AFL Insights
Hayden Meyer

Umpire profile

Hayden Meyer

No. 14 Heritage 439 Active Last officiated 9 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

34.8%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 112 · Baseline 28.6% · +6.2 pts

Victorian bias

+1.4 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 89 · Free-kick diff +1.7

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Fremantle
17 +7.9 pts -0.1
2
Brisbane Lions
32 +7.0 pts +0.1
3
Geelong
32 +6.8 pts +1.0
4
Sydney
28 +5.8 pts -2.1
5
West Coast
13 +5.6 pts +1.2
6
Collingwood
33 +3.1 pts +0.3
7
Adelaide
21 +2.9 pts +1.0
8
Richmond
22 +2.3 pts -2.3
9
Melbourne
31 +2.2 pts +0.4
10
Carlton
22 +1.9 pts +0.5
11
Western Bulldogs
33 +1.1 pts +2.5
12
North Melbourne
13 -1.8 pts +2.5
13
Hawthorn
23 -2.6 pts +1.2
14
Gold Coast
21 -5.4 pts -2.2
15
Essendon
26 -7.8 pts +0.4
16
GWS
22 -10.1 pts -0.6
17
Port Adelaide
20 -11.4 pts -4.2
18
St Kilda
23 -12.4 pts -0.2

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Melbourne 7.14 56 def. by Fremantle 14.10 94 87

Round 11 · 28 May 2022 · MCG

4.50 odds · 82% favourite · 38-pt win · 27.5-pt dog

Geelong 6.15 51 def. by Brisbane Lions 14.8 92 81

Round 15 · 20 Jun 2025 · Kardinia Park

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 41-pt win · 18.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 7.12 54 def. by Geelong 20.18 138 81

Finals Week 1 · 5 Sep 2024 · Adelaide Oval

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 84-pt win · 16.5-pt dog

Melbourne 18.12 120 def. Hawthorn 12.9 81 80

Round 10 · 16 May 2026 · MCG

3.12 odds · 73% favourite · 39-pt win · 20.5-pt dog

Adelaide 16.16 112 def. Port Adelaide 9.11 65 78

Round 20 · 29 Jul 2023 · Adelaide Oval

2.75 odds · 68% favourite · 47-pt win · 13.5-pt dog