AFL Insights

2026 season

Essendon

2-21 MCG
Ladder 18th Current position
Power -5.7 16th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: -0.1
Injuries — —
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent TBA Fixture not available yet

Tipping insight

Essendon need matchup context

Essendon struggle vs top 8 sides (9%) but have not banked bottom 10 games (8%).

Avg next-5 win chance Pending
Stable Win chances awaiting model Injuries: not modelled

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Pending

Upcoming recommendations are awaiting recompute.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 0-5
Margin Avg margin -55.4
H L
PORT -9 · R24 Near Miss
H L
SYD -36 · R23 Overperformed
A L
GEE -67 · R22 Result
H L
ADE -72 · R21 Underperformed
A L
HAW -93 · R20 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Availability is not available for this club yet.

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -5.7
Lower League avg Stronger
16th power rank
Ladder rank 18th
True form -21.9
Cool Par Strong
17th
Record 2-21
TFR momentum -0.1
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -38.1
Injury load — Lower is healthier
Best side available Not modelled
Free-kick ladder 5th +0.7
Close games 1-4 5 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Melbourne
+45 Opp 7th R5 Adelaide Oval

+72.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Richmond
-18 Opp 18th R11 MCG

-31.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.3
Remaining difficulty Fixture ranks pending Future fixture
Upset win % 9% 22 games
Win % vs top 8 9% 11 games
Win % vs bottom 10 8% 12 games
Close game win % 20% 5 games
Home win % 17% 12 games
Away win % 0% 11 games
Interstate win % 17% 6 games
Favourite win % 0% 1 game · low sample
Underdog win % 9% 22 games
Fast start rate 13% Led at Q1 in 3 of 23 games
Comeback rate 5% 19 games
Lead held at siren 50% 4 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Essendon · After R1 lost to Hawthorn 83-145 (-62) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R2 lost to Port Adelaide 70-133 (-63) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R3 lost to North Melbourne 69-81 (-12) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R4 lost to Western Bulldogs 65-99 (-34) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R5 beat Melbourne 113-68 (+45) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R6 lost to Gold Coast 110-119 (-9) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R7 lost to Collingwood 60-137 (-77) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R8 lost to Brisbane Lions 79-143 (-64) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R9 lost to GWS 89-103 (-14) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R10 lost to Fremantle 61-104 (-43) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R11 lost to Richmond 56-74 (-18) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R12 lost to West Coast 55-85 (-30) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R13 lost to Carlton 67-72 (-5) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R14 lost to Melbourne 50-95 (-45) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R16 lost to North Melbourne 65-79 (-14) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R17 lost to St Kilda 50-117 (-67) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R18 lost to Brisbane Lions 59-149 (-90) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R19 beat GWS 67-64 (+3) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R20 lost to Hawthorn 39-132 (-93) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R21 lost to Adelaide 73-145 (-72) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R22 lost to Geelong 50-117 (-67) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R23 lost to Sydney 76-112 (-36) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R24 lost to Port Adelaide 95-104 (-9) · Ladder 18th Essendon 18th R1 R7 R12 R18 R24

Player power

Top 5 players

Zach Merrett Mid · 14th league
104.5
Archie Roberts Mid · 33rd league
97.4
Will Setterfield Mid · 47th league
93.3
Vigo Visentini Ruck · 48th league
93
Darcy Parish Mid
83.3
Venue performance Ground split
Marvel Stadium vs PORT, ADE, GWS 8 games 12% -33.6 +4.5
MCG vs SYD, HAW, MEL 8 games 0% -47.4 -9.3
Adelaide Oval vs MEL, PORT 2 games · low sample 50% -9.0 +29.1
One-off venues
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -9.0 +29.1
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -14.0 +24.1
Optus Stadium vs WCE 1 game · low sample 0% -30.0 +8.1
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -67.0 -28.9
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -90.0 -51.9
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Nate Caddy 46 · 2.1 per game
Accuracy Sullivan Robey 81.8% · 0.6 goals per game · 9 goals, 2 behinds from 11 shots
Goal Assists Sam Durham 12 · 0.6 per game
Marks inside 50 Nate Caddy 48 · 2.2 per game
Marks Zach Reid 139 · 6.0 per game
One-Percenters Zach Reid 111 · 4.8 per game
Disposals Zach Merrett 629 · 27.3 per game
Clearances Sam Durham 82 · 4.1 per game
Contested Possessions Zach Merrett 183 · 8.0 per game
Tackles Zach Merrett 108 · 4.7 per game
Clangers Sam Durham 78 · 3.9 per game
Free Kicks Against Sam Durham 35 · 1.8 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 5th Avg diff +0.7

Favourite umpires

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +13.9 pts

19 matches · FK diff -1.2

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +8.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.2

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +6.7 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.6

Least favourite umpires

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -12.3 pts

22 matches · FK diff +1.0

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -9.6 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.1

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -8.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.4

Show all 40 umpire rows
Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +13.9 pts

19 matches · FK diff -1.2

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +8.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.2

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +6.7 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.6

Jack Howard
Jack Howard +5.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +4.0

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +4.7 pts

8 matches · FK diff +1.5

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +4.2 pts

35 matches · FK diff +0.3

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +4.1 pts

29 matches · FK diff -1.0

Jordyn Pearson
Jordyn Pearson +3.9 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.8

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +3.4 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.8

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch +2.0 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.8

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis +1.0 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.8

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -0.2 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.8

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -0.4 pts

29 matches · FK diff +1.2

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -0.7 pts

24 matches · FK diff +0.8

Nick Brown
Nick Brown -0.8 pts

22 matches · FK diff +1.3

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -0.9 pts

38 matches · FK diff -1.3

John Howorth
John Howorth -2.0 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.9

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones -2.2 pts

8 matches · FK diff -0.4

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -2.6 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.9

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent -3.6 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.6

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -3.7 pts

20 matches · FK diff -0.7

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -4.1 pts

11 matches · FK diff +2.1

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -4.5 pts

23 matches · FK diff +1.0

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -4.7 pts

13 matches · FK diff -1.5

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair -4.9 pts

8 matches · FK diff +2.2

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -4.9 pts

8 matches · FK diff +3.6

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -5.0 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.5

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -5.3 pts

40 matches · FK diff +0.8

Sam Morgan
Sam Morgan -5.6 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.4

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -6.1 pts

28 matches · FK diff +0.2

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce -6.8 pts

8 matches · FK diff -0.4

Justin Power
Justin Power -6.8 pts

18 matches · FK diff +1.4

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -7.0 pts

37 matches · FK diff -0.2

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -7.2 pts

34 matches · FK diff +1.2

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -7.8 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.4

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -7.8 pts

18 matches · FK diff -1.1

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -7.9 pts

18 matches · FK diff +1.6

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -8.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.4

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -9.6 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.1

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -12.3 pts

22 matches · FK diff +1.0

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals eliminated
18th projected finish 2.0 wins 2W after 23 played
0% Wildcard round
Top 10
0% Home final
Top 6
0% Double chance
Top 4
0% Top 2
Top 2

Round 23 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

2-10 -42.5 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Essendon have gone 2-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.