AFL Insights
Craig Fleer

Umpire profile

Craig Fleer

No. 26 Heritage 426 Active Last officiated 11 Sep 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

37.1%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 105 · Baseline 28.3% · +8.8 pts

Victorian bias

+5.1 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 104 · Free-kick diff -0.5

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Essendon
19 +13.9 pts -1.2
2
Sydney
27 +5.0 pts -2.6
3
Hawthorn
27 +3.8 pts +0.4
4
GWS
31 +3.3 pts -1.2
5
Geelong
31 +2.3 pts -1.3
6
Collingwood
27 +2.2 pts +1.5
7
Port Adelaide
39 +1.7 pts +0.1
8
Richmond
32 +1.6 pts -2.4
9
West Coast
25 +0.8 pts +1.8
10
Western Bulldogs
28 +0.3 pts +0.6
11
Melbourne
28 +0.3 pts -0.2
12
Adelaide
47 +0.1 pts +2.4
13
North Melbourne
24 -0.9 pts +0.7
14
Carlton
32 -2.4 pts +0.4
15
Brisbane Lions
45 -4.5 pts +0.1
16
Fremantle
21 -8.3 pts -0.4
17
Gold Coast
18 -8.4 pts -0.9
18
St Kilda
31 -9.0 pts +0.3

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Sydney 21.15 141 def. Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 85

Finals Week 1 · 5 Sep 2026 · SCG

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 53-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

Carlton 24.10 154 def. Brisbane Lions 11.12 78 85

Round 21 · 1 Aug 2026 · Marvel Stadium

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 76-pt win · 24.5-pt dog

Geelong 6.15 51 def. by Brisbane Lions 14.8 92 81

Round 15 · 20 Jun 2025 · Kardinia Park

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 41-pt win · 18.5-pt dog

Adelaide 16.16 112 def. Port Adelaide 9.11 65 78

Round 20 · 29 Jul 2023 · Adelaide Oval

2.75 odds · 68% favourite · 47-pt win · 13.5-pt dog

GWS 26.10 166 def. Brisbane Lions 13.10 88 78

Round 11 · 24 May 2026 · ENGIE Stadium

2.71 odds · 68% favourite · 78-pt win · 14.5-pt dog