Andrew Adair

Umpire profile

Andrew Adair

No. 36 Heritage 455 Active Last officiated 12 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

28.1%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 64 · Baseline 28.6% · -0.4 pts

Victorian bias

-1.9 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 20 · Free-kick diff +2.3

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Melbourne
11 +4.8 pts +3.2
2
Fremantle
4 +3.9 pts +0.2
3
GWS
3 +3.8 pts +1.3
4
St Kilda
9 +3.7 pts +1.8
5
Adelaide
8 +3.3 pts +0.9
6
Port Adelaide
4 +2.9 pts -5.2
7
Gold Coast
12 +2.1 pts -1.6
8
North Melbourne
11 +2.0 pts -1.1
9
Sydney
10 +1.8 pts +0.0
10
Richmond
15 +1.0 pts -0.3
11
Hawthorn
7 +1.0 pts +2.1
12
Carlton
5 -2.0 pts -0.2
13
Essendon
6 -3.1 pts +2.8
14
West Coast
11 -4.4 pts -4.6
15
Collingwood
3 -4.8 pts -0.7
16
Geelong
1 -6.3 pts +3.0
17
Western Bulldogs
2 -6.8 pts -3.5
18
Brisbane Lions
8 -9.4 pts +2.5

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Richmond 12.8 80 def. Gold Coast 9.15 69 90

Round 6 · 19 Apr 2025 · Marvel Stadium

9.00 odds · 93% favourite · 11-pt win · 43.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 13.17 95 def. Geelong 10.5 65 83

Round 7 · 25 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 30-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 15.6 96 def. Brisbane Lions 7.13 55 81

Round 20 · 29 Jul 2023 · Carrara

3.35 odds · 74% favourite · 41-pt win · 17.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 19.11 125 def. Melbourne 9.12 66 81

Round 2 · 23 Mar 2025 · Marvel Stadium

3.10 odds · 71% favourite · 59-pt win · 16.5-pt dog

Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 def. by Melbourne 14.15 99 79

Round 10 · 18 May 2025 · Gabba

5.75 odds · 88% favourite · 11-pt win · 33.5-pt dog