AFL Insights

2026 season

St Kilda

5-5 Marvel Stadium
Ladder 9th Current position
Power -0.2 10th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -2.3
Injuries Moderate 6.6 pts
Confidence Low Low tipping confidence
Next opponent
FRE
Optus Stadium · Fri 22 May, 6:30 PM AWST

Tipping insight

Use caution with St Kilda

St Kilda struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (83%).

Avg next-5 win chance 44%
Falling Evenly-contested slate Injuries: Moderate

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Evenly-contested slate
Avg opp rank 6.4 Evenly-contested slate · 44% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle
A Tough
FRE Ladder 2nd · R11 · Optus 15% win · -29 pts
True form -16.9 deficit Our own injury load
H Line ball
HAW Ladder 6th · R12 · Marvel 51% win
True form -6.2 deficit
A Tough
SYD Ladder 1st · R13 · SCG 38% win
True form -14.7 deficit Interstate trip
H Favourable
GWS Ladder 13th · R14 · Marvel 63% win
True form +7.1 advantage
H Line ball
WBD Ladder 10th · R15 · Marvel 52% win

Projected 2.2 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Stable · Mixed trend
Form heat Hot
Last 5 record 3-2
Margin Avg margin +29.2
H W
RIC +36 · R10 Clinical
A L
GCS -29 · R9 Result
A W
CAR +39 · R8 Overperformed
H W
WCE +101 · R7 Overperformed
A L
ADE -1 · R6 Near Miss

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Moderate 86% 8 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 3 weeks
Hunter Clark TBC
Paddy Dow Test
Liam Ryan 3 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Worsening — more players out

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -0.2
Lower League avg Stronger
10th power rank
Ladder rank 9th
True form -0.9
Cool Par Strong
10th
Record 5-5
TFR momentum -2.3
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +10.6
Injury load 6.6 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 86%
Free-kick ladder 2nd +3.7
Close games 1-2 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v GWS
+4 Opp 15th R2 ENGIE Stadium

+14.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Below-average draw SoS -1.4
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.7
Upset win % 25% 4 games
Win % vs top 8 0% 4 games
Win % vs bottom 10 83% 6 games
Close game win % 33% 3 games
Home win % 50% 4 games
Away win % 50% 6 games
Interstate win % 50% 4 games
Favourite win % 67% 6 games
Underdog win % 25% 4 games
Fast start rate 90% Led at Q1 in 9 of 10 games
Comeback rate 25% 4 games
Lead held at siren 100% 5 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 St Kilda · After OR lost to Collingwood 66-78 (-12) · Ladder 7th St Kilda · After R1 lost to Melbourne 107-120 (-13) · Ladder 14th St Kilda · After R2 beat GWS 78-74 (+4) · Ladder 10th St Kilda · After R3 lost to Brisbane Lions 80-113 (-33) · Ladder 14th St Kilda · After R5 beat Port Adelaide 81-67 (+14) · Ladder 14th St Kilda · After R6 lost to Adelaide 102-103 (-1) · Ladder 13th St Kilda · After R7 beat West Coast 143-42 (+101) · Ladder 12th St Kilda · After R8 beat Carlton 108-69 (+39) · Ladder 9th St Kilda · After R9 lost to Gold Coast 60-89 (-29) · Ladder 11th St Kilda · After R10 beat Richmond 109-73 (+36) · Ladder 9th St Kilda 9th OR R1 R2 R3 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Jack Sinclair Mid · 11th league
108.1
Callum Wilkie Mid · 20th league
104
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Key fwd · 28th league
100
Sam Flanders Mid · 45th league
94.8
Bradley Hill Mid
89.5
Venue performance Ground split
Marvel Stadium vs RIC, CAR, WCE 4 games 75% +35.8 +25.1
Adelaide Oval vs ADE, PORT 2 games · low sample 50% +6.5 -4.1
MCG vs MEL, COL 2 games · low sample 0% -12.5 -23.1
One-off venues
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 100% +4.0 -6.6
TIO Stadium vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -29.0 -39.6
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Jack Higgins 17 · 2.1 per game
Accuracy Dan Butler 100.0% · 0.6 goals per game · 3 goals, 0 behinds from 3 shots
Goal Assists Cooper Sharman 14 · 1.4 per game
Marks inside 50 Cooper Sharman 22 · 2.2 per game
Marks Callum Wilkie 111 · 11.1 per game
One-Percenters Jack Silvagni 57 · 5.7 per game
Disposals Jack Sinclair 294 · 29.4 per game
Clearances Hugo Garcia 63 · 6.3 per game
Contested Possessions Hugo Garcia 100 · 10.0 per game
Tackles Hugo Garcia 53 · 5.3 per game
Clangers Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 39 · 4.9 per game
Free Kicks Against Tom De Koning 18 · 1.8 per game

Season projection

Finals race

On the bubble
9th projected finish 11.5 wins 5W after 10 played
58% Wildcard round
Top 10
26% Home final
Top 6
14% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Western Bulldogs

4-7 -27.0 avg margin · 11 games · Usable sample

St Kilda have gone 4-7 against Western Bulldogs across the last 10 seasons.