AFL Insights

2026 season

Geelong

9-8 GMHBA Stadium
Ladder 9th Current position
Power +2.8 3rd in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: -0.7
Injuries Major 12 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
STK
Kardinia Park · Thu 16 Jul, 7:30 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Geelong need matchup context

Geelong hold up vs top 8 sides (60%) but have not banked bottom 10 games (43%).

Avg next-5 win chance 67%
Stable Favourable run Injuries: Major

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Favourable run
Avg opp rank 11.0 Favourable run · 67% avg win prob Toughest Melbourne
H Favourable
STK Ladder 10th · R19 · Kardinia 70% win · +16 pts
True form +6.9 advantage Our own injury load
A Line ball
MEL Ladder 6th · R20 · MCG 48% win
True form -7.8 deficit
A Favourable
COL Ladder 8th · R21 · MCG 68% win
True form +3.1 advantage
H Favourable
ESS Ladder 18th · R22 · Kardinia 85% win
True form +24.3 advantage Opp moderate injury load
A Favourable
NTH Ladder 13th · R23 · Marvel 61% win
True form +7.9 advantage Our own injury load

Projected 3.3 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 1-4
Margin Avg margin +0.0
A L
GWS -13 · R18 Underperformed
H L
BRL -22 · R17 Underperformed
A L
FRE -9 · R15 Near Miss
H W
GCS +45 · R14 Overperformed
A L
ADE -1 · R13 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Major 83% 5 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Toby Conway TBC
Jeremy Cameron 4-6 weeks
Tanner Bruhn Injured
Rhys Stanley Test

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +2.8
Lower League avg Stronger
3rd power rank
Ladder rank 9th
True form 4.4
Cool Par Strong
7th
Record 9-8
TFR momentum -0.7
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +12.9
Injury load 12 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 83%
Free-kick ladder 2nd +2.3
Close games 2-4 6 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Fremantle
+10 Opp 2nd R1 Kardinia Park

-4.5 pts vs line

Key insights

Tipping storylines

Record streak
Geelong
↓

Geelong were the AFL's great comeback team for 15 years — that trait has quietly vanished since 2023

Across 2006-2026 Geelong have the best record in the league at winning from behind at three-quarter-time (24.4% of such games, vs a league baseline near 14%) AND the best at protecting a 3QT lead (92.0%). But the comeback half of that has collapsed recently. Their win rate when trailing at the last change ran 28.9% (2006-12), 25.0% (2013-18) and 28.6% (2019-22) — then fell to just 15.4% across 2023-26 (6 wins from 39 such games). Their lead-protection has stayed elite throughout (92.3% in 2023-26), so the modern Cats still close out games ruthlessly but no longer storm home from behind.

Sample: 489 Geelong completed matches, 2006-2026; recent era 2023-26 = 39 games trailing at 3QT

