AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 7.28/9 tips (3rd easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Carlton over Collingwood

$2.30 · model 44% vs market 41%

Highest confidence

Gold Coast over Essendon

88% confidence · ~46 pts

Closest calls

Tightest decisions
CAR v COL · 56% GEE v WBD · 67%

What stands out

Round storylines

Bellwether
Gold Coast
vs
Essendon
+34 pp win-rate swing

Jordan Ridley has been a barometer for Essendon

Essendon are 5-6 in 11 games with him since 2025, but 2-15 in 17 without him.

He is in this week's availability frame (2 weeks), so that split matters more than usual.

with: 5-6 without: 2-15 106 rating
Fixture fairness
Collingwood
9 of 10 games in Melbourne

Collingwood barely leave Melbourne over the next 10

9 of their next 10 are in Melbourne, including 8 at MCG.

The draw looks busy on paper, but the travel burden barely moves.

8 at MCG 4 listed away but local 1st biggest local-city run

Round 6  ·  Thu 16 Apr, 7:30 PM AEST

Carlton v Collingwood

MCG

Tip

56%
Collingwood

Coin toss confidence ~3 pts

Weather

Collingwood big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.

Venue

Collingwood solid edge shared venue softens the listed home edge
AI dissent 🌧 Wet

Round 6  ·  Fri 17 Apr, 7:20 PM AEST

Geelong v Western Bulldogs

Kardinia Park

Tip

67%
Geelong

Medium confidence ~14 pts

Venue

Geelong big edge true home ground · fortress edge

Rub of the green

Geelong solid edge Geelong +2.9 pts · GEE +1.8 · WBD -1.1
💀 Bogey: WBD

Round 6  ·  Fri 17 Apr, 7:50 PM AEST

Sydney v GWS

SCG

Tip

77%
Sydney

High confidence ~42 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 62.2 pts better.

Weather

Sydney big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.
AI agrees Flat-track bully: SYD 🌧 Wet

Round 6  ·  Sat 18 Apr, 1:15 PM AEST

Gold Coast v Essendon

Carrara

Tip

88%
Gold Coast

High confidence ~46 pts

Form

Gold Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 34.8 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Gold Coast big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
AI agrees

Round 6  ·  Sat 18 Apr, 4:15 PM AEST

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide

Marvel Stadium

Tip

86%
Hawthorn

High confidence ~31 pts

Travel / turnaround

Hawthorn big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential

Form

Hawthorn solid edge Recent margin form is running 7.8 pts better.
AI agrees Flat-track bully: HAW

Round 6  ·  Sat 18 Apr, 7:05 PM ACST

Adelaide v St Kilda

Adelaide Oval

Tip

67%
Adelaide

Medium confidence ~14 pts

Rub of the green

Adelaide big edge Adelaide +5.9 pts · ADE -1.0 · STK -6.9

Travel / turnaround

Adelaide big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
AI agrees 💀 Bogey: STK

Round 6  ·  Sun 19 Apr, 1:10 PM AEST

North Melbourne v Richmond

Marvel Stadium

Tip

77%
North Melbourne

High confidence ~24 pts

Form

North Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 51.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

Richmond solid edge Richmond +2.7 pts · NTH -3.4 · RIC -0.7
AI agrees

Round 6  ·  Sun 19 Apr, 3:15 PM AEST

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

MCG

Tip

81%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~31 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 29.8 pts better.

Injury

Brisbane Lions solid edge Outs currently sit 9-5 across the two squads.
AI agrees 💀 Bogey: BRL

Round 6  ·  Sun 19 Apr, 3:10 PM AWST

West Coast v Fremantle

Optus Stadium

Tip

86%
Fremantle

High confidence ~42 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 67.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Fremantle big edge Fremantle +4.8 pts · WCE -3.1 · FRE +1.8
AI agrees