AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 7.03/9 tips (5th hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Collingwood over Geelong

$2.71 · model 41% vs market 35%

Highest confidence

Brisbane Lions over Carlton

88% confidence · ~36 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
PORT v WBD · 52%

What stands out

Round storylines

Travel quirk
Gold Coast
75 pp state split

Gold Coast's interstate split still matters

They are 1-3 interstate but 4-0 in the same state.

1-3 interstate 4-0 same-state
Market mispricing
Melbourne
-1.7 wins vs market expectation

Melbourne have been shakier favourites than the market expects

Since 2025, they are 5-4 as favourites against 6.7 expected wins from closing odds, and -14.9 points a game against the line.

9 favourite games 5-4 outright 4-5 vs line

Round 9  ·  Thu 7 May, 6:10 PM AWST

Fremantle v Hawthorn

Optus Stadium

Tip

63%
Fremantle

Medium confidence ~8 pts

Rub of the green

Hawthorn big edge Hawthorn +5.7 pts · FRE -0.8 · HAW +4.9

Travel / turnaround

Fremantle big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential

Round 9  ·  Fri 8 May, 7:30 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Carlton

Gabba

Tip

88%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~36 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 56.5 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Brisbane Lions big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
💀 Bogey: CAR

Round 9  ·  Fri 8 May, 7:40 PM ACST

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

Adelaide Oval

Tip

52%
Port Adelaide

Coin toss confidence ~2 pts Coin toss

Form

Port Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 51.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

Western Bulldogs big edge Western Bulldogs +4.5 pts · PORT -0.0 · WBD +4.5
Coin toss

Round 9  ·  Sat 9 May, 1:15 PM AEST

North Melbourne v Sydney

Marvel Stadium

Tip

81%
Sydney

High confidence ~22 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 40.8 pts better.

Injury

North Melbourne solid edge North Melbourne 2.1 pts lost vs Sydney 7.0.
Flat-track bully: SYD

Round 9  ·  Sat 9 May, 4:15 PM AEST

GWS v Essendon

ENGIE Stadium

Tip

76%
GWS

High confidence ~36 pts

Form

GWS big edge Recent margin form is running 26.8 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

GWS big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential

Round 9  ·  Sat 9 May, 6:40 PM ACST

Gold Coast v St Kilda

TIO Stadium

Tip

64%
Gold Coast

Medium confidence ~18 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 51.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

Gold Coast solid edge Gold Coast +2.8 pts · GCS -3.5 · STK -6.3

Round 9  ·  Sat 9 May, 7:35 PM AEST

Geelong v Collingwood

MCG

Tip

59%
Geelong

Medium confidence ~9 pts

Form

Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 16.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Geelong big edge Geelong +6.8 pts · GEE +6.1 · COL -0.7
🌧 Wet 💀 Bogey: COL

Round 9  ·  Sun 10 May, 1:10 PM AEST

Melbourne v West Coast

Marvel Stadium

Tip

88%
Melbourne

High confidence ~32 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 52.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Melbourne big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential

Round 9  ·  Sun 10 May, 3:15 PM AEST

Richmond v Adelaide

MCG

Tip

88%
Adelaide

High confidence ~49 pts

Form

Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 38.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Adelaide big edge Adelaide +7.4 pts · RIC -1.0 · ADE +6.3
Flat-track bully: ADE