Andrew Adair

Umpire profile

Andrew Adair

No. 36 Heritage 455 Active Last officiated 22 Aug 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

26.1%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 69 · Baseline 28.3% · -2.2 pts

Victorian bias

-1.3 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 21 · Free-kick diff +2.0

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
GWS
4 +5.2 pts -0.8
2
Melbourne
11 +4.8 pts +3.2
3
Hawthorn
9 +4.0 pts +3.1
4
Fremantle
4 +3.9 pts +0.2
5
St Kilda
9 +3.7 pts +1.8
6
Adelaide
8 +3.3 pts +0.9
7
Port Adelaide
4 +2.9 pts -5.2
8
Gold Coast
12 +2.1 pts -1.6
9
North Melbourne
11 +2.0 pts -1.1
10
Sydney
10 +1.8 pts +0.0
11
Richmond
18 +1.2 pts -0.6
12
Carlton
5 -2.0 pts -0.2
13
Collingwood
3 -4.8 pts -0.7
14
Essendon
8 -4.9 pts +2.2
15
West Coast
13 -5.7 pts -3.2
16
Geelong
3 -6.2 pts -3.0
17
Western Bulldogs
2 -6.8 pts -3.5
18
Brisbane Lions
8 -9.4 pts +2.5

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Richmond 12.8 80 def. Gold Coast 9.15 69 90

Round 6 · 19 Apr 2025 · Marvel Stadium

9.00 odds · 93% favourite · 11-pt win · 43.5-pt dog

Port Adelaide 13.17 95 def. Geelong 10.5 65 83

Round 7 · 25 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 30-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 15.6 96 def. Brisbane Lions 7.13 55 81

Round 20 · 29 Jul 2023 · Carrara

3.35 odds · 74% favourite · 41-pt win · 17.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 19.11 125 def. Melbourne 9.12 66 81

Round 2 · 23 Mar 2025 · Marvel Stadium

3.10 odds · 71% favourite · 59-pt win · 16.5-pt dog

Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 def. by Melbourne 14.15 99 79

Round 10 · 18 May 2025 · Gabba

5.75 odds · 88% favourite · 11-pt win · 33.5-pt dog