AFL Insights

2026 season

Hawthorn

6-3-1 MCG
Ladder 6th Current position
Power +0.0 9th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -2.1
Injuries Minor 2 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
ADE
UTAS Stadium · Thu 21 May, 7:30 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Hawthorn need matchup context

Hawthorn hold up vs top 8 sides (60%) but are mixed against bottom 10 sides (60%).

Avg next-5 win chance 55%
Falling Slightly favourable Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 8.8 Slightly favourable · 55% avg win prob Toughest Gold Coast
H Favourable
ADE Ladder 8th · R11 · UTAS 64% win · +17 pts
Interstate trip
A Line ball
STK Ladder 9th · R12 · Marvel 49% win
True form +6.2 advantage
H Line ball
WBD Ladder 10th · R13 · MCG 53% win
True form +6.7 advantage
A Line ball
GCS Ladder 4th · R15 · Carrara 46% win
True form -2.3 deficit Interstate trip
H Favourable
GWS Ladder 13th · R16 · MCG 64% win
True form +13.2 advantage

Projected 2.8 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 2-2-1
Margin Avg margin -0.4
A L
MEL -39 · R10 Underperformed
A L
FRE -15 · R9 Result
A D
COL +0 · R8 Underperformed
H W
GCS +49 · R7 Overperformed
H W
PORT +3 · R6 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 92% 4 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Mabior Chol 1 week
Will Day 1 week
Tom Barrass 3-5 weeks
James Blanck Test

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +0.0
Lower League avg Stronger
9th power rank
Ladder rank 6th
True form 5.3
Cool Par Strong
7th
Record 6-3-1
TFR momentum -2.1
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +9.1
Injury load 2 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 92%
Free-kick ladder 8th +0.2
Close games 2-0-1 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Sydney
+17 Opp 6th R2 MCG

-2.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v GWS
-27 Opp 15th OR ENGIE Stadium

+3.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.8
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 10.8
Upset win % 0% 2 games · low sample
Win % vs top 8 60% 5 games
Win % vs bottom 10 60% 5 games
Close game win % 67% 3 games
Home win % 100% 5 games
Away win % 20% 5 games
Interstate win % 50% 4 games
Favourite win % 75% 8 games
Underdog win % 0% 2 games · low sample
Fast start rate 50% Led at Q1 in 5 of 10 games
Comeback rate 50% 6 games
Lead held at siren 67% 6 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Hawthorn · After OR lost to GWS 95-122 (-27) · Ladder 8th Hawthorn · After R1 beat Essendon 145-83 (+62) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn · After R2 beat Sydney 99-82 (+17) · Ladder 4th Hawthorn · After R4 beat Geelong 92-91 (+1) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn · After R5 beat Western Bulldogs 104-64 (+40) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R6 beat Port Adelaide 89-86 (+3) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R7 beat Gold Coast 112-63 (+49) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R8 drew with Collingwood 93-93 (+0) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R9 lost to Fremantle 73-88 (-15) · Ladder 3rd Hawthorn · After R10 lost to Melbourne 81-120 (-39) · Ladder 6th Hawthorn 6th OR R1 R2 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Jarman Impey Mid · 42nd league
95.4
Jai Newcombe Mid
91.9
Karl Amon Mid
90.6
James Sicily Mid
90.2
Josh Battle Mid
87.2
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs MEL, COL, GEE 5 games 70% +8.2 -0.9
One-off venues
UTAS Stadium vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +49.0 +39.9
Adelaide Oval vs WBD 1 game · low sample 100% +40.0 +30.9
Marvel Stadium vs PORT 1 game · low sample 100% +3.0 -6.1
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -15.0 -24.1
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -27.0 -36.1
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Jack Gunston 30 · 3.8 per game
Accuracy Nick Watson 72.2% · 2.6 goals per game · 26 goals, 10 behinds from 36 shots
Goal Assists Jack Ginnivan 15 · 1.5 per game
Marks inside 50 Jack Gunston 37 · 4.6 per game
Marks Josh Battle 81 · 8.1 per game
One-Percenters Tom Barrass 56 · 6.2 per game
Disposals Jai Newcombe 262 · 26.2 per game
Clearances Jai Newcombe 74 · 7.4 per game
Contested Possessions Jai Newcombe 122 · 12.2 per game
Tackles Conor Nash 50 · 5.6 per game
Clangers Jai Newcombe 36 · 3.6 per game
Free Kicks Against Jai Newcombe 18 · 1.8 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
7th projected finish 12.8 wins 6W after 10 played
70% Wildcard round
Top 10
40% Home final
Top 6
23% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

5-10 -22.3 avg margin · 15 games · Usable sample

Hawthorn have gone 5-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.