AFL Insights

2026 season

Collingwood

4-5-1 MCG
Ladder 11th Current position
Power +2.9 3rd in league
True form Rising TFR momentum: +1.6
Injuries Minor 1.6 pts
Confidence High High tipping confidence
Next opponent
WCE
MCG · Sat 23 May, 4:35 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Collingwood profile is tip-friendly

Collingwood struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (100%).

Avg next-5 win chance 70%
Rising Favourable run Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Favourable run
Avg opp rank 12.4 Favourable run · 70% avg win prob Toughest Melbourne
H Favourable
WCE Ladder 15th · R11 · MCG 88% win · +4 pts
True form +14.9 advantage Opp moderate injury load
A Favourable
WBD Ladder 10th · R12 · Marvel 61% win
True form +1.3 advantage
H Line ball
MEL Ladder 5th · R13 · MCG 54% win
True form -9.8 deficit
H Favourable
PORT Ladder 14th · R15 · MCG 66% win
True form +9.0 advantage
H Favourable
RIC Ladder 18th · R16 · MCG 82% win
True form +19.1 advantage

Projected 3.5 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Volatile · Mixed trend
Form heat Ice cold
Last 5 record 2-2-1
Margin Avg margin +4.4
A L
SYD -6 · R10 Overperformed
A L
GEE -54 · R9 Underperformed
H D
HAW +0 · R8 Overperformed
A W
ESS +77 · R7 Overperformed
A W
CAR +5 · R6 Got Away With One

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 88% 7 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Harry Perryman 2-3 weeks
Tim Membrey 1-2 weeks
Darcy Moore TBC
Joel Cochran 3-5 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Worsening — more players out

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +2.9
Lower League avg Stronger
3rd power rank
Ladder rank 11th
True form -0.1
Cool Par Strong
9th
Record 4-5-1
TFR momentum +1.6
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin -0.7
Injury load 1.6 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 88%
Free-kick ladder 12th -0.2
Close games 2-2-1 5 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v St Kilda
+12 Opp 10th OR MCG

+15.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Adelaide
-14 Opp 4th R1 MCG

-21.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +1.0
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 10.3
Upset win % 17% 6 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 6 games
Win % vs bottom 10 100% 4 games
Close game win % 40% 5 games
Home win % 25% 4 games
Away win % 50% 6 games
Interstate win % 0% 3 games
Favourite win % 75% 4 games
Underdog win % 17% 6 games
Fast start rate 70% Led at Q1 in 7 of 10 games
Comeback rate 40% 5 games
Lead held at siren 75% 4 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Collingwood · After OR beat St Kilda 78-66 (+12) · Ladder 4th Collingwood · After R1 lost to Adelaide 79-93 (-14) · Ladder 8th Collingwood · After R3 beat GWS 87-54 (+33) · Ladder 7th Collingwood · After R4 lost to Brisbane Lions 65-119 (-54) · Ladder 10th Collingwood · After R5 lost to Fremantle 39-45 (-6) · Ladder 13th Collingwood · After R6 beat Carlton 88-83 (+5) · Ladder 11th Collingwood · After R7 beat Essendon 137-60 (+77) · Ladder 8th Collingwood · After R8 drew with Hawthorn 93-93 (+0) · Ladder 8th Collingwood · After R9 lost to Geelong 68-122 (-54) · Ladder 10th Collingwood · After R10 lost to Sydney 75-81 (-6) · Ladder 11th Collingwood 11th OR R1 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Nick Daicos Key fwd · 2nd league
120.1
Josh Daicos Mid · 25th league
100.8
Dan Houston Mid · 32nd league
98.9
Jack Crisp Mid · 40th league
95.8
Scott Pendlebury Mid
88.4
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs GEE, HAW, ESS 6 games 58% +4.3 +5.0
One-off venues
Marvel Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 100% +33.0 +33.7
Adelaide Oval vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -6.0 -5.3
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -6.0 -5.3
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -54.0 -53.3
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Daniel McStay 17 · 1.7 per game
Accuracy Jordan de Goey 81.8% · 1.0 goals per game · 9 goals, 2 behinds from 11 shots
Goal Assists Scott Pendlebury 9 · 1.3 per game
Marks inside 50 Daniel McStay 22 · 2.2 per game
Marks Dan Houston 76 · 7.6 per game
One-Percenters Billy Frampton 79 · 7.9 per game
Disposals Nick Daicos 313 · 34.8 per game
Clearances Nick Daicos 43 · 4.8 per game
Contested Possessions Nick Daicos 88 · 9.8 per game
Tackles Ned Long 61 · 6.8 per game
Clangers Nick Daicos 48 · 5.3 per game
Free Kicks Against Lachie Schultz 13 · 1.3 per game

Season projection

Finals race

On the bubble
9th projected finish 11.6 wins 4W after 10 played
60% Wildcard round
Top 10
27% Home final
Top 6
14% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Hawthorn

5-7-1 -10.2 avg margin · 13 games · Usable sample

Collingwood have gone 5-7-1 against Hawthorn across the last 10 seasons.