AFL Insights

2026 season

Carlton

12-10-1 MCG
Ladder 10th Current position
Power +4.0 4th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: -0.8
Injuries — —
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent TBA Fixture not available yet

Tipping insight

Carlton need matchup context

Carlton are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (38%) but are mixed against bottom 10 sides (67%).

Avg next-5 win chance Pending
Stable Win chances awaiting model Injuries: not modelled

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Pending

Upcoming recommendations are awaiting recompute.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Stable · Mixed trend
Form heat Hot
Last 5 record 3-1-1
Margin Avg margin +13.4
A L
GEE -33 · F1 Underperformed
A W
MEL +19 · F1 Overperformed
H W
FRE +37 · R24 Overperformed
A D
WBD +0 · R23 Underperformed
A W
STK +44 · R22 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Availability is not available for this club yet.

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +4.0
Lower League avg Stronger
4th power rank
Ladder rank 10th
True form 5.6
Cool Par Strong
9th
Record 12-10-1
TFR momentum -0.8
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +1.3
Injury load — Lower is healthier
Best side available Not modelled
Free-kick ladder 9th +0.2
Close games 5-3-1 9 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Fremantle
+37 Opp 11th R24 Marvel Stadium

+44.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.2
Remaining difficulty Fixture ranks pending Future fixture
Upset win % 38% 16 games
Win % vs top 8 38% 13 games
Win % vs bottom 10 67% 12 games
Close game win % 56% 9 games
Home win % 64% 11 games
Away win % 43% 14 games
Interstate win % 33% 6 games
Favourite win % 78% 9 games
Underdog win % 38% 16 games
Fast start rate 48% Led at Q1 in 12 of 25 games
Comeback rate 40% 10 games
Lead held at siren 73% 15 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Carlton · After OR lost to Sydney 69-132 (-63) · Ladder 10th Carlton · After R1 beat Richmond 75-71 (+4) · Ladder 11th Carlton · After R3 lost to Melbourne 77-100 (-23) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R4 lost to North Melbourne 86-96 (-10) · Ladder 15th Carlton · After R5 lost to Adelaide 86-114 (-28) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R6 lost to Collingwood 83-88 (-5) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R7 lost to Fremantle 89-103 (-14) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R8 lost to St Kilda 69-108 (-39) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R9 lost to Brisbane Lions 89-100 (-11) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R10 beat Western Bulldogs 74-62 (+12) · Ladder 16th Carlton · After R11 beat Port Adelaide 92-58 (+34) · Ladder 15th Carlton · After R12 beat Geelong 88-84 (+4) · Ladder 14th Carlton · After R13 beat Essendon 72-67 (+5) · Ladder 13th Carlton · After R15 beat GWS 88-65 (+23) · Ladder 14th Carlton · After R16 beat West Coast 117-64 (+53) · Ladder 12th Carlton · After R17 beat Richmond 74-72 (+2) · Ladder 10th Carlton · After R18 lost to Hawthorn 39-103 (-64) · Ladder 12th Carlton · After R19 lost to Collingwood 69-90 (-21) · Ladder 12th Carlton · After R20 beat Gold Coast 110-97 (+13) · Ladder 11th Carlton · After R21 beat Brisbane Lions 154-78 (+76) · Ladder 10th Carlton · After R22 beat St Kilda 106-62 (+44) · Ladder 10th Carlton · After R23 drew with Western Bulldogs 82-82 (+0) · Ladder 10th Carlton · After R24 beat Fremantle 119-82 (+37) · Ladder 10th Carlton 10th OR R7 R12 R18 R24

Player power

Top 5 players

Sam Walsh Mid · 19th league
102.1
Patrick Cripps Mid · 40th league
94.8
George Hewett Mid
91.5
Nic Newman Mid
89.6
Oliver Florent Mid
85
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs GEE, MEL, COL 10 games 50% -11.2 -11.8
Marvel Stadium vs FRE, WBD, STK 9 games 72% +20.7 +20.1
Adelaide Oval vs PORT, ADE 2 games · low sample 50% +3.0 +2.4
One-off venues
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 100% +23.0 +22.4
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -11.0 -11.6
Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -14.0 -14.6
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -63.0 -63.6
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Brodie Kemp 39 · 1.6 per game
Accuracy Matt Carroll 81.8% · 0.9 goals per game · 9 goals, 2 behinds from 11 shots
Goal Assists Francis Evans 19 · 0.8 per game
Marks inside 50 Brodie Kemp 60 · 2.4 per game
Marks Nick Haynes 149 · 7.8 per game
One-Percenters Harry Dean 117 · 5.3 per game
Disposals Sam Walsh 727 · 29.1 per game
Clearances Patrick Cripps 188 · 7.5 per game
Contested Possessions Patrick Cripps 360 · 14.4 per game
Tackles Patrick Cripps 122 · 4.9 per game
Clangers Patrick Cripps 125 · 5.0 per game
Free Kicks Against Patrick Cripps 53 · 2.1 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 9th Avg diff +0.2

Favourite umpires

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +10.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.6

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness +6.1 pts

10 matches · FK diff +2.6

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +5.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Least favourite umpires

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -13.1 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.7

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -10.5 pts

12 matches · FK diff +0.0

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -8.2 pts

42 matches · FK diff +1.5

Show all 34 umpire rows
Nick Brown
Nick Brown +10.8 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.6

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness +6.1 pts

10 matches · FK diff +2.6

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones +5.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.0

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +4.9 pts

23 matches · FK diff -0.3

Harrison Birch
Harrison Birch +4.7 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.0

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +4.5 pts

13 matches · FK diff +1.3

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +4.4 pts

15 matches · FK diff +1.7

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini +4.0 pts

9 matches · FK diff +0.2

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +4.0 pts

32 matches · FK diff +2.1

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +3.6 pts

31 matches · FK diff +1.8

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +2.9 pts

16 matches · FK diff -1.0

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce +2.7 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.2

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +2.6 pts

36 matches · FK diff +2.0

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +2.5 pts

14 matches · FK diff +4.7

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +2.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff +6.3

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +1.4 pts

23 matches · FK diff +0.1

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +1.2 pts

21 matches · FK diff -0.6

John Howorth
John Howorth +0.0 pts

20 matches · FK diff +0.0

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -0.2 pts

38 matches · FK diff +2.2

Justin Power
Justin Power -0.2 pts

19 matches · FK diff +1.6

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls -0.3 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.3

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -0.5 pts

19 matches · FK diff -0.5

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -0.6 pts

43 matches · FK diff +1.0

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair -2.0 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.2

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -2.4 pts

32 matches · FK diff +0.4

Nick Foot
Nick Foot -3.5 pts

34 matches · FK diff +1.5

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -4.7 pts

12 matches · FK diff +0.9

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -6.7 pts

24 matches · FK diff +0.8

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -6.8 pts

21 matches · FK diff +1.3

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy -7.3 pts

27 matches · FK diff -0.8

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -7.4 pts

39 matches · FK diff +1.0

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -8.2 pts

42 matches · FK diff +1.5

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna -10.5 pts

12 matches · FK diff +0.0

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -13.1 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.7

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Finals locked
9th projected finish 13.0 wins 13W after 25 played
100% Wildcard round
Top 10
0% Home final
Top 6
0% Double chance
Top 4
0% Top 2
Top 2

Round 25 of 25 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Adelaide

3-9 -23.1 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

Carlton have gone 3-9 against Adelaide across the last 10 seasons.