AFL Insights

2026 season

Carlton

2-8 MCG
Ladder 16th Current position
Power +0.4 7th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: +0.8
Injuries Minor 0 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
PORT
Adelaide Oval · Sat 23 May, 7:05 PM ACST

Tipping insight

Carlton need matchup context

Carlton struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but have not banked bottom 10 games (40%).

Avg next-5 win chance 54%
Stable Slightly favourable Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 12.4 Slightly favourable · 54% avg win prob Toughest Geelong
A Tough
PORT Ladder 14th · R11 · Adel Oval 41% win · -5 pts
True form -4.0 deficit Interstate trip
H Tough
GEE Ladder 3rd · R12 · MCG 26% win
True form -27.3 deficit
A Favourable
ESS Ladder 17th · R13 · MCG 70% win
True form +5.7 advantage
A Line ball
GWS Ladder 13th · R15 · ENGIE 60% win
True form -5.2 deficit Interstate trip
H Favourable
WCE Ladder 15th · R16 · Marvel 74% win
True form +1.9 advantage

Projected 2.7 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Cooling
Last 5 record 1-4
Margin Avg margin -11.4
H W
WBD +12 · R10 Overperformed
A L
BRL -11 · R9 Overperformed
H L
STK -39 · R8 Underperformed
A L
FRE -14 · R7 Overperformed
H L
COL -5 · R6 Near Miss

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 98% 4 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Harry O'Farrell TBC
Jesse Motlop Season
Lucas Camporeale TBC
Rob Monahan Season

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +0.4
Lower League avg Stronger
7th power rank
Ladder rank 16th
True form -13.2
Cool Par Strong
15th
Record 2-8
TFR momentum +0.8
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -17.7
Injury load 0 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 98%
Free-kick ladder 15th -2.0
Close games 2-3 5 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.8
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 10.4
Upset win % 12% 8 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 5 games
Win % vs bottom 10 40% 5 games
Close game win % 40% 5 games
Home win % 40% 5 games
Away win % 0% 5 games
Interstate win % 0% 4 games
Favourite win % 50% 2 games · low sample
Underdog win % 12% 8 games
Fast start rate 50% Led at Q1 in 5 of 10 games
Comeback rate 25% 4 games
Lead held at siren 25% 4 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Carlton · After OR lost to Sydney 69-132 (-63) · Ladder 10th Carlton · After R1 beat Richmond 75-71 (+4) · Ladder 11th Carlton · After R3 lost to Melbourne 77-100 (-23) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R4 lost to North Melbourne 86-96 (-10) · Ladder 15th Carlton · After R5 lost to Adelaide 86-114 (-28) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R6 lost to Collingwood 83-88 (-5) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R7 lost to Fremantle 89-103 (-14) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R8 lost to St Kilda 69-108 (-39) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R9 lost to Brisbane Lions 89-100 (-11) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R10 beat Western Bulldogs 74-62 (+12) · Ladder 16th Carlton 16th OR R1 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Sam Walsh Mid · 24th league
100.9
Patrick Cripps Mid
91.8
Nic Newman Mid
91
Oliver Florent Mid
85.3
Adam Cerra Mid
81
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs COL, MEL, RIC 3 games 33% -8.0 +9.7
Marvel Stadium vs WBD, STK, NTH 3 games 33% -12.3 +5.4
One-off venues
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -11.0 +6.7
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -14.0 +3.7
Adelaide Oval vs ADE 1 game · low sample 0% -28.0 -10.3
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -63.0 -45.3
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Mitch McGovern 19 · 1.9 per game
Accuracy Marc Pittonet 85.7% · 0.7 goals per game · 6 goals, 1 behinds from 7 shots
Goal Assists Oliver Hollands 7 · 0.8 per game
Marks inside 50 Brodie Kemp 24 · 2.4 per game
Marks Jacob Weitering 56 · 6.2 per game
One-Percenters Jacob Weitering 73 · 8.1 per game
Disposals Sam Walsh 279 · 27.9 per game
Clearances Patrick Cripps 71 · 7.1 per game
Contested Possessions Patrick Cripps 149 · 14.9 per game
Tackles Patrick Cripps 51 · 5.1 per game
Clangers Patrick Cripps 54 · 5.4 per game
Free Kicks Against Patrick Cripps 24 · 2.4 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
14th projected finish 8.7 wins 2W after 10 played
30% Wildcard round
Top 10
12% Home final
Top 6
8% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Adelaide

3-9 -23.1 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Carlton have gone 3-9 against Adelaide across the last 10 seasons.