AFL Insights

2026 season

Brisbane Lions

16-7 Gabba
Ladder 3rd Current position
Power +3.0 5th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -1.0
Injuries Minor 0.1 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
HAW
MCG · Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Brisbane Lions need matchup context

Brisbane Lions are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (45%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (86%).

Avg next-5 win chance 59%
Falling Slightly favourable Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 4.0 Slightly favourable · 59% avg win prob Toughest Hawthorn
A Line ball
HAW Ladder 4th · PF · MCG 59% win · +8 pts
True form +2.5 advantage Interstate trip

Projected 0.6 wins from the next 1.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Red hot
Last 5 record 4-1
Margin Avg margin +34.4
H W
ADE +53 · SF Overperformed
A L
SYD -53 · F1 Underperformed
A W
COL +63 · R24 Overperformed
H W
GCS +42 · R23 Clinical
H W
HAW +67 · R22 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 95% 5 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Noah Answerth Test
Jack Payne Season
Zane Zakostelsky Season
Henry Smith Season

As of 08 Sep 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +3.0
Lower League avg Stronger
5th power rank
Ladder rank 3rd
True form 18.3
Cool Par Strong
1st
Record 16-7
TFR momentum -1.0
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +19.3
Injury load 0.1 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 95%
Free-kick ladder 12th +0.1
Close games 1-2 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Sydney
+43 Opp 2nd R16 Gabba

+41.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v GWS
-78 Opp 13th R11 ENGIE Stadium

-89.5 pts vs line

Key insights

Tipping storylines

Record streak
Hawthorn
vs
Brisbane Lions
Thrashed

Brisbane were belted twice by 75+ this year - a hole almost no premier escapes

Brisbane lost by 78 to GWS (R11) and 76 to Carlton (R21) in 2026. Only twice in VFL/AFL history has a side lost two games by 75+ in a season and still won the flag - most recently Hawthorn in 1991.

Sample: 2

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS +0.0
Remaining difficulty Brutal run home Avg opp rank 1.0
Upset win % 67% 3 games
Win % vs top 8 45% 11 games
Win % vs bottom 10 86% 14 games
Close game win % 33% 3 games
Home win % 75% 12 games
Away win % 62% 13 games
Interstate win % 58% 12 games
Favourite win % 68% 22 games
Underdog win % 67% 3 games
Fast start rate 52% Led at Q1 in 13 of 25 games
Comeback rate 33% 9 games
Lead held at siren 94% 18 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R24

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Brisbane Lions · After OR lost to Western Bulldogs 106-111 (-5) · Ladder 6th Brisbane Lions · After R1 lost to Sydney 60-104 (-44) · Ladder 15th Brisbane Lions · After R3 beat St Kilda 113-80 (+33) · Ladder 13th Brisbane Lions · After R4 beat Collingwood 119-65 (+54) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R5 beat North Melbourne 92-66 (+26) · Ladder 6th Brisbane Lions · After R6 lost to Melbourne 102-104 (-2) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R7 beat Adelaide 127-75 (+52) · Ladder 5th Brisbane Lions · After R8 beat Essendon 143-79 (+64) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R9 beat Carlton 100-89 (+11) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R10 lost to Geelong 76-117 (-41) · Ladder 7th Brisbane Lions · After R11 lost to GWS 88-166 (-78) · Ladder 8th Brisbane Lions · After R12 lost to Fremantle 78-103 (-25) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R13 beat Gold Coast 106-75 (+31) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R14 beat Richmond 115-80 (+35) · Ladder 7th Brisbane Lions · After R16 beat Sydney 126-83 (+43) · Ladder 5th Brisbane Lions · After R17 beat Geelong 123-101 (+22) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R18 beat Essendon 149-59 (+90) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R19 beat West Coast 93-69 (+24) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R20 beat Port Adelaide 126-67 (+59) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R21 lost to Carlton 78-154 (-76) · Ladder 5th Brisbane Lions · After R22 beat Hawthorn 125-58 (+67) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R23 beat Gold Coast 95-53 (+42) · Ladder 3rd Brisbane Lions · After R24 beat Collingwood 159-96 (+63) · Ladder 3rd Brisbane Lions 3rd OR R7 R12 R18 R24

