Tom Bryce

Umpire profile

Tom Bryce

No. 24 Heritage 451 Active Last officiated 12 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

19.6%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 46 · Baseline 28.6% · -9.0 pts

Victorian bias

-7.2 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 10 · Free-kick diff -1.5

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Adelaide
4 +8.6 pts -3.2
2
North Melbourne
13 +8.0 pts -0.9
3
Melbourne
7 +4.2 pts -1.1
4
Sydney
3 +3.7 pts +3.3
5
Gold Coast
8 +3.3 pts +2.8
6
Carlton
5 +2.7 pts +0.2
7
Hawthorn
3 +2.5 pts +1.7
8
Fremantle
4 +0.8 pts +1.2
9
West Coast
14 +0.1 pts -1.0
10
Richmond
9 -2.4 pts -2.2
11
Essendon
6 -3.1 pts -1.2
12
Port Adelaide
5 -3.5 pts -1.2
13
Western Bulldogs
2 -4.0 pts +2.0
14
Collingwood
2 -4.4 pts +5.5
15
GWS
5 -5.1 pts -4.6
16
Brisbane Lions
5 -7.7 pts +5.2
17
St Kilda
5 -9.2 pts +3.8
18
Geelong

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Gold Coast 9.9 63 def. by Melbourne 18.9 117 81

Round 23 · 17 Aug 2024 · Carrara

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 54-pt win · 15.5-pt dog

West Coast 13.10 88 def. GWS 10.11 71 78

Round 10 · 17 May 2026 · Optus Stadium

4.45 odds · 83% favourite · 17-pt win · 30.5-pt dog

West Coast 16.13 109 def. Richmond 10.10 70 74

Round 5 · 14 Apr 2024 · Optus Stadium

2.90 odds · 69% favourite · 39-pt win · 13.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 17.11 113 def. Port Adelaide 9.13 67 73

Round 1 · 15 Mar 2026 · Marvel Stadium

2.43 odds · 64% favourite · 46-pt win · 10.5-pt dog

St Kilda 12.6 78 def. by Hawthorn 12.16 88 70

Round 11 · 27 May 2023 · Marvel Stadium

4.25 odds · 81% favourite · 10-pt win · 26.5-pt dog