AFL Insights

2026 season

Geelong

15-8 GMHBA Stadium
Ladder 5th Current position
Power +4.1 3rd in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -1.4
Injuries — —
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent TBA Fixture not available yet

Tipping insight

Use caution with Geelong

Geelong are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (55%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (71%).

Avg next-5 win chance Pending
Falling Win chances awaiting model Injuries: not modelled

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Pending

Upcoming recommendations are awaiting recompute.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Red hot
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +31.6
A L
FRE -14 · SF Result
H W
CAR +33 · F1 Overperformed
H W
RIC +57 · R24 Underperformed
A W
NTH +15 · R23 Result
H W
ESS +67 · R22 Clinical

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Availability is not available for this club yet.

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +4.1
Lower League avg Stronger
3rd power rank
Ladder rank 5th
True form 13.8
Cool Par Strong
5th
Record 15-8
TFR momentum -1.4
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +18.7
Injury load — Lower is healthier
Best side available Not modelled
Free-kick ladder 10th +0.2
Close games 2-4 6 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Sydney
+27 Opp 2nd R11 Kardinia Park

+16.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.2
Remaining difficulty Fixture ranks pending Future fixture
Upset win % 20% 5 games
Win % vs top 8 55% 11 games
Win % vs bottom 10 71% 14 games
Close game win % 33% 6 games
Home win % 92% 13 games
Away win % 33% 12 games
Interstate win % 25% 8 games
Favourite win % 75% 20 games
Underdog win % 20% 5 games
Fast start rate 56% Led at Q1 in 14 of 25 games
Comeback rate 29% 7 games
Lead held at siren 93% 15 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Geelong · After OR lost to Gold Coast 69-125 (-56) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R1 beat Fremantle 110-100 (+10) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R3 beat Adelaide 68-60 (+8) · Ladder 10th Geelong · After R4 lost to Hawthorn 91-92 (-1) · Ladder 11th Geelong · After R5 beat West Coast 122-76 (+46) · Ladder 8th Geelong · After R6 beat Western Bulldogs 131-56 (+75) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R7 lost to Port Adelaide 65-95 (-30) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R8 beat North Melbourne 135-86 (+49) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R9 beat Collingwood 122-68 (+54) · Ladder 5th Geelong · After R10 beat Brisbane Lions 117-76 (+41) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R11 beat Sydney 107-80 (+27) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R12 lost to Carlton 84-88 (-4) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R13 lost to Adelaide 74-75 (-1) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R14 beat Gold Coast 105-60 (+45) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R15 lost to Fremantle 90-99 (-9) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R17 lost to Brisbane Lions 101-123 (-22) · Ladder 7th Geelong · After R18 lost to GWS 73-86 (-13) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R19 beat St Kilda 102-75 (+27) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R20 beat Melbourne 117-97 (+20) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R21 beat Collingwood 97-72 (+25) · Ladder 7th Geelong · After R22 beat Essendon 117-50 (+67) · Ladder 7th Geelong · After R23 beat North Melbourne 125-110 (+15) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R24 beat Richmond 133-76 (+57) · Ladder 5th Geelong 5th OR R7 R12 R18 R24

Player power

Top 5 players

Bailey Smith Mid · 1st league
118.8
Max Holmes Mid · 30th league
98.6
James Worpel Mid
83
Tanner Bruhn Mid
82.1
Lawson Humphries Mid
81.7
Venue performance Ground split
Kardinia Park vs RIC, ESS, STK 10 games 90% +34.3 +16.3
MCG vs CAR, COL, MEL 6 games 67% +21.2 +3.2
Optus Stadium vs FRE, FRE 2 games · low sample 0% -11.5 -29.5
Adelaide Oval vs ADE, PORT 2 games · low sample 0% -15.5 -33.5
One-off venues
Norwood Oval vs WCE 1 game · low sample 100% +46.0 +28.0
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 100% +41.0 +23.0
Marvel Stadium vs NTH 1 game · low sample 100% +15.0 -3.0
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -13.0 -31.0
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -56.0 -74.0
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Shannon Neale 52 · 2.1 per game
Accuracy Oliver Henry 67.6% · 2.0 goals per game · 48 goals, 23 behinds from 71 shots
Goal Assists Shaun Mannagh 25 · 1.0 per game
Marks inside 50 Shannon Neale 57 · 2.3 per game
Marks Connor OSullivan 165 · 6.6 per game
One-Percenters Connor OSullivan 134 · 5.4 per game
Disposals Bailey Smith 774 · 32.2 per game
Clearances Bailey Smith 129 · 5.4 per game
Contested Possessions Bailey Smith 264 · 11.0 per game
Tackles Tom Atkins 148 · 5.9 per game
Clangers Bailey Smith 97 · 4.0 per game
Free Kicks Against Shannon Neale 35 · 1.4 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 10th Avg diff +0.2

Favourite umpires

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +12.7 pts

14 matches · FK diff +0.6

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +9.2 pts

34 matches · FK diff +1.1

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +7.9 pts

21 matches · FK diff +0.9

Least favourite umpires

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -9.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -7.3 pts

9 matches · FK diff -1.3

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -5.7 pts

44 matches · FK diff +0.9

Show all 32 umpire rows
Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +12.7 pts

14 matches · FK diff +0.6

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +9.2 pts

34 matches · FK diff +1.1

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +7.9 pts

21 matches · FK diff +0.9

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +7.6 pts

13 matches · FK diff +0.2

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +7.1 pts

62 matches · FK diff -0.2

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +7.0 pts

33 matches · FK diff +0.7

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +6.2 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.9

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic +6.0 pts

53 matches · FK diff +0.0

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +5.8 pts

33 matches · FK diff -1.4

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +4.9 pts

22 matches · FK diff +1.4

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +4.3 pts

15 matches · FK diff -0.7

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy +3.7 pts

15 matches · FK diff +1.7

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +2.6 pts

55 matches · FK diff +0.5

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +2.4 pts

8 matches · FK diff +1.1

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +2.3 pts

31 matches · FK diff -1.3

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking +2.2 pts

44 matches · FK diff +0.2

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch +2.1 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.8

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +1.4 pts

36 matches · FK diff -0.4

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -0.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.2

Justin Power
Justin Power -0.2 pts

25 matches · FK diff +0.2

John Howorth
John Howorth -0.4 pts

28 matches · FK diff -0.4

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -0.6 pts

14 matches · FK diff -1.9

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -0.9 pts

28 matches · FK diff -1.6

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -1.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff +2.1

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -2.5 pts

56 matches · FK diff +0.1

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini -2.8 pts

8 matches · FK diff -1.8

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -3.8 pts

11 matches · FK diff +1.5

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness -4.3 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.4

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -4.9 pts

23 matches · FK diff +0.5

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -5.7 pts

44 matches · FK diff +0.9

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -7.3 pts

9 matches · FK diff -1.3

Matthew Young
Matthew Young -9.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Home final locked
5th projected finish 16.0 wins 16W after 25 played
100% Wildcard round
Top 10
100% Home final
Top 6
0% Double chance
Top 4
0% Top 2
Top 2

Round 25 of 25 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

GWS

4-8-1 +6.5 avg margin · 13 games · Usable sample

Geelong have gone 4-8-1 against GWS across the last 10 seasons.