · low sample 100% +27.5 +10.4
One-off venues
Adelaide Oval vs WBD 1 game · low sample 100% +40.0 +22.9
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +16.0 -1.1
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -27.0 -44.1
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -67.0 -84.1
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Jack Gunston 61 · 3.4 per game
Accuracy Nick Watson 70.4% · 2.6 goals per game · 57 goals, 24 behinds from 81 shots
Goal Assists Dylan Moore 23 · 1.0 per game
Marks inside 50 Jack Gunston 71 · 3.9 per game
Marks James Sicily 164 · 7.1 per game
One-Percenters Tom Barrass 127 · 6.3 per game
Disposals Jai Newcombe 618 · 25.8 per game
Clearances Jai Newcombe 178 · 7.4 per game
Contested Possessions Jai Newcombe 307 · 12.8 per game
Tackles Cam Mackenzie 94 · 4.3 per game
Clangers Jai Newcombe 104 · 4.3 per game
Free Kicks Against Jai Newcombe 42 · 1.8 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 7th Avg diff +0.3

Favourite umpires

Matthew Young
Matthew Young +16.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.1

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +9.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff +0.2

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +8.0 pts

15 matches · FK diff -1.4

Least favourite umpires

Justin Power
Justin Power -8.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff -1.9

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -5.1 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.3

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -4.2 pts

30 matches · FK diff +0.4

Show all 35 umpire rows
Matthew Young
Matthew Young +16.0 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.1

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +9.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff +0.2

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +8.0 pts

15 matches · FK diff -1.4

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic +7.9 pts

47 matches · FK diff +0.3

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +7.7 pts

44 matches · FK diff -0.9

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +6.0 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.6

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +5.9 pts

29 matches · FK diff -0.9

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +5.7 pts

32 matches · FK diff +0.2

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +5.7 pts

31 matches · FK diff -0.5

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +5.5 pts

19 matches · FK diff -1.7

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +5.0 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.5

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +4.7 pts

14 matches · FK diff +0.3

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch +4.4 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.8

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +4.3 pts

19 matches · FK diff -1.0

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair +4.0 pts

9 matches · FK diff +3.1

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +3.8 pts

27 matches · FK diff +0.4

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +2.1 pts

39 matches · FK diff +0.1

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +2.0 pts

42 matches · FK diff -1.0

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger +1.6 pts

21 matches · FK diff +1.0

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +1.6 pts

15 matches · FK diff -2.6

John Howorth
John Howorth +1.4 pts

18 matches · FK diff -1.6

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +1.4 pts

21 matches · FK diff -0.6

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +1.3 pts

12 matches · FK diff -0.9

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +1.0 pts

40 matches · FK diff -1.0

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -0.4 pts

15 matches · FK diff +0.1

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -0.4 pts

7 matches · FK diff -0.1

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent -0.6 pts

18 matches · FK diff -0.2

Nick Foot
Nick Foot -1.5 pts

34 matches · FK diff -0.6

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -1.9 pts

25 matches · FK diff +1.1

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -2.0 pts

37 matches · FK diff +1.1

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -3.0 pts

23 matches · FK diff +1.0

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -3.2 pts

17 matches · FK diff -1.4

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -4.2 pts

30 matches · FK diff +0.4

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -5.1 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.3

Justin Power
Justin Power -8.0 pts

13 matches · FK diff -1.9

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Top 4 locked
4th projected finish 16.7 wins 16W after 24 played
100% Wildcard round
Top 10
100% Home final
Top 6
100% Double chance
Top 4
0% Top 2
Top 2

Round 24 of 25 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

5-10 -22.3 avg margin · 15 games · Usable sample

Hawthorn have gone 5-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.