AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 7.02/9 tips (5th easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

North Melbourne over GWS

$2.92 · model 47% vs market 33%

Highest confidence

Fremantle over Carlton

88% confidence · ~34 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
GWS v NTH · 53%

What stands out

Round storylines

Travel quirk
Fremantle
33 pp state split

Fremantle are a different side once they stay local

They are 3-0 in the same state and 2-1 interstate.

The fixture keeps them in the version of themselves that has shown up more often.

2-1 interstate 3-0 same-state
Bellwether
Hawthorn
vs
Gold Coast
+53 pp win-rate swing

Bailey Humphrey has been a barometer for Gold Coast

Gold Coast are 19-7 in 26 games with him since 2025, but 1-4 in 5 without him.

He is in this week's availability frame (3+ weeks), so that split matters more than usual.

with: 19-7 without: 1-4 81 rating

Round 7  ·  Thu 23 Apr, 7:30 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Sydney

Marvel Stadium

Tip

61%
Sydney

Medium confidence ~27 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 64.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Western Bulldogs solid edge Western Bulldogs +3.6 pts · WBD -0.9 · SYD -4.5
AI dissent Flat-track bully: SYD

Round 7  ·  Fri 24 Apr, 7:40 PM AEST

Richmond v Melbourne

MCG

Tip

81%
Melbourne

High confidence ~33 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 58.2 pts better.

Venue

Melbourne solid edge shared venue softens the listed home edge

Round 7  ·  Sat 25 Apr, 12:30 PM AEST

Hawthorn v Gold Coast

UTAS Stadium

Tip

59%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~5 pts

Rub of the green

Hawthorn big edge Hawthorn +8.5 pts · HAW +1.7 · GCS -6.8

Form

Hawthorn solid edge Recent margin form is running 9.0 pts better.
AI agrees

Round 7  ·  Sat 25 Apr, 3:20 PM AEST

Essendon v Collingwood

MCG

Tip

81%
Collingwood

High confidence ~25 pts

Rub of the green

Collingwood big edge Collingwood +8.6 pts · ESS -4.5 · COL +4.1

Injury

Collingwood solid edge Outs currently sit 8-2 across the two squads.
AI agrees

Round 7  ·  Sat 25 Apr, 6:05 PM ACST

Port Adelaide v Geelong

Adelaide Oval

Tip

81%
Geelong

High confidence ~24 pts

Form

Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 26.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

Port Adelaide big edge Port Adelaide +5.3 pts · PORT +1.8 · GEE -3.5
AI agrees 🌧 Wet 💀 Bogey: PORT

Round 7  ·  Sat 25 Apr, 6:15 PM AWST

Fremantle v Carlton

Optus Stadium

Tip

88%
Fremantle

High confidence ~34 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 47.5 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Fremantle solid edge interstate travel · rest differential
AI agrees

Round 7  ·  Sun 26 Apr, 1:10 PM AEST

St Kilda v West Coast

Marvel Stadium

Tip

76%
St Kilda

High confidence ~37 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 53.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

St Kilda big edge St Kilda +12.5 pts · STK +5.7 · WCE -6.9
AI agrees

Round 7  ·  Sun 26 Apr, 3:15 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide

Gabba

Tip

76%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~23 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 23.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Adelaide big edge Adelaide +8.1 pts · BRL -4.7 · ADE +3.5
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 7  ·  Sun 26 Apr, 4:40 PM AEST

GWS v North Melbourne

Manuka Oval

Tip

53%
GWS

Coin toss confidence ~6 pts Coin toss

Form

North Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 23.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

GWS big edge GWS +4.8 pts · GWS +2.0 · NTH -2.8
Coin toss AI dissent