AFL Insights

2026 season

Geelong

7-3 GMHBA Stadium
Ladder 3rd Current position
Power +6.6 1st in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +3.0
Injuries Minor 2.9 pts
Confidence High High tipping confidence
Next opponent
SYD
Kardinia Park · Sat 23 May, 4:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Geelong profile is tip-friendly

Geelong hold up vs top 8 sides (60%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (80%).

Avg next-5 win chance 68%
Rising Favourable run Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Favourable run
Avg opp rank 6.2 Favourable run · 68% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle
H Favourable
SYD Ladder 1st · R11 · Kardinia 66% win · +1 pts
Opp major injury load
A Favourable
CAR Ladder 16th · R12 · MCG 74% win
True form +27.3 advantage
A Favourable
ADE Ladder 8th · R13 · Adel Oval 65% win
True form +8.5 advantage Interstate trip
H Favourable
GCS Ladder 4th · R14 · Kardinia 78% win
True form +6.5 advantage
A Line ball
FRE Ladder 2nd · R15 · Optus 57% win
True form -1.8 deficit Interstate trip

Projected 3.4 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Red hot
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +37.8
A W
BRL +41 · R10 Overperformed
H W
COL +54 · R9 Overperformed
H W
NTH +49 · R8 Overperformed
A L
PORT -30 · R7 Underperformed
H W
WBD +75 · R6 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 98% 6 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Toby Conway TBC
Jhye Clark TBC
Harley Barker Indefinite
Jacob Molier Test

As of 12 May 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +6.6
Lower League avg Stronger
1st power rank
Ladder rank 3rd
True form 14.2
Cool Par Strong
2nd
Record 7-3
TFR momentum +3.0
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +19.6
Injury load 2.9 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 98%
Free-kick ladder 1st +3.9
Close games 2-1 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Fremantle
+10 Opp 2nd R1 Kardinia Park

-4.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.4
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.4
Upset win % 33% 3 games
Win % vs top 8 60% 5 games
Win % vs bottom 10 80% 5 games
Close game win % 67% 3 games
Home win % 100% 6 games
Away win % 25% 4 games
Interstate win % 50% 4 games
Favourite win % 86% 7 games
Underdog win % 33% 3 games
Fast start rate 60% Led at Q1 in 6 of 10 games
Comeback rate 33% 3 games
Lead held at siren 100% 6 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Geelong · After OR lost to Gold Coast 69-125 (-56) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R1 beat Fremantle 110-100 (+10) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R3 beat Adelaide 68-60 (+8) · Ladder 10th Geelong · After R4 lost to Hawthorn 91-92 (-1) · Ladder 11th Geelong · After R5 beat West Coast 122-76 (+46) · Ladder 8th Geelong · After R6 beat Western Bulldogs 131-56 (+75) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R7 lost to Port Adelaide 65-95 (-30) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R8 beat North Melbourne 135-86 (+49) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R9 beat Collingwood 122-68 (+54) · Ladder 5th Geelong · After R10 beat Brisbane Lions 117-76 (+41) · Ladder 3rd Geelong 3rd OR R1 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Bailey Smith Mid · 1st league
122.2
Max Holmes Mid · 14th league
106.7
Jeremy Cameron Key fwd · 50th league
93.2
Tanner Bruhn Mid
89.7
Gryan Miers Mid
88
Venue performance Ground split
Kardinia Park vs NTH, WBD, ADE 4 games 100% +35.5 +15.9
MCG vs COL, HAW 2 games · low sample 50% +26.5 +6.9
One-off venues
Norwood Oval vs WCE 1 game · low sample 100% +46.0 +26.4
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 100% +41.0 +21.4
Adelaide Oval vs PORT 1 game · low sample 0% -30.0 -49.6
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -56.0 -75.6
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Jeremy Cameron 27 · 3.0 per game
Accuracy Shaun Mannagh 78.3% · 1.8 goals per game · 18 goals, 5 behinds from 23 shots
Goal Assists Bailey Smith 12 · 1.2 per game
Marks inside 50 Jeremy Cameron 28 · 3.1 per game
Marks Jeremy Cameron 66 · 7.3 per game
One-Percenters Connor OSullivan 53 · 5.3 per game
Disposals Bailey Smith 324 · 32.4 per game
Clearances Bailey Smith 57 · 5.7 per game
Contested Possessions Bailey Smith 116 · 11.6 per game
Tackles Tom Atkins 67 · 6.7 per game
Clangers Max Holmes 38 · 3.8 per game
Free Kicks Against Mitchell Edwards 15 · 1.9 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
3rd projected finish 15.4 wins 7W after 10 played
84% Wildcard round
Top 10
68% Home final
Top 6
53% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

GWS

4-7-1 +8.1 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Geelong have gone 4-7-1 against GWS across the last 10 seasons.