AFL Insights

2026 season

Brisbane Lions

6-4 Gabba
Ladder 7th Current position
Power -1.4 13th in league
True form Falling TFR momentum: -2.9
Injuries Minor 2.6 pts
Confidence Medium Medium tipping confidence
Next opponent
GWS
ENGIE Stadium · Sun 24 May, 12:30 PM AEST

Tipping insight

Brisbane Lions need matchup context

Brisbane Lions struggle vs top 8 sides (25%) but reliably handle bottom 10 sides (83%).

Avg next-5 win chance 52%
Falling Slightly favourable Injuries: Minor

Fixture outlook

Next 5 games

Slightly favourable
Avg opp rank 7.6 Slightly favourable · 52% avg win prob Toughest Fremantle
A Favourable
GWS Ladder 13th · R11 · ENGIE 88% win · +3 pts
True form +10.0 advantage Opp major injury load
H Tough
FRE Ladder 2nd · R12 · Gabba 28% win
True form -13.9 deficit
A Tough
GCS Ladder 4th · R13 · Carrara 41% win
True form -5.6 deficit
A Favourable
RIC Ladder 18th · R14 · Bellerive Oval 64% win
True form +21.3 advantage
H Tough
SYD Ladder 1st · R16 · Gabba 39% win
True form -11.8 deficit

Projected 2.6 wins from the next 5.

Form + Last 5

Recent tipping read

Form: Stable · Mixed trend
Form heat Stable
Last 5 record 3-2
Margin Avg margin +16.8
H L
GEE -41 · R10 Underperformed
H W
CAR +11 · R9 Underperformed
A W
ESS +64 · R8 Overperformed
H W
ADE +52 · R7 Overperformed
A L
MEL -2 · R6 Underperformed

Availability

Injury health

Full injuries
Minor 87% 9 listed injuries
Clear Manageable Major
Jarrod Berry Test
Noah Answerth 2 weeks
Jack Payne TBC
Oscar Allen 10-12 weeks

As of 12 May 2026 · Stable injury load

Team snapshot

Current read

Power rating -1.4
Lower League avg Stronger
13th power rank
Ladder rank 7th
True form 2.1
Cool Par Strong
8th
Record 6-4
TFR momentum -2.9
Declining Stable Rising
Rate of power-rating change (not results-based)
Avg margin +14.8
Injury load 2.6 pts
Clear Manageable Major
Lower is healthier
Best 22 available 87%
Free-kick ladder 10th +0.0
Close games 1-2 3 close games

Results profile

Biggest scalp and worst loss

Biggest scalp

W v Adelaide
+52 Opp 4th R7 Gabba

+26.5 pts vs line

Season profile

Where the wins are coming from

Played difficulty Average draw SoS -0.3
Remaining difficulty Average run Avg opp rank 9.4
Upset win % 0% 1 game · low sample
Win % vs top 8 25% 4 games
Win % vs bottom 10 83% 6 games
Close game win % 33% 3 games
Home win % 60% 5 games
Away win % 60% 5 games
Interstate win % 60% 5 games
Favourite win % 67% 9 games
Underdog win % 0% 1 game · low sample
Fast start rate 40% Led at Q1 in 4 of 10 games
Comeback rate 50% 4 games
Lead held at siren 86% 7 games

Season trend

Ladder, true form, power, injury and momentum by round

OR-R10

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Brisbane Lions · After OR lost to Western Bulldogs 106-111 (-5) · Ladder 6th Brisbane Lions · After R1 lost to Sydney 60-104 (-44) · Ladder 15th Brisbane Lions · After R3 beat St Kilda 113-80 (+33) · Ladder 13th Brisbane Lions · After R4 beat Collingwood 119-65 (+54) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R5 beat North Melbourne 92-66 (+26) · Ladder 6th Brisbane Lions · After R6 lost to Melbourne 102-104 (-2) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R7 beat Adelaide 127-75 (+52) · Ladder 5th Brisbane Lions · After R8 beat Essendon 143-79 (+64) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R9 beat Carlton 100-89 (+11) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R10 lost to Geelong 76-117 (-41) · Ladder 7th Brisbane Lions 7th OR R1 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Player power

Top 5 players

Lachie Neale Mid · 17th league
105.5
Will Ashcroft Mid · 23rd league
101.1
Dayne Zorko Mid · 29th league
99.3
Zac Bailey Key fwd
90.4
Josh Dunkley Mid
88.5
Venue performance Ground split
Gabba vs GEE, CAR, ADE 5 games 60% +14.2 -0.6
Marvel Stadium vs ESS, STK 2 games · low sample 100% +48.5 +33.7
One-off venues
Barossa Park vs NTH 1 game · low sample 100% +26.0 +11.2
MCG vs MEL 1 game · low sample 0% -2.0 -16.8
SCG vs SYD 1 game · low sample 0% -44.0 -58.8
Stat leaders Club leaders
Goals Logan Morris 23 · 2.6 per game
Accuracy Charlie Cameron 79.3% · 2.3 goals per game · 23 goals, 6 behinds from 29 shots
Goal Assists Charlie Cameron 12 · 1.2 per game
Marks inside 50 Logan Morris 32 · 3.6 per game
Marks Ryan Lester 83 · 8.3 per game
One-Percenters Harris Andrews 57 · 8.1 per game
Disposals Lachie Neale 306 · 30.6 per game
Clearances Lachie Neale 71 · 7.1 per game
Contested Possessions Lachie Neale 127 · 12.7 per game
Tackles Josh Dunkley 62 · 6.2 per game
Clangers Will Ashcroft 41 · 4.1 per game
Free Kicks Against Sam Draper 17 · 1.9 per game

Season projection

Finals race

Likely finals
8th projected finish 12.1 wins 6W after 10 played
65% Wildcard round
Top 10
32% Home final
Top 6
17% Double chance
Top 4

Mid season (Rd 10 of 23) · 5,000-season simulation · TFR noise + baseline calibration

Bogey team

Geelong

7-10 -12.8 avg margin · 17 games · Usable sample

Brisbane Lions have gone 7-10 against Geelong across the last 10 seasons.