AFL Insights
Craig Fleer

Umpire profile

Craig Fleer

No. 26 Heritage 426 Active Last officiated 11 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

37.5%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 96 · Baseline 28.6% · +8.9 pts

Victorian bias

+4.4 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 102 · Free-kick diff -0.5

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Essendon
19 +13.9 pts -1.2
2
GWS
29 +5.4 pts -1.0
3
Hawthorn
27 +3.8 pts +0.4
4
Port Adelaide
38 +2.8 pts +0.4
5
Geelong
30 +2.4 pts -1.3
6
Collingwood
26 +1.9 pts +1.3
7
Sydney
25 +1.7 pts -3.2
8
Richmond
32 +1.6 pts -2.4
9
Western Bulldogs
27 +1.4 pts +0.5
10
West Coast
25 +0.8 pts +1.8
11
Adelaide
46 -0.4 pts +2.4
12
Melbourne
26 -0.6 pts -0.3
13
Brisbane Lions
43 -1.3 pts +0.3
14
North Melbourne
23 -2.2 pts +0.9
15
Carlton
29 -5.3 pts +0.2
16
Gold Coast
18 -8.4 pts -0.9
17
Fremantle
20 -8.8 pts -0.5
18
St Kilda
31 -9.0 pts +0.3

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Geelong 6.15 51 def. by Brisbane Lions 14.8 92 81

Round 15 · 20 Jun 2025 · Kardinia Park

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 41-pt win · 18.5-pt dog

Adelaide 16.16 112 def. Port Adelaide 9.11 65 78

Round 20 · 29 Jul 2023 · Adelaide Oval

2.75 odds · 68% favourite · 47-pt win · 13.5-pt dog

GWS 26.10 166 def. Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 78

Round 11 · 24 May 2026 · ENGIE Stadium

2.71 odds · 68% favourite · 78-pt win · 14.5-pt dog

Adelaide 12.12 84 def. Carlton 8.7 55 71

Round 20 · 30 Jul 2022 · Adelaide Oval

3.20 odds · 72% favourite · 29-pt win · 15.5-pt dog

Melbourne 9.7 61 def. by Sydney 10.13 73 69

Round 12 · 4 Jun 2022 · MCG

4.20 odds · 81% favourite · 12-pt win · 23.5-pt dog