AFL Insights
Curtis Deboy

Umpire profile

Curtis Deboy

No. 11 Heritage 432 Active Last officiated 11 Jul 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

37.3%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 83 · Baseline 28.6% · +8.8 pts

Victorian bias

+0.1 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 76 · Free-kick diff +1.0

Significant upsets

5

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Western Bulldogs
24 +10.3 pts +2.5
2
St Kilda
28 +4.5 pts -0.9
3
Geelong
15 +3.7 pts +1.7
4
Adelaide
33 +2.1 pts +1.4
5
Brisbane Lions
27 +1.6 pts -1.5
6
GWS
28 +1.3 pts -3.1
7
Collingwood
33 +1.3 pts +2.2
8
Richmond
22 +0.8 pts -3.5
9
West Coast
23 +0.5 pts +1.9
10
North Melbourne
17 +0.0 pts +1.1
11
Melbourne
28 -0.3 pts +0.5
12
Fremantle
20 -1.2 pts -0.6
13
Sydney
25 -1.8 pts +0.6
14
Port Adelaide
40 -2.1 pts +0.3
15
Hawthorn
23 -3.0 pts +1.0
16
Gold Coast
18 -3.4 pts -2.5
17
Carlton
26 -7.7 pts -1.3
18
Essendon
18 -7.8 pts -1.1

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Port Adelaide 13.17 95 def. Geelong 10.5 65 83

Round 7 · 25 Apr 2026 · Adelaide Oval

4.00 odds · 80% favourite · 30-pt win · 26.5-pt dog

Geelong 6.15 51 def. by Brisbane Lions 14.8 92 81

Round 15 · 20 Jun 2025 · Kardinia Park

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 41-pt win · 18.5-pt dog

West Coast 13.10 88 def. GWS 10.11 71 78

Round 10 · 17 May 2026 · Optus Stadium

4.45 odds · 83% favourite · 17-pt win · 30.5-pt dog

St Kilda 14.10 94 def. Fremantle 5.3 33 78

Round 8 · 2 May 2025 · Marvel Stadium

2.68 odds · 67% favourite · 61-pt win · 10.5-pt dog

Gold Coast 11.10 76 def. by GWS 17.9 111 77

Round 23 · 16 Aug 2025 · Carrara

3.30 odds · 74% favourite · 35-pt win · 18.5-pt dog