AFL Insights

2026 season

Collingwood

9-7-1 MCG
Ladder 8th Current position
Power -2.0 13th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: -0.4
Injuries Moderate 8.3 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
CAR
MCG · Sat 18 Jul, 7:35 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Use caution with Collingwood

Collingwood struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (90%).

Avg next-5 win chance 36%
Stable Tough slate Injuries: Moderate

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Tough slate
Avg opp rank 9.0 Tough slate · 36% avg win prob Toughest Hawthorn
H Line ball
CAR Ladder 12th · R19 · MCG 54% win · +4 pts
True form +10.5 advantage Our own injury load
A Tough
ADE Ladder 5th · R20 · Adel Oval 27% win
True form -11.0 deficit Interstate trip
H Tough
GEE Ladder 9th · R21 · MCG 32% win
True form -3.1 deficit
A Tough
WCE Ladder 16th · R22 · Optus 44% win
True form +16.5 advantage Interstate trip
A Tough
HAW Ladder 3rd · R23 · MCG 21% win
True form -15.0 deficit

Projected 1.8 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Hot
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +12.6
H W
NTH +4 · R18 Underperformed
A W
GCS +6 · R17 Overperformed
H W
RIC +34 · R16 Clinical
H W
PORT +27 · R15 Overperformed
H L
MEL -8 · R13 Near Miss

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Moderate 85% 7 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Lachie Schultz 2-4 weeks
Jamie Elliott Season
Jeremy Howe Injured
Oscar Steene Season

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -2.0
Lower League avg Stronger
13th power rank
Ladder rank 8th
True form 1.3
Cool Par Strong
9th
Record 9-7-1
TFR momentum -0.4
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +3.6
Injury load 8.3 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 85%
Free-kick ladder 13th -0.4
Close games 5-4-1 10 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v St Kilda
+12 Opp 10th OR MCG

+15.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Geelong
-54 Opp 3rd R9 MCG

-40.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.8
Remaining difficulty Tough run home Avg opp rank 7.3
Upset win % 25% 8 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 7 games
Win % vs bottom 10 90% 10 games
Close game win % 50% 10 games
Home win % 56% 9 games
Away win % 50% 8 games
Interstate win % 25% 4 games
Favourite win % 78% 9 games
Underdog win % 25% 8 games
Fast start rate 59% Led at Q1 in 10 of 17 games
Comeback rate 43% 7 games
Lead held at siren 80% 10 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Collingwood · After OR beat St Kilda 78-66 (+12) · Ladder 4th Collingwood · After R1 lost to Adelaide 79-93 (-14) · Ladder 8th Collingwood · After R3 beat GWS 87-54 (+33) · Ladder 7th Collingwood · After R4 lost to Brisbane Lions 65-119 (-54) · Ladder 10th Collingwood · After R5 lost to Fremantle 39-45 (-6) · Ladder 13th Collingwood · After R6 beat Carlton 88-83 (+5) · Ladder 11th Collingwood · After R7 beat Essendon 137-60 (+77) · Ladder 8th Collingwood · After R8 drew with Hawthorn 93-93 (+0) · Ladder 8th Collingwood · After R9 lost to Geelong 68-122 (-54) · Ladder 10th Collingwood · After R10 lost to Sydney 75-81 (-6) · Ladder 11th Collingwood · After R11 beat West Coast 92-82 (+10) · Ladder 10th Collingwood · After R12 lost to Western Bulldogs 93-97 (-4) · Ladder 11th Collingwood · After R13 lost to Melbourne 75-83 (-8) · Ladder 11th Collingwood · After R15 beat Port Adelaide 78-51 (+27) · Ladder 11th Collingwood · After R16 beat Richmond 106-72 (+34) · Ladder 10th Collingwood · After R17 beat Gold Coast 104-98 (+6) · Ladder 9th Collingwood · After R18 beat North Melbourne 89-85 (+4) · Ladder 8th Collingwood 8th OR R5 R9 R13 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Nick Daicos Key fwd · 2nd league
121.3
Josh Daicos Mid · 24th league
101.3
Dan Houston Mid
90.3
Jack Crisp Mid
88.8
Darcy Cameron Ruck
86.1
Venue performance Ground split
MCG vs RIC, PORT, MEL 10 games 65% +8.9 +5.3
Marvel Stadium vs NTH, WBD, GWS 3 games 67% +11.0 +7.4
One-off venues
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +6.0 +2.4
Adelaide Oval vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -6.0 -9.6
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -6.0 -9.6
Gabba vs BRL 1 game · low sample 0% -54.0 -57.6
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Daniel McStay 29 · 1.7 per game
Accuracy Daniel McStay 74.4% · 1.7 goals per game · 29 goals, 10 behinds from 39 shots
Goal Assists Jordan de Goey 19 · 1.2 per game
Marks inside 50 Tim Membrey 35 · 2.7 per game
Marks Dan Houston 119 · 7.0 per game
One-Percenters Billy Frampton 128 · 7.5 per game
Disposals Nick Daicos 556 · 34.8 per game
Clearances Nick Daicos 89 · 5.6 per game
Contested Possessions Nick Daicos 164 · 10.2 per game
Tackles Ned Long 92 · 6.1 per game
Clangers Nick Daicos 80 · 5.0 per game
Free Kicks Against Darcy Cameron 20 · 1.2 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 13th Avg diff -0.4