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Above-average draw SoS +1.1
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 11.8
Upset win % 25% 4 games
Win % vs top 8 60% 10 games
Win % vs bottom 10 43% 7 games
Close game win % 33% 6 games
Home win % 89% 9 games
Away win % 12% 8 games
Interstate win % 29% 7 games
Favourite win % 62% 13 games
Underdog win % 25% 4 games
Fast start rate 59% Led at Q1 in 10 of 17 games
Comeback rate 20% 5 games
Lead held at siren 89% 9 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Geelong · After OR lost to Gold Coast 69-125 (-56) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R1 beat Fremantle 110-100 (+10) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R3 beat Adelaide 68-60 (+8) · Ladder 10th Geelong · After R4 lost to Hawthorn 91-92 (-1) · Ladder 11th Geelong · After R5 beat West Coast 122-76 (+46) · Ladder 8th Geelong · After R6 beat Western Bulldogs 131-56 (+75) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R7 lost to Port Adelaide 65-95 (-30) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R8 beat North Melbourne 135-86 (+49) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R9 beat Collingwood 122-68 (+54) · Ladder 5th Geelong · After R10 beat Brisbane Lions 117-76 (+41) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R11 beat Sydney 107-80 (+27) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R12 lost to Carlton 84-88 (-4) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R13 lost to Adelaide 74-75 (-1) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R14 beat Gold Coast 105-60 (+45) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R15 lost to Fremantle 90-99 (-9) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R17 lost to Brisbane Lions 101-123 (-22) · Ladder 7th Geelong · After R18 lost to GWS 73-86 (-13) · Ladder 9th Geelong 9th OR R5 R9 R13 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Bailey Smith Mid · 3rd league
119.7
Max Holmes Mid · 13th league
106
Gryan Miers Mid
86.4
Lawson Humphries Mid
82.8
Tanner Bruhn Mid
81.5
Venue performance Ground split
Kardinia Park vs BRL, GCS, SYD 7 games 86% +27.4 +14.5
MCG vs CAR, COL, HAW 3 games 33% +16.3 +3.5
Adelaide Oval vs ADE, PORT 2 games · low sample 0% -15.5 -28.4
One-off venues
Norwood Oval vs WCE 1 game · low sample 100% +46.0 +33.1
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 100% +41.0 +28.1
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -9.0 -21.9
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -13.0 -25.9
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -56.0 -68.9
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Jeremy Cameron 39 · 2.4 per game
Accuracy Oliver Dempsey 69.0% · 1.2 goals per game · 20 goals, 9 behinds from 29 shots
Goal Assists Bailey Smith 17 · 1.1 per game
Marks inside 50 Jeremy Cameron 38 · 2.4 per game
Marks Connor OSullivan 116 · 6.8 per game
One-Percenters Connor OSullivan 100 · 5.9 per game
Disposals Bailey Smith 515 · 32.2 per game
Clearances Bailey Smith 91 · 5.7 per game
Contested Possessions Bailey Smith 188 · 11.8 per game
Tackles Tom Atkins 104 · 6.1 per game
Clangers Bailey Smith 67 · 4.2 per game
Free Kicks Against Tom Atkins 23 · 1.4 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 2nd Avg diff +2.3

Favourite umpires

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +13.5 pts

13 matches · FK diff +0.7

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +8.9 pts

33 matches · FK diff +1.4

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +7.9 pts

21 matches · FK diff +0.9

Least favourite umpires

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -9.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -7.3 pts

9 matches · FK diff -1.3

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -5.7 pts

44 matches · FK diff +0.9

Show all 31 umpire rows
Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +13.5 pts

13 matches · FK diff +0.7

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +8.9 pts

33 matches · FK diff +1.4

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +7.9 pts

21 matches · FK diff +0.9

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +7.6 pts

13 matches · FK diff +0.2

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +6.9 pts

59 matches · FK diff +0.2

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +6.8 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.0

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +6.2 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.9

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic +6.0 pts

53 matches · FK diff +0.0

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +5.3 pts

31 matches · FK diff -1.0

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +4.3 pts

15 matches · FK diff -0.7

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +3.8 pts

20 matches · FK diff +1.7

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy +3.7 pts

15 matches · FK diff +1.7

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +2.4 pts

8 matches · FK diff +1.1

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +2.4 pts

30 matches · FK diff -1.3

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +2.2 pts

53 matches · FK diff +0.8

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +1.9 pts

40 matches · FK diff +0.6

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +1.0 pts

34 matches · FK diff -0.5

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -0.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.2

Justin Power
Justin Power -0.2 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.2

John Howorth
John Howorth -0.4 pts

28 matches · FK diff -0.4

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -0.9 pts

28 matches · FK diff -1.6

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -1.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.1

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -2.4 pts

12 matches · FK diff -2.8

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini -2.8 pts

8 matches · FK diff -1.8

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -2.8 pts

55 matches · FK diff +0.1

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -3.8 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.7

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -4.3 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.4

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -4.8 pts

21 matches · FK diff +1.1

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -5.7 pts

44 matches · FK diff +0.9

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -7.3 pts

9 matches · FK diff -1.3

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -9.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
8th projected finish 12.8 wins 9W after 17 played
83% Wildcard round
Top 10
29% Home final
Top 6
8% Double chance
Top 4
2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

GWS

4-8-1 +6.5 avg margin · 13 games · Usable sample

Geelong have gone 4-8-1 against GWS across the last 10 seasons.