AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 6.87/9 tips (4th hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Port Adelaide over St Kilda

$2.34 · model 60% vs market 41%

Highest confidence

Adelaide over Carlton

88% confidence · ~34 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
SYD v GCS · 51%

What stands out

Round storylines

Market mispricing
GWS
-1.2 wins vs market expectation

GWS have been shakier favourites than the market expects

Since 2025, they are 10-5 as favourites against 11.2 expected wins from closing odds, and -8.1 points a game against the line.

15 favourite games 10-5 outright 6-9 vs line
Bellwether
Sydney
vs
Gold Coast
+35 pp win-rate swing

Errol Gulden has been a barometer for Sydney

Sydney are 9-3 in 12 games with him since 2025, but 6-9 in 15 without him.

with: 9-3 without: 6-9 116 rating

Round 5  ·  Thu 9 Apr, 7:10 PM ACST

Adelaide v Carlton

Adelaide Oval

Tip

88%
Adelaide

High confidence ~34 pts

Form

Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 22.5 pts better.

Rub of the green

Adelaide big edge Adelaide +9.0 pts · ADE +6.6 · CAR -2.5
AI agrees Flat-track bully: ADE 🌧 Wet

Round 5  ·  Fri 10 Apr, 7:10 PM ACST

Collingwood v Fremantle

Adelaide Oval

Tip

56%
Fremantle

Coin toss confidence ~10 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 30.8 pts better.

Weather

Fremantle solid edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.
AI dissent 🌧 Wet

Round 5  ·  Sat 11 Apr, 12:05 PM ACST

North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Barossa Park

Tip

82%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~36 pts

Injury

Brisbane Lions solid edge Outs currently sit 7-5 across the two squads.

Form

North Melbourne small edge Recent margin form is running 3.2 pts better.
AI agrees

Round 5  ·  Sat 11 Apr, 12:45 PM ACST

Essendon v Melbourne

Adelaide Oval

Tip

82%
Melbourne

High confidence ~26 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 44.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Essendon big edge Essendon +4.1 pts · ESS +1.5 · MEL -2.6
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 5  ·  Sat 11 Apr, 3:45 PM ACST

Sydney v Gold Coast

Norwood Oval

Tip

51%
Sydney

Coin toss confidence ~8 pts Coin toss

Rub of the green

Sydney big edge Sydney +7.1 pts · SYD +1.6 · GCS -5.5

Form

Sydney solid edge Recent margin form is running 13.8 pts better.
Coin toss AI agrees

Round 5  ·  Sat 11 Apr, 7:05 PM ACST

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

Adelaide Oval

Tip

59%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~7 pts

Form

Western Bulldogs big edge Recent margin form is running 18.2 pts better.

Weather

Western Bulldogs big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 5  ·  Sun 12 Apr, 12:00 PM ACST

Geelong v West Coast

Norwood Oval

Tip

88%
Geelong

High confidence ~62 pts

Form

Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 32.2 pts better.

Injury

Geelong solid edge Outs currently sit 5-9 across the two squads.
AI agrees

Round 5  ·  Sun 12 Apr, 2:45 PM ACST

GWS v Richmond

Barossa Park

Tip

77%
GWS

High confidence ~24 pts

Form

GWS big edge Recent margin form is running 20.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Richmond solid edge Richmond +3.4 pts · GWS +0.1 · RIC +3.6

Round 5  ·  Sun 12 Apr, 6:45 PM ACST

Port Adelaide v St Kilda

Adelaide Oval

Tip

60%
Port Adelaide

Medium confidence ~1 pts

Form

Port Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 27.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

St Kilda big edge St Kilda +4.6 pts · PORT -1.7 · STK +2.9
AI agrees 💀 Bogey: STK