Player power

Top 5 players

Will Ashcroft Mid · 7th league
107.4
Lachie Neale Mid · 27th league
99.4
Dayne Zorko Mid · 32nd league
98.1
Josh Dunkley Mid · 36th league
95.6
Zac Bailey Key fwd · 43rd league
94.5
Venue performance Ground split
Gabba vs ADE, GCS, HAW 12 games 75% +33.3 +15.5
Marvel Stadium vs CAR, ESS, STK 3 games 67% +7.0 -10.8
MCG vs COL, MEL 2 games · low sample 50% +30.5 +12.7
SCG vs SYD, SYD 2 games · low sample 0% -48.5 -66.3
One-off venues
Blundstone Arena vs RIC 1 game · low sample 100% +35.0 +17.2
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +31.0 +13.2
Barossa Park vs NTH 1 game · low sample 100% +26.0 +8.2
Optus Stadium vs WCE 1 game · low sample 100% +24.0 +6.2
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 100% +22.0 +4.2
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -78.0 -95.8
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Logan Morris 67 · 2.8 per game
Accuracy Eric Hipwood 68.0% · 1.4 goals per game · 17 goals, 8 behinds from 25 shots
Goal Assists Zac Bailey 28 · 1.2 per game
Marks inside 50 Logan Morris 75 · 3.1 per game
Marks Darcy Wilmot 162 · 6.5 per game
One-Percenters Harris Andrews 158 · 7.2 per game
Disposals Lachie Neale 729 · 29.2 per game
Clearances Lachie Neale 169 · 6.8 per game
Contested Possessions Lachie Neale 321 · 12.8 per game
Tackles Josh Dunkley 168 · 6.7 per game
Clangers Will Ashcroft 79 · 3.2 per game
Free Kicks Against Kai Lohmann 33 · 1.3 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 12th Avg diff +0.1

Favourite umpires

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +11.3 pts

37 matches · FK diff +0.6

Justin Power
Justin Power +10.3 pts

12 matches · FK diff +2.8

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +9.9 pts

45 matches · FK diff +0.2

Least favourite umpires

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis -14.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.8

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -10.8 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.2

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -9.8 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.2

Show all 34 umpire rows
Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +11.3 pts

37 matches · FK diff +0.6

Justin Power
Justin Power +10.3 pts

12 matches · FK diff +2.8

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +9.9 pts

45 matches · FK diff +0.2

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +9.7 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.1

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +8.5 pts

34 matches · FK diff -0.0

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +8.0 pts

10 matches · FK diff -1.3

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +8.0 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.3

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness +7.0 pts

9 matches · FK diff +2.4

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +3.1 pts

32 matches · FK diff +0.8

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +2.3 pts

26 matches · FK diff +2.0

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger +1.9 pts

9 matches · FK diff +2.6

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy +1.6 pts

27 matches · FK diff -1.5

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +1.1 pts

15 matches · FK diff +0.7

Nick Foot
Nick Foot +0.9 pts

38 matches · FK diff -0.3

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +0.6 pts

8 matches · FK diff -2.9

Nick Brown
Nick Brown -0.4 pts

23 matches · FK diff -0.1

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini -0.4 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.2

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -0.7 pts

21 matches · FK diff +3.5

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -1.0 pts

24 matches · FK diff +3.1

John Howorth
John Howorth -1.2 pts

18 matches · FK diff +3.7

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner -1.5 pts

8 matches · FK diff +0.4

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -2.2 pts

21 matches · FK diff +0.7

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -3.4 pts

28 matches · FK diff -1.0

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -4.0 pts

41 matches · FK diff -0.8

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -4.4 pts

28 matches · FK diff +0.5

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -4.4 pts

55 matches · FK diff +1.7

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -4.5 pts

45 matches · FK diff +0.1

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan -4.9 pts

10 matches · FK diff +1.5

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones -5.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.8

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce -7.7 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +5.2

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair -9.4 pts

8 matches · FK diff +2.5

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -9.8 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff -0.2

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -10.8 pts

32 matches · FK diff +1.2

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis -14.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.8

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Top 4 locked
3rd projected finish 17.4 wins 17W after 25 played
100% Wildcard round
Top 10
100% Home final
Top 6
100% Double chance
Top 4
0% Top 2
Top 2

Round 25 of 26 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

8-10 -10.9 avg margin · 18 games · Usable sample

Brisbane Lions have gone 8-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.