AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 7.08/9 tips (2nd easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Western Bulldogs over Fremantle

$2.96 · model 42% vs market 32%

Highest confidence

Brisbane Lions over Essendon

88% confidence · ~51 pts

Closest calls

Tightest decisions
WBD v FRE · 58% ADE v PORT · 63%

What stands out

Round storylines

Streak oddity
St Kilda
L-W-L-W-L-W last 6

St Kilda have not repeated a result in over a month

Their last 6 read L-W-L-W-L-W.

Trying to pin a clean short-term trend on them has been awkward.

3-3 overall perfect alternation
Win-stat link
Hawthorn
6-0 when winning contested possessions

Hawthorn keep turning contested possessions wins into actual wins

They are 6-0 when they win contested possessions, versus 0% when they do not.

It is a less obvious control stat than goals or accuracy, and it has been tied tightly to their results.

100% win rate +15.5 contested possessions gap 7 decisive stat games

Round 8  ·  Thu 30 Apr, 7:30 PM AEST

Collingwood v Hawthorn

MCG

Tip

80%
Hawthorn

High confidence ~28 pts

Form

Hawthorn big edge Recent margin form is running 17.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Collingwood solid edge Collingwood +2.5 pts · COL +1.7 · HAW -0.7
AI agrees Flat-track bully: HAW

Round 8  ·  Fri 1 May, 7:30 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle

Marvel Stadium

Tip

58%
Fremantle

Coin toss confidence ~18 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 56.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

Fremantle solid edge Fremantle +2.3 pts · WBD +0.2 · FRE +2.5
AI dissent

Round 8  ·  Fri 1 May, 7:40 PM ACST

Adelaide v Port Adelaide

Adelaide Oval

Tip

63%
Adelaide

Medium confidence ~11 pts

Form

Port Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 20.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Adelaide big edge Adelaide +5.5 pts · ADE +2.7 · PORT -2.8
AI agrees

Round 8  ·  Sat 2 May, 12:35 PM AEST

Essendon v Brisbane Lions

Marvel Stadium

Tip

88%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~51 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 51.2 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Essendon solid edge interstate travel · rest differential
AI agrees

Round 8  ·  Sat 2 May, 2:15 PM AWST

West Coast v Richmond

Optus Stadium

Tip

77%
West Coast

High confidence ~32 pts

Form

Richmond big edge Recent margin form is running 26.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

West Coast big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
AI agrees

Round 8  ·  Sat 2 May, 4:35 PM AEST

Geelong v North Melbourne

Kardinia Park

Tip

77%
Geelong

High confidence ~24 pts

Venue

Geelong big edge true home ground · fortress edge

Form

Geelong solid edge Recent margin form is running 9.5 pts better.
AI agrees 💀 Bogey: NTH

Round 8  ·  Sat 2 May, 7:35 PM AEST

Carlton v St Kilda

Marvel Stadium

Tip

64%
St Kilda

Medium confidence ~15 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 34.5 pts better.

Rub of the green

St Kilda solid edge St Kilda +3.2 pts · CAR -0.0 · STK +3.1
AI agrees

Round 8  ·  Sun 3 May, 3:15 PM AEST

Sydney v Melbourne

SCG

Tip

85%
Sydney

High confidence ~41 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 59.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Sydney solid edge Sydney +3.4 pts · SYD +6.0 · MEL +2.6
AI agrees Flat-track bully: SYD

Round 8  ·  Sun 3 May, 7:20 PM AEST

Gold Coast v GWS

Carrara

Tip

71%
Gold Coast

High confidence ~22 pts

Form

GWS big edge Recent margin form is running 20.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

GWS big edge GWS +5.8 pts · GCS -2.5 · GWS +3.3
AI dissent 🌧 Wet 💀 Bogey: GCS