AFL Insights

2026 season

Essendon

1-16 MCG
Ladder 18th Current position
Power -6.0 17th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: -0.2
Injuries Minor 5.7 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
GWS
Marvel Stadium · Sun 19 Jul, 4:40 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Essendon need matchup context

Essendon struggle vs top 8 sides (12%) but have not banked bottom 10 games (0%).

Avg next-5 win chance 17%
Stable Very tough run Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Very tough run
Avg opp rank 6.0 Very tough run · 17% avg win prob Toughest Hawthorn
H Tough
GWS Ladder 11th · R19 · Marvel 21% win · -34 pts
True form -18.2 deficit Opp major injury load
A Tough
HAW Ladder 3rd · R20 · MCG 12% win
True form -36.2 deficit
H Tough
ADE Ladder 5th · R21 · Marvel 18% win
True form -32.2 deficit
A Tough
GEE Ladder 9th · R22 · Kardinia 15% win
True form -24.3 deficit Our own injury load
H Tough
SYD Ladder 2nd · R23 · MCG 21% win
True form -33.7 deficit

Projected 0.9 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 0-5
Margin Avg margin -44.2
A L
BRL -90 · R18 Underperformed
H L
STK -67 · R17 Underperformed
A L
NTH -14 · R16 Result
A L
MEL -45 · R14 Underperformed
H L
CAR -5 · R13 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 88% 6 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Brayden Fiorini Season
Nic Martin Season
Tom Edwards 2 weeks
Archie May Season

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -6.0
Lower League avg Stronger
17th power rank
Ladder rank 18th
True form -19.9
Cool Par Strong
18th
Record 1-16
TFR momentum -0.2
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -35.4
Injury load 5.7 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 88%
Free-kick ladder 12th -0.4
Close games 0-3 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Melbourne
+45 Opp 5th R5 Adelaide Oval

+72.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Richmond
-18 Opp 15th R11 MCG

-31.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.1
Remaining difficulty Tough run home Avg opp rank 5.7
Upset win % 6% 16 games
Win % vs top 8 12% 8 games
Win % vs bottom 10 0% 9 games
Close game win % 0% 3 games
Home win % 12% 8 games
Away win % 0% 9 games
Interstate win % 17% 6 games
Favourite win % 0% 1 game · low sample
Underdog win % 6% 16 games
Fast start rate 12% Led at Q1 in 2 of 17 games
Comeback rate 7% 14 games
Lead held at siren 50% 2 games · low sample

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

Rounds 1-18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Essendon · After R1 lost to Hawthorn 83-145 (-62) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R2 lost to Port Adelaide 70-133 (-63) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R3 lost to North Melbourne 69-81 (-12) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R4 lost to Western Bulldogs 65-99 (-34) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R5 beat Melbourne 113-68 (+45) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R6 lost to Gold Coast 110-119 (-9) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R7 lost to Collingwood 60-137 (-77) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R8 lost to Brisbane Lions 79-143 (-64) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R9 lost to GWS 89-103 (-14) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R10 lost to Fremantle 61-104 (-43) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R11 lost to Richmond 56-74 (-18) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R12 lost to West Coast 55-85 (-30) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R13 lost to Carlton 67-72 (-5) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R14 lost to Melbourne 50-95 (-45) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R16 lost to North Melbourne 65-79 (-14) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R17 lost to St Kilda 50-117 (-67) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R18 lost to Brisbane Lions 59-149 (-90) · Ladder 18th Essendon 18th R1 R5 R9 R13 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Zach Merrett Mid · 10th league
106.5
Archie Roberts Mid · 21st league
102.7
Will Setterfield Mid
87.5
Darcy Parish Mid
83.3
Sam Durham Mid
79.6
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs MEL, CAR, RIC 6 games 0% -41.7 -6.3
Marvel Stadium vs STK, NTH, BRL 5 games 0% -38.2 -2.8
Adelaide Oval vs MEL, PORT 2 games · low sample 50% -9.0 +26.4
One-off venues
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -9.0 +26.4
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -14.0 +21.4
Optus Stadium vs WCE 1 game · low sample 0% -30.0 +5.4
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -90.0 -54.6
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Nate Caddy 32 · 2.0 per game
Accuracy Sam Durham 81.8% · 0.6 goals per game · 9 goals, 2 behinds from 11 shots
Goal Assists Nate Caddy 11 · 0.7 per game
Marks inside 50 Nate Caddy 35 · 2.2 per game
Marks Jacob Farrow 101 · 6.7 per game
One-Percenters Zach Reid 77 · 4.5 per game
Disposals Zach Merrett 459 · 27.0 per game
Clearances Darcy Parish 74 · 5.3 per game
Contested Possessions Sam Durham 142 · 8.9 per game
Tackles Zach Merrett 82 · 4.8 per game
Clangers Sam Durham 63 · 3.9 per game
Free Kicks Against Lachlan Blakiston 31 · 1.9 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 12th Avg diff -0.4

Favourite umpires

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +13.9 pts

19 matches · FK diff -1.2

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +8.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.2

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +6.7 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.6

Least favourite umpires

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -12.3 pts

22 matches · FK diff +1.0

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -9.6 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.1

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -8.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.4

Show all 36 umpire rows
Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +13.9 pts

19 matches · FK diff -1.2

Jordan Fry
Jordan Fry +8.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.2

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +6.7 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.6

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +4.7 pts

8 matches · FK diff +1.5

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +4.2 pts

35 matches · FK diff +0.3

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +4.1 pts

29 matches · FK diff -1.0

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +3.4 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.8

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +0.5 pts

20 matches · FK diff +1.8

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +0.3 pts

23 matches · FK diff +0.6

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -0.2 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.8

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis -0.8 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -0.9 pts

38 matches · FK diff -1.3

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -1.1 pts

28 matches · FK diff +0.9

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones -1.9 pts

7 matches · FK diff +0.3

John Howorth
John Howorth -2.0 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.9

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair -3.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.8

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce -3.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.2

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent -3.6 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.6

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson -3.7 pts

20 matches · FK diff -0.7

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -3.8 pts

31 matches · FK diff +1.6

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -4.1 pts

11 matches · FK diff +2.1

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -4.5 pts

23 matches · FK diff +1.0

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -4.7 pts

13 matches · FK diff -1.5

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -4.9 pts

8 matches · FK diff +3.6

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -5.0 pts

11 matches · FK diff -0.5

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -5.4 pts

39 matches · FK diff +0.7

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -6.1 pts

28 matches · FK diff +0.2

Justin Power
Justin Power -6.8 pts

18 matches · FK diff +1.4

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -7.0 pts

37 matches · FK diff -0.2

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -7.2 pts

34 matches · FK diff +1.2

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer -7.8 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.4

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -7.8 pts

18 matches · FK diff -1.1

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -7.9 pts

18 matches · FK diff +1.6

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson -8.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.4

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -9.6 pts

16 matches · FK diff +0.1

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -12.3 pts

22 matches · FK diff +1.0

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
18th projected finish 2.5 wins 1W after 17 played
8% Wildcard round
Top 10
5% Home final
Top 6
3% Double chance
Top 4
2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Western Bulldogs

2-10 -41.2 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Essendon have gone 2-10 against Western Bulldogs across the last 10 seasons.