AFL Insights
Nathan Toner

Umpire profile

Nathan Toner

No. 25 Heritage 450 Active Last officiated 11 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

25.3%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 95 · Baseline 28.6% · -3.3 pts

Victorian bias

-4.4 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 43 · Free-kick diff +0.9

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
GWS
12 +10.3 pts -2.1
2
Port Adelaide
8 +6.1 pts -1.5
3
Brisbane Lions
7 +4.9 pts +0.7
4
Adelaide
19 +4.8 pts -2.2
5
St Kilda
13 +4.7 pts -0.3
6
Sydney
14 +4.5 pts +3.3
7
Western Bulldogs
12 +4.0 pts +1.8
8
Melbourne
12 +3.9 pts +3.3
9
Gold Coast
15 +2.1 pts -1.4
10
Carlton
11 +1.1 pts +0.6
11
Richmond
7 -1.2 pts +1.1
12
Geelong
7 -1.2 pts +2.1
13
Fremantle
9 -3.2 pts -0.9
14
Hawthorn
17 -3.2 pts -1.4
15
Collingwood
10 -6.3 pts -0.4
16
West Coast
10 -9.4 pts +0.3
17
Essendon
16 -9.6 pts +0.1
18
North Melbourne
11 -13.1 pts -0.9

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Hawthorn 16.9 105 def. Collingwood 11.7 73 89

Round 21 · 5 Aug 2023 · MCG

5.60 odds · 86% favourite · 32-pt win · 32.5-pt dog

Geelong 10.14 74 def. by GWS 12.9 81 86

Round 11 · 27 May 2023 · Kardinia Park

9.00 odds · 93% favourite · 7-pt win · 42.5-pt dog

Sydney 8.13 61 def. by Gold Coast 10.15 75 82

Round 8 · 7 May 2022 · SCG

5.60 odds · 86% favourite · 14-pt win · 34.5-pt dog

Brisbane Lions 19.13 127 def. Adelaide 11.9 75 81

Round 7 · 26 Apr 2026 · Gabba

3.14 odds · 73% favourite · 52-pt win · 19.5-pt dog

St Kilda 14.10 94 def. Fremantle 5.3 33 78

Round 8 · 2 May 2025 · Marvel Stadium

2.68 odds · 67% favourite · 61-pt win · 10.5-pt dog