AFL Insights
Curtis Deboy

Umpire profile

Curtis Deboy

No. 11 Heritage 432 Active Last officiated 23 Aug 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

36.0%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 89 · Baseline 28.3% · +7.7 pts

Victorian bias

+0.7 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 78 · Free-kick diff +1.0

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Western Bulldogs
24 +10.3 pts +2.5
2
St Kilda
29 +5.2 pts -0.5
3
Geelong
15 +3.7 pts +1.7
4
Brisbane Lions
27 +1.6 pts -1.5
5
Richmond
24 +1.3 pts -4.0
6
GWS
28 +1.3 pts -3.1
7
Collingwood
33 +1.3 pts +2.2
8
Adelaide
34 +0.9 pts +1.6
9
West Coast
23 +0.5 pts +1.9
10
Melbourne
29 -0.1 pts +0.2
11
Sydney
26 -0.4 pts +0.8
12
North Melbourne
18 -1.7 pts +0.8
13
Port Adelaide
41 -1.7 pts +0.4
14
Fremantle
21 -1.8 pts -0.7
15
Hawthorn
23 -3.0 pts +1.0
16
Gold Coast
20 -3.6 pts -2.4
17
Carlton
27 -7.3 pts -0.8
18
Essendon
18 -7.8 pts -1.1

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Port Adelaide 13.17 95 def. Geelong 10.5 65 83

Round 7 · 25 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 30-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

Geelong 6.15 51 def. by Brisbane Lions 14.8 92 81

Round 15 · 20 Jun 2025 · Kardinia Park

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 41-pt win · 18.5-pt dog

West Coast 13.10 88 def. GWS 10.11 71 78

Round 10 · 17 May 2026 · Optus Stadium

4.45 odds · 83% favourite · 17-pt win · 30.5-pt dog

St Kilda 14.10 94 def. Fremantle 5.3 33 78

Round 8 · 2 May 2025 · Marvel Stadium

2.68 odds · 67% favourite · 61-pt win · 10.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 11.10 76 def. by GWS 17.9 111 77

Round 23 · 16 Aug 2025 · Carrara

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 35-pt win · 18.5-pt dog