Favourite umpires

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +6.1 pts

23 matches · FK diff +3.2

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +5.6 pts

55 matches · FK diff +0.8

John Howorth
John Howorth +3.5 pts

20 matches · FK diff +1.8

Least favourite umpires

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -8.1 pts

7 matches · FK diff +4.6

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -6.3 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.4

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini -5.7 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.2

Show all 29 umpire rows
Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +6.1 pts

23 matches · FK diff +3.2

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury +5.6 pts

55 matches · FK diff +0.8

John Howorth
John Howorth +3.5 pts

20 matches · FK diff +1.8

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton +3.2 pts

12 matches · FK diff +2.8

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +3.1 pts

33 matches · FK diff +0.3

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +2.6 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.5

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens +2.4 pts

43 matches · FK diff +0.3

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +1.9 pts

37 matches · FK diff +2.2

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer +1.9 pts

26 matches · FK diff +1.3

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +1.5 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.4

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy +1.3 pts

33 matches · FK diff +2.2

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace +1.0 pts

18 matches · FK diff +1.6

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes +0.3 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.8

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +0.2 pts

36 matches · FK diff +2.5

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +0.1 pts

7 matches · FK diff -1.0

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore +0.1 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.2

Justin Power
Justin Power -0.3 pts

17 matches · FK diff -0.5

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman -0.5 pts

29 matches · FK diff +1.0

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -1.3 pts

8 matches · FK diff +2.6

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -1.6 pts

11 matches · FK diff +2.3

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -1.8 pts

24 matches · FK diff +1.5

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith -3.4 pts

55 matches · FK diff +1.5

Nick Brown
Nick Brown -3.4 pts

11 matches · FK diff +3.0

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison -3.7 pts

45 matches · FK diff -0.7

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -4.8 pts

55 matches · FK diff +0.8

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -4.8 pts

43 matches · FK diff +0.9

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini -5.7 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.2

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -6.3 pts

10 matches · FK diff -0.4

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee -8.1 pts

7 matches · FK diff +4.6

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

On the bubble
10th projected finish 11.4 wins 9W after 17 played
57% Wildcard round
Top 10
11% Home final
Top 6
4% Double chance
Top 4
2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Hawthorn

5-7-1 -10.2 avg margin · 13 games · Usable sample

Collingwood have gone 5-7-1 against Hawthorn across the last 10 seasons.