2026 Western Bulldogs club intelligence

2026 season

Western Bulldogs

10-7 Mars Stadium

Ladder 7th Current position

Power -2.2 14th in league

True form Falling TFR momentum: -2.0

Injuries Major 10.9 pts

Confidence Low Low tipping confidence

Next opponent

GCS

Carrara · Sun 19 Jul, 3:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (50%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (71%).

Avg next-5 win chance 47%

Falling Evenly-contested slate Injuries: Major

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Evenly-contested slate

Avg opp rank 11.4 Evenly-contested slate · 47% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle

A Tough

GCS Ladder 14th · R19 · Carrara 45% win · -10 pts

True form +13.5 advantage Our own injury load

H Line ball

RIC Ladder 17th · R20 · Marvel 54% win

True form +19.3 advantage

A Tough

FRE Ladder 1st · R21 · Optus 21% win

True form -13.6 deficit Interstate trip

H Tough

NTH Ladder 13th · R22 · Marvel 44% win

True form +6.3 advantage

H Favourable

CAR Ladder 12th · R23 · Marvel 69% win

True form +11.9 advantage

Projected 2.3 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend

Form heat Building

Last 5 record 3-2

Margin Avg margin -9.6

H W

WCE +16 · R18 Underperformed

A L

SYD -35 · R17 Underperformed

A W

STK +22 · R15 Overperformed

H L

ADE -57 · R14 Underperformed

A W

HAW +6 · R13 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Major 87% 4 listed injuries

Clear Manageable Major

Sam Darcy Season

Connor Budarick 5-7 weeks

Bailey Dale 5-7 weeks

Laith Vandermeer Test

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Worsening — more players out

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -2.2

Lower League avg Stronger

14th power rank

Ladder rank 7th

True form 2.8

Cool Par Strong

8th

Record 10-7

TFR momentum -2.0

Declining Stable Rising

Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)

Avg margin -6.9

Injury load 10.9 pts

Clear Manageable Major

Lower is healthier

Best side available 87%

Free-kick ladder 6th +0.6

Close games 6-2 8 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Hawthorn

+6 Opp 1st R13 MCG

+18.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Carlton

-12 Opp 18th R10 Marvel Stadium

-20.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.3

Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 11.2

Upset win % 44% 9 games

Win % vs top 8 50% 10 games

Win % vs bottom 10 71% 7 games

Close game win % 75% 8 games

Home win % 62% 8 games

Away win % 56% 9 games

Interstate win % 60% 5 games

Favourite win % 75% 8 games

Underdog win % 44% 9 games

Fast start rate 59% Led at Q1 in 10 of 17 games

Comeback rate 38% 8 games

Lead held at siren 89% 9 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

Player power

Top 5 players

Marcus Bontempelli Key fwd · 16th league

105.2

Ed Richards Mid · 20th league

104.2

Bailey Dale Mid · 39th league

95.1

Matthew Kennedy Mid · 40th league

94.8

Tom Liberatore Mid

87.3

Venue performance Ground split

Marvel Stadium vs WCE, STK, ADE 10 games 60% +1.3 +8.2

Adelaide Oval vs PORT, HAW, ADE 3 games 67% -10.7 -3.7

One-off venues

MCG vs HAW 1 game · low sample 100% +6.0 +12.9

Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 100% +5.0 +11.9

SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -35.0 -28.1

Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -75.0 -68.1

Stat leaders Club leaders

Goals Aaron Naughton 40 · 2.4 per game

Accuracy Lachlan McNeil 83.3% · 0.6 goals per game · 5 goals, 1 behinds from 6 shots

Goal Assists Joel Freijah 17 · 1.0 per game

Marks inside 50 Aaron Naughton 42 · 2.5 per game

Marks Bailey Dale 78 · 4.6 per game

One-Percenters James ODonnell 120 · 9.2 per game

Disposals Bailey Dale 458 · 26.9 per game

Clearances Marcus Bontempelli 110 · 6.5 per game

Contested Possessions Marcus Bontempelli 198 · 11.6 per game

Tackles Matthew Kennedy 80 · 4.7 per game

Clangers Matthew Kennedy 79 · 4.6 per game

Free Kicks Against Matthew Kennedy 30 · 1.8 per game

Umpire profile Rub of the green

FK rank 6th Avg diff +0.6

Favourite umpires

Peter Bailes +15.6 pts

9 matches · FK diff +3.0

Martin Rodger +10.7 pts

11 matches · FK diff +0.4

Curtis Deboy +10.3 pts

24 matches · FK diff +2.5

Least favourite umpires

Cameron Jones -9.6 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.5

Harrison Birch -6.9 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.4

Jacob Mollison -5.4 pts

37 matches · FK diff +1.1

Show all 32 umpire rows

Peter Bailes +15.6 pts

9 matches · FK diff +3.0

Martin Rodger +10.7 pts

11 matches · FK diff +0.4

Curtis Deboy +10.3 pts

24 matches · FK diff +2.5

Alex Whetton +7.6 pts

15 matches · FK diff +1.1

Cameron Dore +7.5 pts

12 matches · FK diff +1.1

Leigh Fisher +6.3 pts

38 matches · FK diff +1.6

Brett Rosebury +5.0 pts

37 matches · FK diff +1.2

Rob O'Gorman +4.4 pts

24 matches · FK diff +2.0

Nicholas McGinness +4.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.7

Nathan Toner +4.0 pts

12 matches · FK diff +1.8

Brent Wallace +4.0 pts

23 matches · FK diff +1.7

Brendan Hosking +4.0 pts

34 matches · FK diff +1.4

Matt Stevic +3.6 pts

34 matches · FK diff +2.7

Andrew Stephens +2.5 pts

35 matches · FK diff +0.1

Simon Meredith +1.9 pts

43 matches · FK diff +0.8

Andre Gianfagna +1.9 pts

23 matches · FK diff +0.7

Daniel Johanson +1.6 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.3

Craig Fleer +1.4 pts

27 matches · FK diff +0.5

Hayden Meyer +1.1 pts

33 matches · FK diff +2.5

Nick Brown +1.0 pts

26 matches · FK diff +4.1

Jamie Broadbent -0.6 pts

20 matches · FK diff +0.9

Nick Foot -1.1 pts

30 matches · FK diff +0.0

Mathew Nicholls -1.2 pts

28 matches · FK diff +1.4

Nathan Williamson -1.7 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.1

Andrew Heffernan -2.0 pts

11 matches · FK diff +2.5

Justin Power -2.1 pts

13 matches · FK diff +2.3

Paul Rebeschini -2.7 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.6

John Howorth -4.7 pts

20 matches · FK diff +0.1

Eleni Tee -4.9 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.6

Jacob Mollison -5.4 pts

37 matches · FK diff +1.1

Harrison Birch -6.9 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +1.4

Cameron Jones -9.6 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.5

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals

8th projected finish 12.8 wins 10W after 17 played

83% Wildcard round
Top 10

27% Home final
Top 6

9% Double chance
Top 4

2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Melbourne

7-8 -16.9 avg margin · 15 games · Usable sample

Western Bulldogs have gone 7-8 against Melbourne across the last 10 seasons.