2026 St Kilda club intelligence

2026 season

St Kilda

8-9 Marvel Stadium

Ladder 10th Current position

Power +0.1 10th in league

True form Stable TFR momentum: +0.0

Injuries Minor 6 pts

Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence

Next opponent

GEE

Kardinia Park · Thu 16 Jul, 7:30 PM AEST

Tipping insight

St Kilda need matchup context

St Kilda struggle vs top 8 sides (0%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (89%).

Avg next-5 win chance 52%

Stable Slightly favourable Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable

Avg opp rank 10.6 Slightly favourable · 52% avg win prob Toughest Sydney

A Tough

GEE Ladder 9th · R19 · Kardinia 30% win · -16 pts

True form -6.9 deficit Opp major injury load

A Line ball

NTH Ladder 13th · R20 · Marvel 50% win

H Tough

SYD Ladder 2nd · R21 · Marvel 44% win

True form -16.4 deficit

H Favourable

CAR Ladder 12th · R22 · Marvel 77% win

True form +6.6 advantage

A Line ball

RIC Ladder 17th · R23 · MCG 58% win

True form +14.0 advantage Our own injury load

Projected 2.6 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Stable · Mixed trend

Form heat Hot

Last 5 record 3-2

Margin Avg margin +13.0

H W

PORT +14 · R18 Result

A W

ESS +67 · R17 Overperformed

H L

WBD -22 · R15 Underperformed

H W

GWS +8 · R14 Result

A L

SYD -2 · R13 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries

Minor 85% 6 listed injuries

Clear Manageable Major

Jack Sinclair Season

Sam Flanders Season

Max King 1-3 weeks

Tom De Koning 1-3 weeks

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +0.1

Lower League avg Stronger

10th power rank

Ladder rank 10th

True form -2.5

Cool Par Strong

11th

Record 8-9

TFR momentum +0.0

Declining Stable Rising

Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)

Avg margin +5.2

Injury load 6 pts

Clear Manageable Major

Lower is healthier

Best side available 85%

Free-kick ladder 1st +2.5

Close games 2-3 5 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v GWS

+4 Opp 9th R2 ENGIE Stadium

+14.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v Gold Coast

-29 Opp 16th R9 TIO Stadium

-8.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.4

Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 11.7

Upset win % 25% 8 games

Win % vs top 8 0% 8 games

Win % vs bottom 10 89% 9 games

Close game win % 40% 5 games

Home win % 50% 8 games

Away win % 44% 9 games

Interstate win % 33% 6 games

Favourite win % 67% 9 games

Underdog win % 25% 8 games

Fast start rate 88% Led at Q1 in 15 of 17 games

Comeback rate 17% 6 games

Lead held at siren 89% 9 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

Player power

Top 5 players

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Key fwd · 5th league

110

Callum Wilkie Mid · 22nd league

102.1

Jack Sinclair Mid · 28th league

99.5

Bradley Hill Mid · 36th league

96.3

Sam Flanders Mid · 50th league

91.6

Venue performance Ground split

Marvel Stadium vs PORT, ESS, WBD 9 games 67% +17.6 +12.3

Adelaide Oval vs ADE, PORT 2 games · low sample 50% +6.5 +1.3

MCG vs MEL, COL 2 games · low sample 0% -12.5 -17.7

One-off venues

ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 100% +4.0 -1.2

SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -2.0 -7.2

TIO Stadium vs GCS 1 game · low sample 0% -29.0 -34.2

Optus Stadium vs FRE 1 game · low sample 0% -30.0 -35.2

Stat leaders Club leaders

Goals Liam Ryan 26 · 2.2 per game

Accuracy Dan Butler 100.0% · 0.6 goals per game · 4 goals, 0 behinds from 4 shots

