AFL Insights

2026 season

Carlton

8-9 MCG
Ladder 12th Current position
Power -6.1 18th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -6.6
Injuries Minor 5.2 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
COL
MCG · Sat 18 Jul, 7:35 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Carlton

Carlton struggle vs top 8 sides (12%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (78%).

Avg next-5 win chance 32%
Falling Very tough run Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Very tough run
Avg opp rank 8.6 Very tough run · 32% avg win prob Toughest Brisbane Lions
A Line ball
COL Ladder 8th · R19 · MCG 46% win · -4 pts
True form -10.5 deficit Opp moderate injury load
H Tough
GCS Ladder 14th · R20 · Marvel 42% win
True form +1.6 advantage
H Tough
BRL Ladder 4th · R21 · Marvel 18% win
True form -21.6 deficit
A Tough
STK Ladder 10th · R22 · Marvel 23% win
True form -6.6 deficit
A Tough
WBD Ladder 7th · R23 · Marvel 31% win
True form -11.9 deficit

Projected 1.6 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Stable · Mixed trend
Form heat Cold
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +3.8
H L
HAW -64 · R18 Underperformed
A W
RIC +2 · R17 Underperformed
H W
WCE +53 · R16 Overperformed
A W
GWS +23 · R15 Overperformed
A W
ESS +5 · R13 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 88% 7 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Marc Pittonet 1 week
Matt Carroll Season
Jacob Weitering 4-5 weeks
Jesse Motlop Season

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Worsening — more players out

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -6.1
Lower League avg Stronger
18th power rank
Ladder rank 12th
True form -9.1
Cool Par Strong
13th
Record 8-9
TFR momentum -6.6
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -7.1
Injury load 5.2 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 88%
Free-kick ladder 16th -0.8
Close games 5-3 8 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Geelong
+4 Opp 3rd R12 MCG

+29.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.4
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.8
Upset win % 33% 12 games
Win % vs top 8 12% 8 games
Win % vs bottom 10 78% 9 games
Close game win % 62% 8 games
Home win % 50% 8 games
Away win % 44% 9 games
Interstate win % 33% 6 games
Favourite win % 80% 5 games
Underdog win % 33% 12 games
Fast start rate 41% Led at Q1 in 7 of 17 games
Comeback rate 43% 7 games
Lead held at siren 67% 9 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Carlton · After OR lost to Sydney 69-132 (-63) · Ladder 10th Carlton · After R1 beat Richmond 75-71 (+4) · Ladder 11th Carlton · After R3 lost to Melbourne 77-100 (-23) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R4 lost to North Melbourne 86-96 (-10) · Ladder 15th Carlton · After R5 lost to Adelaide 86-114 (-28) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R6 lost to Collingwood 83-88 (-5) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R7 lost to Fremantle 89-103 (-14) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R8 lost to St Kilda 69-108 (-39) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R9 lost to Brisbane Lions 89-100 (-11) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R10 beat Western Bulldogs 74-62 (+12) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R11 beat Port Adelaide 92-58 (+34) · Ladder 15th Carlton · After R12 beat Geelong 88-84 (+4) · Ladder 14th Carlton · After R13 beat Essendon 72-67 (+5) · Ladder 13th Carlton · After R15 beat GWS 88-65 (+23) · Ladder 14th Carlton · After R16 beat West Coast 117-64 (+53) · Ladder 12th Carlton · After R17 beat Richmond 74-72 (+2) · Ladder 10th Carlton · After R18 lost to Hawthorn 39-103 (-64) · Ladder 12th Carlton 12th OR R5 R9 R13 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Sam Walsh Mid · 26th league
100.3
Nic Newman Mid · 38th league
95.3
Patrick Cripps Mid · 41st league
94.8
Blake Acres Mid
89.8
George Hewett Mid
86.2
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs HAW, RIC, ESS 7 games 57% -11.0 -3.9
Marvel Stadium vs WCE, WBD, STK 4 games 50% +4.0 +11.1
Adelaide Oval vs PORT, ADE 2 games · low sample 50% +3.0 +10.1
One-off venues
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 100% +23.0 +30.1
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -11.0 -3.9
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -14.0 -6.9
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -63.0 -55.9
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Mitch McGovern 26 · 1.5 per game
Accuracy Elijah Hollands 83.3% · 0.8 goals per game · 5 goals, 1 behinds from 6 shots
Goal Assists Ben Ainsworth 11 · 0.6 per game
Marks inside 50 Brodie Kemp 37 · 2.2 per game
Marks Nic Newman 100 · 7.1 per game
One-Percenters Jacob Weitering 76 · 7.6 per game
Disposals Sam Walsh 485 · 28.5 per game
Clearances Patrick Cripps 119 · 7.0 per game
Contested Possessions Patrick Cripps 251 · 14.8 per game
Tackles Patrick Cripps 86 · 5.1 per game
Clangers Patrick Cripps 95 · 5.6 per game
Free Kicks Against Patrick Cripps 42 · 2.5 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 16th Avg diff -0.8

Favourite umpires

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +10.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.6

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +5.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch +4.7 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.0

Least favourite umpires

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -13.9 pts

31 matches · FK diff +1.4

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -11.4 pts

11 matches · FK diff -1.0

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -8.0 pts

41 matches · FK diff +1.6

Show all 34 umpire rows
Nick Brown
Nick Brown +10.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.6

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +5.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch +4.7 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.0

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +4.4 pts

15 matches · FK diff +1.7

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +4.0 pts

9 matches · FK diff +0.2

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +4.0 pts

32 matches · FK diff +2.1

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness +3.9 pts

9 matches · FK diff +3.1

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +3.8 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +5.0

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +2.7 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.2

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +2.6 pts

36 matches · FK diff +2.0

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +1.9 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.5

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +1.6 pts

11 matches · FK diff +3.7

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +1.1 pts

11 matches · FK diff +0.6

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +1.1 pts

18 matches · FK diff -0.4

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +1.0 pts

28 matches · FK diff +1.4

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +0.4 pts

21 matches · FK diff -0.3

John Howorth
John Howorth +0.0 pts

20 matches · FK diff +0.0

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -0.2 pts

38 matches · FK diff +2.2

Justin Power
Justin Power -0.2 pts

19 matches · FK diff +1.6

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -0.3 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.3

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -1.2 pts

15 matches · FK diff -1.2

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -1.5 pts

42 matches · FK diff +0.9

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair -2.0 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.2

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -2.2 pts

18 matches · FK diff -0.4

Nick Foot
Nick Foot -2.7 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.9

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -3.8 pts

11 matches · FK diff +1.4

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -5.3 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.2

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -6.7 pts

24 matches · FK diff +0.8

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -6.8 pts

21 matches · FK diff +1.3

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -7.6 pts

37 matches · FK diff +0.5

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -7.7 pts

26 matches · FK diff -1.3

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -8.0 pts

41 matches · FK diff +1.6

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -11.4 pts

11 matches · FK diff -1.0

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -13.9 pts

31 matches · FK diff +1.4

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals unlikely
13th projected finish 9.9 wins 8W after 17 played
22% Wildcard round
Top 10
5% Home final
Top 6
3% Double chance
Top 4
2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Adelaide

3-9 -23.1 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Carlton have gone 3-9 against Adelaide across the last 10 seasons.