AFL Insights

2026 season

Brisbane Lions

11-6 Gabba
Ladder 4th Current position
Power +2.8 4th in league
True form Stable TFR momentum: -0.3
Injuries Minor 0 pts
Confidence High High tipping confidence
Next opponent
WCE
Optus Stadium · Sat 18 Jul, 6:10 PM AWST

Tipping insight

Brisbane Lions profile is tip-friendly

Brisbane Lions are roughly break-even vs top 8 sides (43%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (80%).

Avg next-5 win chance 70%
Stable Favourable run Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Favourable run
Avg opp rank 12.0 Favourable run · 70% avg win prob Toughest Hawthorn
A Favourable
WCE Ladder 16th · R19 · Optus 87% win · +44 pts
True form +27.6 advantage Interstate trip
H Line ball
PORT Ladder 15th · R20 · Gabba 59% win
True form +21.9 advantage
A Favourable
CAR Ladder 12th · R21 · Marvel 81% win
True form +21.6 advantage Interstate trip
H Tough
HAW Ladder 3rd · R22 · Gabba 43% win
True form -3.9 deficit
H Favourable
GCS Ladder 14th · R23 · Gabba 78% win
True form +23.2 advantage

Projected 3.5 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Strong · Trend up
Form heat Red hot
Last 5 record 5-0
Margin Avg margin +44.2
H W
ESS +90 · R18 Overperformed
A W
GEE +22 · R17 Overperformed
H W
SYD +43 · R16 Overperformed
A W
RIC +35 · R14 Underperformed
A W
GCS +31 · R13 Overperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 96% 2 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Jack Payne Season
Darcy Gardiner 3-5 weeks

As of 14 Jul 2026 · Improving — injury load easing

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating +2.8
Lower League avg Stronger
4th power rank
Ladder rank 4th
True form 12.5
Cool Par Strong
4th
Record 11-6
TFR momentum -0.3
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +15.6
Injury load 0 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best side available 96%
Free-kick ladder 7th +0.4
Close games 1-2 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Sydney
+43 Opp 7th R16 Gabba

+41.5 pts vs line

Worst loss

L v GWS
-78 Opp 9th R11 ENGIE Stadium

-89.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.3
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 11.3
Upset win % 67% 3 games
Win % vs top 8 43% 7 games
Win % vs bottom 10 80% 10 games
Close game win % 33% 3 games
Home win % 62% 8 games
Away win % 67% 9 games
Interstate win % 62% 8 games
Favourite win % 64% 14 games
Underdog win % 67% 3 games
Fast start rate 53% Led at Q1 in 9 of 17 games
Comeback rate 33% 6 games
Lead held at siren 92% 12 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Brisbane Lions · After OR lost to Western Bulldogs 106-111 (-5) · Ladder 6th Brisbane Lions · After R1 lost to Sydney 60-104 (-44) · Ladder 15th Brisbane Lions · After R3 beat St Kilda 113-80 (+33) · Ladder 13th Brisbane Lions · After R4 beat Collingwood 119-65 (+54) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R5 beat North Melbourne 92-66 (+26) · Ladder 6th Brisbane Lions · After R6 lost to Melbourne 102-104 (-2) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R7 beat Adelaide 127-75 (+52) · Ladder 5th Brisbane Lions · After R8 beat Essendon 143-79 (+64) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R9 beat Carlton 100-89 (+11) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R10 lost to Geelong 76-117 (-41) · Ladder 7th Brisbane Lions · After R11 lost to GWS 88-166 (-78) · Ladder 8th Brisbane Lions · After R12 lost to Fremantle 78-103 (-25) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R13 beat Gold Coast 106-75 (+31) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R14 beat Richmond 115-80 (+35) · Ladder 7th Brisbane Lions · After R16 beat Sydney 126-83 (+43) · Ladder 5th Brisbane Lions · After R17 beat Geelong 123-101 (+22) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R18 beat Essendon 149-59 (+90) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions 4th OR R5 R9 R13 R18

Player power

Top 5 players

Will Ashcroft Mid · 14th league
106
Lachie Neale Mid · 17th league
104.8
Dayne Zorko Mid · 29th league
99.4
Zac Bailey Key fwd · 45th league
92.6
Darcy Wilmot Mid
91.1
Venue performance Ground split
Gabba vs ESS, SYD, FRE 8 games 62% +22.4 +6.7
Marvel Stadium vs ESS, STK 2 games · low sample 100% +48.5 +32.9
One-off venues
Blundstone Arena vs RIC 1 game · low sample 100% +35.0 +19.4
Carrara vs GCS 1 game · low sample 100% +31.0 +15.4
Barossa Park vs NTH 1 game · low sample 100% +26.0 +10.4
Kardinia Park vs GEE 1 game · low sample 100% +22.0 +6.4
MCG vs MEL 1 game · low sample 0% -2.0 -17.6
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -44.0 -59.6
ENGIE Stadium vs GWS 1 game · low sample 0% -78.0 -93.6
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Logan Morris 43 · 2.7 per game
Accuracy Charlie Cameron 73.5% · 2.1 goals per game · 36 goals, 13 behinds from 49 shots
Goal Assists Zac Bailey 17 · 1.1 per game
Marks inside 50 Logan Morris 51 · 3.2 per game
Marks Darcy Wilmot 119 · 7.0 per game
One-Percenters Harris Andrews 110 · 7.9 per game
Disposals Lachie Neale 521 · 30.6 per game
Clearances Lachie Neale 122 · 7.2 per game
Contested Possessions Lachie Neale 221 · 13.0 per game
Tackles Josh Dunkley 112 · 6.6 per game
Clangers Will Ashcroft 53 · 3.1 per game
Free Kicks Against Sam Draper 22 · 1.4 per game
Umpire profile Rub of the green
FK rank 7th Avg diff +0.4