Goal Assists Cooper Sharman 23 · 1.4 per game

Marks inside 50 Cooper Sharman 41 · 2.4 per game

Marks Callum Wilkie 173 · 10.2 per game

One-Percenters Jack Silvagni 97 · 5.7 per game

Disposals Bradley Hill 430 · 25.3 per game

Clearances Hugo Garcia 105 · 6.2 per game

Contested Possessions Hugo Garcia 170 · 10.0 per game

Tackles Hugo Garcia 90 · 5.3 per game

Clangers Marcus Windhager 63 · 3.7 per game

Free Kicks Against Tom De Koning 30 · 2.0 per game

Umpire profile Rub of the green

FK rank 1st Avg diff +2.5

Favourite umpires

Jordan Fry +10.1 pts

8 matches · FK diff +1.4

Cameron Dore +7.4 pts

16 matches · FK diff -1.4

Simon Meredith +7.1 pts

22 matches · FK diff -2.0

Least favourite umpires

Hayden Meyer -12.4 pts

23 matches · FK diff -0.2

Peter Bailes -11.9 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.5

Tom Bryce -9.2 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.8

Show all 37 umpire rows

Jordan Fry +10.1 pts

8 matches · FK diff +1.4

Cameron Dore +7.4 pts

16 matches · FK diff -1.4

Simon Meredith +7.1 pts

22 matches · FK diff -2.0

Matthew Young +6.8 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.0

John Howorth +5.4 pts

20 matches · FK diff +0.8

Martin Rodger +5.2 pts

8 matches · FK diff -0.1

Nathan Toner +4.7 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.3

Curtis Deboy +4.5 pts

28 matches · FK diff -0.9

Nathan Williamson +4.4 pts

16 matches · FK diff -0.5

Brendan Hosking +4.4 pts

27 matches · FK diff +1.0

Andrew Adair +3.7 pts

9 matches · FK diff +1.8

Leigh Fisher +3.7 pts

29 matches · FK diff -0.7

Harrison Birch +3.1 pts

7 matches · FK diff +1.9

Paul Rebeschini +3.0 pts

11 matches · FK diff +2.5

Alex Whetton +2.9 pts

21 matches · FK diff -0.7

Nick Jankovskis +2.3 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +4.4

Jamie Broadbent +2.2 pts

17 matches · FK diff +2.1

Brent Wallace +1.9 pts

19 matches · FK diff +1.5

Matt Stevic +1.6 pts

36 matches · FK diff +0.4

Nick Foot +1.6 pts

31 matches · FK diff -0.6

Daniel Johanson +1.4 pts

9 matches · FK diff +2.9

Nicholas McGinness +1.0 pts

10 matches · FK diff -1.2

Andre Gianfagna +0.7 pts

20 matches · FK diff +1.5

Brett Rosebury +0.5 pts

18 matches · FK diff -0.7

Jacob Mollison +0.4 pts

37 matches · FK diff -0.8

Justin Power +0.3 pts

15 matches · FK diff -0.5

Andrew Heffernan -0.3 pts

12 matches · FK diff +0.3

Andrew Stephens -1.7 pts

35 matches · FK diff -1.0

Nick Brown -2.8 pts

24 matches · FK diff -0.5

Rob O'Gorman -3.2 pts

34 matches · FK diff -0.3

Eleni Tee -4.1 pts

13 matches · FK diff -0.4

Mathew Nicholls -4.7 pts

24 matches · FK diff -1.7

Cameron Jones -5.7 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.3

Craig Fleer -9.0 pts

31 matches · FK diff +0.3

Tom Bryce -9.2 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.8

Peter Bailes -11.9 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -1.5

Hayden Meyer -12.4 pts

23 matches · FK diff -0.2

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

On the bubble

10th projected finish 11.3 wins 8W after 17 played

52% Wildcard round
Top 10

8% Home final
Top 6

3% Double chance
Top 4

2% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Western Bulldogs

4-8 -26.6 avg margin · 12 games · Usable sample

St Kilda have gone 4-8 against Western Bulldogs across the last 10 seasons.