AFL Insights

2026 season

Western Bulldogs

5-5 Marvel Stadium
Ladder 10th Current position
Power -0.2 11th in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +1.6
Injuries Major 8.5 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
MEL
Marvel Stadium · Sun 24 May, 3:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs struggle vs top 8 sides (33%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (75%).

Avg next-5 win chance 42%
Rising Evenly-contested slate Injuries: Major

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Evenly-contested slate
Avg opp rank 7.8 Evenly-contested slate · 42% avg win prob Toughest Melbourne
H Tough
MEL Ladder 5th · R11 · Marvel 37% win · -2 pts
True form -11.1 deficit Opp moderate injury load
H Tough
COL Ladder 11th · R12 · Marvel 39% win
True form -1.3 deficit
A Line ball
HAW Ladder 6th · R13 · MCG 47% win
True form -6.7 deficit
H Tough
ADE Ladder 8th · R14 · Marvel 41% win
True form -7.1 deficit
A Line ball
STK Ladder 9th · R15 · Marvel 48% win

Projected 2.1 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Poor · Trend down
Form heat Cold
Last 5 record 1-4
Margin Avg margin -32.6
A L
CAR -12 · R10 Underperformed
A W
PORT +2 · R9 Got Away With One
H L
FRE -12 · R8 Near Miss
H L
SYD -66 · R7 Underperformed
A L
GEE -75 · R6 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Major 84% 7 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Tim English TBC
Tom Liberatore TBC
Sam Darcy Season
Cody Weightman 2-4 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -0.2
Lower League avg Stronger
11th power rank
Ladder rank 10th
True form -1.4
Cool Par Strong
11th
Record 5-5
TFR momentum +1.6
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -7.7
Injury load 8.5 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 84%
Free-kick ladder 7th +0.2
Close games 3-2 5 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Worst loss

L v Carlton
-12 Opp 7th R10 Marvel Stadium

-20.5 pts vs line

Key insights

Tipping storylines

Travel quirk
Melbourne
100 pp state split

Melbourne are a different side once they stay local

They are 7-0 in the same state and 0-3 interstate.

The fixture keeps them in the version of themselves that has shown up more often.

0-3 interstate 7-0 same-state
Bellwether
Western Bulldogs
vs
Melbourne
+66 pp win-rate swing

Tim English has been a barometer for Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs are 19-10 in 29 games with him since 2025, but 0-4 in 4 without him.

He is in this week's availability frame (test), so that split matters more than usual.

with: 19-10 without: 0-4 90 rating

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.7
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 8.2
Upset win % 20% 5 games
Win % vs top 8 33% 6 games
Win % vs bottom 10 75% 4 games
Close game win % 60% 5 games
Home win % 50% 4 games
Away win % 50% 6 games
Interstate win % 75% 4 games
Favourite win % 80% 5 games
Underdog win % 20% 5 games
Fast start rate 70% Led at Q1 in 7 of 10 games
Comeback rate 25% 4 games
Lead held at siren 80% 5 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Western Bulldogs · After OR beat Brisbane Lions 111-106 (+5) · Ladder 5th Western Bulldogs · After R1 beat GWS 134-53 (+81) · Ladder 3rd Western Bulldogs · After R2 beat Adelaide 94-88 (+6) · Ladder 2nd Western Bulldogs · After R4 beat Essendon 99-65 (+34) · Ladder 1st Western Bulldogs · After R5 lost to Hawthorn 64-104 (-40) · Ladder 4th Western Bulldogs · After R6 lost to Geelong 56-131 (-75) · Ladder 7th Western Bulldogs · After R7 lost to Sydney 60-126 (-66) · Ladder 10th Western Bulldogs · After R8 lost to Fremantle 102-114 (-12) · Ladder 12th Western Bulldogs · After R9 beat Port Adelaide 74-72 (+2) · Ladder 9th Western Bulldogs · After R10 lost to Carlton 62-74 (-12) · Ladder 10th Western Bulldogs 10th OR R1 R2 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Marcus Bontempelli Key fwd · 13th league
106.8
Ed Richards Mid · 21st league
101.7
Matthew Kennedy Mid · 37th league
96.1
Tom Liberatore Mid · 38th league
96
Tim English Ruck
90.5
Venue performance Ground split
Marvel Stadium vs CAR, FRE, SYD 5 games 40% +5.0 +12.7
Adelaide Oval vs PORT, HAW, ADE 3 games 67% -10.7 -3.0
One-off venues
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 100% +5.0 +12.7
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 0% -75.0 -67.3
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Aaron Naughton 26 · 2.6 per game
Accuracy Ed Richards 100.0% · 0.6 goals per game · 5 goals, 0 behinds from 5 shots
Goal Assists Marcus Bontempelli 13 · 1.3 per game
Marks inside 50 Aaron Naughton 26 · 2.6 per game
Marks Bailey Williams 65 · 6.5 per game
One-Percenters Buku Khamis 68 · 6.8 per game
Disposals Marcus Bontempelli 273 · 27.3 per game
Clearances Matthew Kennedy 69 · 6.9 per game
Contested Possessions Marcus Bontempelli 105 · 10.5 per game
Tackles Matthew Kennedy 50 · 5.0 per game
Clangers Matthew Kennedy 48 · 4.8 per game
Free Kicks Against Matthew Kennedy 20 · 2.0 per game

Season projection

Finals race

On the bubble
10th projected finish 11.3 wins 5W after 10 played
56% Wildcard round
Top 10
25% Home final
Top 6
13% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Melbourne

6-8 -18.3 avg margin · 14 games · Usable sample

Western Bulldogs have gone 6-8 against Melbourne across the last 10 seasons.