Favourite umpires

Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +11.0 pts

43 matches · FK diff +0.3

Justin Power
Justin Power +10.3 pts

12 matches · FK diff +2.8

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +9.6 pts

35 matches · FK diff +0.8

Least favourite umpires

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis -14.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.8

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair -9.4 pts

8 matches · FK diff +2.5

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -9.1 pts

31 matches · FK diff +1.4

Show all 34 umpire rows
Simon Meredith
Simon Meredith +11.0 pts

43 matches · FK diff +0.3

Justin Power
Justin Power +10.3 pts

12 matches · FK diff +2.8

Jacob Mollison
Jacob Mollison +9.6 pts

35 matches · FK diff +0.8

Nicholas McGinness
Nicholas McGinness +8.5 pts

8 matches · FK diff +3.4

Eleni Tee
Eleni Tee +8.0 pts

10 matches · FK diff -1.3

Andre Gianfagna
Andre Gianfagna +8.0 pts

29 matches · FK diff +0.3

Hayden Meyer
Hayden Meyer +7.0 pts

32 matches · FK diff +0.1

Nathan Williamson
Nathan Williamson +6.4 pts

26 matches · FK diff +0.3

Nathan Toner
Nathan Toner +4.9 pts

7 matches · FK diff +0.7

Rob O'Gorman
Rob O'Gorman +3.0 pts

31 matches · FK diff +0.5

Mathew Nicholls
Mathew Nicholls +2.3 pts

26 matches · FK diff +2.0

Daniel Johanson
Daniel Johanson +1.8 pts

7 matches · FK diff -2.6

Curtis Deboy
Curtis Deboy +1.6 pts

27 matches · FK diff -1.5

Jamie Broadbent
Jamie Broadbent +1.1 pts

15 matches · FK diff +0.7

Andrew Heffernan
Andrew Heffernan +0.6 pts

9 matches · FK diff +1.9

Nick Brown
Nick Brown +0.2 pts

22 matches · FK diff +0.1

Paul Rebeschini
Paul Rebeschini -0.4 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +2.2

Nick Foot
Nick Foot -0.5 pts

37 matches · FK diff -0.2

Matt Stevic
Matt Stevic -0.7 pts

21 matches · FK diff +3.5

Craig Fleer
Craig Fleer -1.3 pts

43 matches · FK diff +0.3

John Howorth
John Howorth -1.7 pts

17 matches · FK diff +3.4

Brent Wallace
Brent Wallace -1.8 pts

27 matches · FK diff +0.6

Alex Whetton
Alex Whetton -1.8 pts

22 matches · FK diff +3.3

Cameron Dore
Cameron Dore -2.7 pts

20 matches · FK diff +1.0

Leigh Fisher
Leigh Fisher -4.0 pts

41 matches · FK diff -0.8

Peter Bailes
Peter Bailes -4.2 pts

4 matches · low confidence · FK diff +0.8

Brett Rosebury
Brett Rosebury -4.4 pts

27 matches · FK diff -0.9

Andrew Stephens
Andrew Stephens -4.7 pts

54 matches · FK diff +1.6

Cameron Jones
Cameron Jones -5.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff +3.8

Martin Rodger
Martin Rodger -5.2 pts

7 matches · FK diff +3.4

Tom Bryce
Tom Bryce -7.7 pts

5 matches · low confidence · FK diff +5.2

Brendan Hosking
Brendan Hosking -9.1 pts

31 matches · FK diff +1.4

Andrew Adair
Andrew Adair -9.4 pts

8 matches · FK diff +2.5

Nick Jankovskis
Nick Jankovskis -14.1 pts

6 matches · low confidence · FK diff -2.8

Only active umpire-club samples with at least 4 lined matches are shown. Samples up to 6 matches stay visible but carry a low-confidence label.

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
5th projected finish 14.7 wins 11W after 17 played
93% Wildcard round
Top 10
76% Home final
Top 6
46% Double chance
Top 4
10% Top 2
Top 2

Round 17 of 23 · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

8-10 -10.9 avg margin · 18 games · Usable sample

Brisbane Lions have gone 8-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.