AFL Insights

2026 season

Essendon

1-9 MCG
Ladder 17th Current position
Power -4.9 17th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -1.7
Injuries Moderate 6.8 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
RIC
MCG · Fri 22 May, 7:40 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Essendon

Essendon struggle vs top 8 sides (20%) but have not banked bottom 10 games (0%).

Avg next-5 win chance 42%
Falling Tough slate Injuries: Moderate

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Tough slate
Avg opp rank 13.2 Tough slate · 42% avg win prob Toughest Melbourne
A Favourable
RIC Ladder 18th · R11 · MCG 80% win · +29 pts
Opp major injury load
A Line ball
WCE Ladder 15th · R12 · Optus 46% win
True form -3.9 deficit Interstate trip
H Tough
CAR Ladder 16th · R13 · MCG 30% win
True form -5.7 deficit
A Tough
MEL Ladder 5th · R14 · MCG 20% win
True form -28.5 deficit
A Tough
NTH Ladder 12th · R16 · Marvel 34% win
True form -12.2 deficit

Projected 2.1 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 0-5
Margin Avg margin -41.4
H L
FRE -43 · R10 Overperformed
A L
GWS -14 · R9 Overperformed
H L
BRL -64 · R8 Underperformed
H L
COL -77 · R7 Underperformed
A L
GCS -9 · R6 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Moderate 78% 11 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Jordan Ridley 2 weeks
Brayden Fiorini TBC
Zak Johnson TBC
Angus Clarke 3 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -4.9
Lower League avg Stronger
17th power rank
Ladder rank 17th
True form -18.9
Cool Par Strong
17th
Record 1-9
TFR momentum -1.7
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -33.3
Injury load 6.8 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 78%
Free-kick ladder 5th +1.5
Close games 0-2 2 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Melbourne
+45 Opp 5th R5 Adelaide Oval

+72.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +1.0
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 10.0
Upset win % 10% 10 games
Win % vs top 8 20% 5 games
Win % vs bottom 10 0% 5 games
Close game win % 0% 2 games · low sample
Home win % 17% 6 games
Away win % 0% 4 games
Interstate win % 25% 4 games
Underdog win % 10% 10 games
Fast start rate 10% Led at Q1 in 1 of 10 games
Comeback rate 12% 8 games
Lead held at siren 50% 2 games · low sample

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Essendon · After R1 lost to Hawthorn 83-145 (-62) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R2 lost to Port Adelaide 70-133 (-63) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R3 lost to North Melbourne 69-81 (-12) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R4 lost to Western Bulldogs 65-99 (-34) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R5 beat Melbourne 113-68 (+45) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R6 lost to Gold Coast 110-119 (-9) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R7 lost to Collingwood 60-137 (-77) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R8 lost to Brisbane Lions 79-143 (-64) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R9 lost to GWS 89-103 (-14) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R10 lost to Fremantle 61-104 (-43) · Ladder 17th Essendon 17th R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Archie Roberts Mid · 6th league
114
Zach Merrett Mid · 18th league
105.3
Will Setterfield Key fwd
85
Darcy Parish Mid
84.2
Jye Caldwell Mid
81
Venue performance Ground split
Marvel Stadium vs BRL, WBD, NTH 3 games 0% -36.7 -3.4
MCG vs FRE, COL, HAW 3 games 0% -60.7 -27.4
Adelaide Oval vs MEL, PORT 2 games · low sample 50% -9.0 +24.3
One-off venues
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -9.0 +24.3
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -14.0 +19.3
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Nate Caddy 19 · 2.1 per game
Accuracy Sullivan Robey 100.0% · 0.8 goals per game · 5 goals, 0 behinds from 5 shots
Goal Assists Darcy Parish 9 · 1.0 per game
Marks inside 50 Nate Caddy 21 · 2.3 per game
Marks Archie Roberts 72 · 7.2 per game
One-Percenters Zach Reid 34 · 3.4 per game
Disposals Archie Roberts 324 · 32.4 per game
Clearances Darcy Parish 45 · 5.0 per game
Contested Possessions Sam Durham 89 · 8.9 per game
Tackles Zach Merrett 50 · 5.0 per game
Clangers Sam Durham 48 · 4.8 per game
Free Kicks Against Sam Durham 21 · 2.1 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
17th projected finish 6.0 wins 1W after 10 played
20% Wildcard round
Top 10
11% Home final
Top 6
7% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Western Bulldogs

2-10 -41.2 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Essendon have gone 2-10 against Western Bulldogs across the last 10 seasons.