Nathan Toner

Umpire profile

Nathan Toner

No. 25 Heritage 450 Active Last officiated 22 Aug 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

25.0%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 100 · Baseline 28.3% · -3.3 pts

Victorian bias

-2.2 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 45 · Free-kick diff +1.0

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
GWS
13 +8.5 pts -2.0
2
Port Adelaide
8 +6.1 pts -1.5
3
Adelaide
20 +5.6 pts -2.0
4
Western Bulldogs
13 +5.0 pts +1.1
5
St Kilda
13 +4.7 pts -0.3
6
Carlton
13 +4.5 pts +1.3
7
Sydney
14 +4.5 pts +3.3
8
Melbourne
13 +3.6 pts +3.4
9
Gold Coast
15 +2.1 pts -1.4
10
Richmond
7 -1.2 pts +1.1
11
Geelong
7 -1.2 pts +2.1
12
Brisbane Lions
8 -1.5 pts +0.4
13
Fremantle
10 -1.9 pts +0.6
14
Hawthorn
17 -3.2 pts -1.4
15
Collingwood
11 -5.4 pts +0.1
16
Essendon
16 -9.6 pts +0.1
17
West Coast
12 -10.1 pts -1.3
18
North Melbourne
12 -12.4 pts -1.2

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Hawthorn 16.9 105 def. Collingwood 11.7 73 89

Round 21 · 5 Aug 2023 · MCG

5.60 odds · 86% favourite · 32-pt win · 32.5-pt dog

Geelong 10.14 74 def. by GWS 12.9 81 86

Round 11 · 27 May 2023 · Kardinia Park

9.00 odds · 93% favourite · 7-pt win · 42.5-pt dog

Carlton 24.10 154 def. Brisbane Lions 11.12 78 85

Round 21 · 1 Aug 2026 · Marvel Stadium

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 76-pt win · 24.5-pt dog

Sydney 8.13 61 def. by Gold Coast 10.15 75 82

Round 8 · 7 May 2022 · SCG

5.60 odds · 86% favourite · 14-pt win · 34.5-pt dog

Brisbane Lions 19.13 127 def. Adelaide 11.9 75 81

Round 7 · 26 Apr 2026 · Gabba

3.14 odds · 73% favourite · 52-pt win · 19.5-pt dog