Nicholas McGinness

Umpire profile

Nicholas McGinness

No. 42 Heritage 454 Active Last officiated 11 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

25.0%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 72 · Baseline 28.6% · -3.6 pts

Victorian bias

-7.9 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 23 · Free-kick diff +1.9

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Adelaide
10 +10.1 pts -0.4
2
Brisbane Lions
8 +8.5 pts +3.4
3
Fremantle
7 +4.2 pts +4.9
4
Western Bulldogs
6 +4.1 pts +2.7
5
Carlton
9 +3.9 pts +3.1
6
Port Adelaide
4 +2.7 pts -1.2
7
St Kilda
10 +1.0 pts -1.2
8
West Coast
13 +0.5 pts -6.0
9
Hawthorn
15 -0.4 pts +0.1
10
Melbourne
4 -0.4 pts +5.0
11
Sydney
7 -0.9 pts -0.9
12
Gold Coast
9 -2.9 pts -1.7
13
Collingwood
2 -3.3 pts +7.0
14
Geelong
5 -4.3 pts +3.4
15
GWS
11 -4.7 pts -0.1
16
Essendon
8 -4.9 pts +3.6
17
North Melbourne
14 -5.3 pts -2.8
18
Richmond
10 -6.3 pts -2.6

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

GWS 8.13 61 def. by Fremantle 13.17 95 79

Round 10 · 17 May 2025 · ENGIE Stadium

3.50 odds · 75% favourite · 34-pt win · 19.5-pt dog

Fremantle 10.12 72 def. by North Melbourne 11.7 73 74

Round 2 · 25 Mar 2023 · Optus Stadium

6.50 odds · 88% favourite · 1-pt win · 34.5-pt dog

West Coast 16.13 109 def. Richmond 10.10 70 74

Round 5 · 14 Apr 2024 · Optus Stadium

2.90 odds · 69% favourite · 39-pt win · 13.5-pt dog

St Kilda 17.6 108 def. Essendon 8.7 55 74

Round 20 · 27 Jul 2024 · Marvel Stadium

2.30 odds · 61% favourite · 53-pt win · 6.5-pt dog

Adelaide 12.12 84 def. Carlton 8.7 55 71

Round 20 · 30 Jul 2022 · Adelaide Oval

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 29-pt win · 15.5-pt dog