AFL Insights
Tom Bryce

Umpire profile

Tom Bryce

No. 24 Heritage 451 Active Last officiated 23 Aug 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

19.2%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 52 · Baseline 28.3% · -9.1 pts

Victorian bias

-8.4 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 11 · Free-kick diff -0.9

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Sydney
5 +10.6 pts +2.8
2
Adelaide
5 +10.3 pts -3.6
3
Melbourne
8 +7.0 pts +0.5
4
North Melbourne
14 +5.5 pts -1.2
5
Hawthorn
4 +5.0 pts +1.5
6
Gold Coast
8 +3.3 pts +2.8
7
Carlton
5 +2.7 pts +0.2
8
West Coast
14 +0.1 pts -1.0
9
Fremantle
5 -0.7 pts +0.2
10
Richmond
9 -2.4 pts -2.2
11
Western Bulldogs
2 -4.0 pts +2.0
12
Collingwood
2 -4.4 pts +5.5
13
GWS
5 -5.1 pts -4.6
14
Essendon
8 -6.8 pts -0.4
15
Brisbane Lions
5 -7.7 pts +5.2
16
Port Adelaide
8 -8.1 pts -1.6
17
St Kilda
5 -9.2 pts +3.8
18
Geelong
— — —

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Gold Coast 9.9 63 def. by Melbourne 18.9 117 81

Round 23 · 17 Aug 2024 · Carrara

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 54-pt win · 15.5-pt dog

West Coast 13.10 88 def. GWS 10.11 71 78

Round 10 · 17 May 2026 · Optus Stadium

4.45 odds · 83% favourite · 17-pt win · 30.5-pt dog

West Coast 16.13 109 def. Richmond 10.10 70 74

Round 5 · 14 Apr 2024 · Optus Stadium

2.90 odds · 69% favourite · 39-pt win · 13.5-pt dog

North Melbourne 17.11 113 def. Port Adelaide 9.13 67 73

Round 1 · 15 Mar 2026 · Marvel Stadium

2.43 odds · 64% favourite · 46-pt win · 10.5-pt dog

Sydney 17.21 123 def. North Melbourne 10.10 70 73

Round 24 · 23 Aug 2026 · SCG

2.23 odds · 60% favourite · 53-pt win · 6.5-pt dog