Roughie of the week
Collingwood over Geelong$2.71 · model 41% vs market 35%
Gold Coast's interstate split still matters
They are 1-3 interstate but 4-0 in the same state.
This week drags that interstate split back into view.
Highest confidence
Brisbane Lions over Carlton88% confidence · ~36 pts
Closest calls
1 coin toss
PORT v WBD · 52%
What stands out
Round storylines
Gold Coast
75 pp
state split
1-3 interstate
4-0 same-state
Melbourne
-1.7
wins vs market expectation
Melbourne have been shakier favourites than the market expects
Since 2025, they are 5-4 as favourites against 6.7 expected wins from closing odds, and -14.9 points a game against the line.
The market is asking them to wear that same label again this week.
9 favourite games
5-4 outright
4-5 vs line
Tip
63%Travel / turnaround
Fremantle big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differentialRub of the green
Hawthorn solid edge Hawthorn +2.7 pts · FRE -0.2 · HAW +2.6Round 9 · Fri 8 May, 7:30 PM AEST
Tip
88%Form
Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 56.5 pts better.Travel / turnaround
Brisbane Lions big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differentialRound 9 · Fri 8 May, 7:40 PM ACST
Tip
52%Form
Port Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 51.2 pts better.Venue
Port Adelaide big edge true home ground · fortress edgeRound 9 · Sat 9 May, 1:15 PM AEST
Tip
81%Form
Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 40.8 pts better.Travel / turnaround
North Melbourne solid edge interstate travel · rest differential
Tip
76%Form
GWS big edge Recent margin form is running 26.8 pts better.Travel / turnaround
GWS big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differentialRound 9 · Sat 9 May, 6:40 PM ACST
Tip
64%Form
St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 51.2 pts better.Rub of the green
Gold Coast solid edge Gold Coast +2.5 pts · GCS -3.2 · STK -5.7Round 9 · Sat 9 May, 7:35 PM AEST
Tip
59%Form
Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 16.0 pts better.Rub of the green
Geelong big edge Geelong +7.4 pts · GEE +6.4 · COL -1.0Round 9 · Sun 10 May, 1:10 PM AEST
Tip
88%Form
Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 52.0 pts better.Travel / turnaround
Melbourne big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
